NFL 2021

Week 17

What you see below is our early leans. Many of the selections below will stay the same and some will be moved into official plays with wagers on Sunday. However, there is also the possibility that we see, read or get a sense that something is not right with one of our selections and change our pick. There are several different criteria we use to grade a game and make it an official play and a lot of things can happen or change between Friday and Sunday.

We’re intent on providing our readers with the best possible selections and doing so on Sunday instead of Friday just makes more sense. We made that change two years ago and ended up going 81-57 (+64 units) in 2018, 65-59 in 2019 (+16 units) and 55-62 in last year's unusual pandemic season. Again, we’ll have all write-ups (except Monday Night Football) posted on Friday but our actual wagers won’t be posted until Sunday morning between 10 AM and 12:00 PM EST

-------------------------

Saturday, Jan 2

TENNESSEE -3½ over Miami

1:00 PM EST. The Dolphins have been on a hell of a run the second half of the season. Their seven-game winning streak after a 1-7 start is one of the biggest u-turns in league history. The Fish are the only team to have both a seven game losing streak and a seven game run of Ws in the same season. It’s what the NFL has always wanted. Parody! Errr. Parity!

A 20-3 Monday night win over the Saints to close out Week 16 appears to have set the Dolphins up for the postseason, as Miami currently sits in the #7 hole ahead of the Chargers, Raiders and Ravens, who are also 8-7. The 7-7-1 Steelers are also still technically “in it”, but they have too many teams to leapfrog.

The ‘Fins’ swim to the playoffs is simple. Win out and they are in. Only one problem—Miami has two pretty tough games to finish the year. They host the Patriots in Week 18 and must travel to Nashville to face a familiar face.

The “revenge” angle is one that we usually make fun of, but in this case, it’s a dish that may be served in its best state. Cold. After six years in Miami, Ryan Tannehill was sent packing. It’s not hard to understand why. Dude was 42-46 and due a big chunk of change. Easy decision, right? Well, after investing the time and money into Tannehill, the Fish let him walk in favor of another rebuild. Enter the Titans. One man’s garbage as they say.

Since arriving in the Honky Tonk State, Tannehill has been a steady hand for the Titans. Is he exciting? No. Does he get the headlines? Nope. Does the dude care? We doubt it. At 28-13, Tannehill helped to turn around the Titans’ fortunes. Derrick Henry has led the way in that department, but last we checked he hasn’t been seen in a while. Neither has receivers Julio Jones or A.J. Brown at various times this season. Yet, the Titans are still 10-5. That’s damn impressive.

The Titans’ future breaks down as such. Tennessee can clinch the AFC South with a win here or a Colts loss to the Raiders. Even if the Titans do not beat Miami, they can still get in if the Ravens and Chargers both stumble. They can also sneak in if Ravens and Patriots both lose or if the Chargers and Pats drop their games. A shot at the #1 seed is also not out of the question, as the Titans trail the Chiefs by one game.

Thankfully we are not in the business of predicting the results of these games. With many moving parts, we are simply going to play the number here. An opening line of -3½ is a “favorite” number and heavily suggests that the Titans get the nod here. The Dolphins' stock is soaring, while the Titans, just got off the schneid with a comeback win over the 49ers after losing three of their last four. This looks to be a short price on the superior side. With the Dolphins’ set to host the Pats next week, asking them to perform at their best here on a short week might not be that prudent. The play here is the Titans or nothing. Recommendation: TENNESSEE -3½ -105

BALTIMORE +5½ -105 over L.A. Rams

1:00 PM EST. The Ravens have dropped four straight games and look to be without starting quarterback Lamar Jackson again in Week 17 after he once again did not practice in advance of this game. The market has responded to that information and this line has grown from its opening of Baltimore taking back 2½ points. Jackson hasn’t officially been ruled out, but when a dude doesn’t practice all week, it’s not likely he’s going to play. Lamar isn’t the only one on the injury report this week either, as the Ravens listed Marquise Brown, Devin Duvernay, Dealin Hayes and Patrick Ricardas questionable as well. Out are corner Anthony Averett and guard Ben Powers, while linebacker Odafe Oweh is expected to sit out with a foot injury. On the surface, that doesn’t leave many warm bodies for the Ravens to call on.

Those injury chasers that targeted the Ravens in Week 15 were rewarded handsomely with an armchair classic. Baltimore was never in that game and its defense gave up a Bengals record 525 yards passing to Joe Burrow and company. There appears to be little interest from this market to switch gears despite the Ravens’ stock trading lower than it should. At 8-7, Baltimore’s path to the playoffs is a little bumpy, to say the least, but it’s not an impossible mountain to climb, however, it will need some help.

Meanwhile, the Rams have recovered from their November blues and sit at 11-4, which is currently good for the third seed in the NFC. Last Sunday LA clinched a Wild Card spot, but it surely has its sight set on the West division crown. To accomplish that goal, the Rams would need a win here in Baltimore combined with a Cardinals loss to the Cowboys. Despite a run of four wins in a row, we have a hard time getting behind Matthew Stafford spotting road points in his current form. Dude has struggled as of late, including a three interception performance at Minnesota in Week 16. When you lose the turnover battle 3-1, you are not supposed to win the game, but the Vikings could not help themselves and every time they looked to pull within striking distance, they’d give up those points on the next possession or two. While we do not know who is going to start for the Ravens (last week it was Josh Johnson), we also do not care. A line like this is lock room fodder and it ought to be taped up in every stall. The last time the Ravens were being disrespected at home like this was just two weeks ago against the Packers. As a 9½ point pooch, Baltimore dropped a 31-30 decision and was just a two-point conversion from winning that game. A better result here is not out of the realm of possibilities. Recommendation: BALTIMORE +5½ -105

CINCINNATI +5 -105 over Kansas City

1:00 PM EST. Joe Burrow had a career day with over 500 yards passing against the rival Ravens, but when you play for the Bengals, a performance like that may get overlooked, especially when Patrick Mahomes is on the other sideline.

The Chiefs are locked into a playoff spot by way of another AFC West title, but still, have a shot at the #1 see and the first round bye. It’s a far cry from where Kansas City was two months into the season when the Chiefs were just 3-4. Since that error filled 27-3 blowout loss to the Titans, KC has ripped off eight wins in a row. If that success wasn’t enough, the Chiefs have cashed tickets in six straight. That renewed trust will be amplified greatly by the return of Travis Kelce, who missed last week’s 36-10 drubbing of the Steelers. The market thinks it knows what it is getting with Kansas City, but the Bengals just might be the best team in the AFC.

It might be easy to discount the Bengals’ big numbers against the free falling Lamar Jackson-less Ravens, but if it were Patty Mahomes that threw for 525 yards, we would not have heard the end of it. Those 525 yards passing were a franchise record. Burrow is surrounded by arguably the best group of wide receivers in the league in Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd, but his impact on those players (Higgins and Chase specifically) cannot be ignored. Mix in Joe Mixon, who is the second leading rusher in the NFL behind Jonathan Taylor and you’ve got a team that can wear you down and posts a major in a flash by way of the long ball.

The road to the postseason for Cincinnati is clear. A win here (or Ravens loss) combined with a Steelers loss or tie and the AFC North is the Bengals. Cincy sits above the Bills in the AFC standings based on its conference record. Head coach Zac Taylor sounds like his group is focused on the task at hand, "No moment is too big for our guys right now. They've risen to the occasion in a lot of different games. Our guys have had the right mentality, an aggressive mentality." That’s what we like to hear. A Bengals win here is not out of the question and they have a great chance to make our board come Sunday. Recommendation: CINCINNATI -4½ -105

Jacksonville +16 -105 over NEW ENGLAND

1:00 PM EST. We’re not going to use many words on this one, as we doubt there are enough that could make a compelling case for the Jaguars in this spot. First, you have the perception that the Patriots will easily “bounce back” here after getting their butts kicked by Buffalo (their second loss in as many weeks). Then you have the fact that the Jaguars “have nothing to play for” (other than draft position of course). Finally, sprinkle the reputations of these two teams and you’ve got the table set for one team (Patriots) spotting far more points than it should.

With an offensive line that has been decimated by COVID, would we be surprised if the Jaguars got their doors blown off in this game? Of course not, however, we are not in the business of predicting games. As for the Jaguars having their sights on the #1 overall pick in April’s draft, we’re pretty sure that most of the 47 players that are going to dress in teal, black and gold are not interested in what the Jags’ brass have planned for 2022 unless it’s signing their checks. Also consider that unlike Urban Meyer, Jaguars interim head coach Darrell Bevell has paid his dues (over 20 years in the league). It appears the players like playing for him and dude is trying to make a case that he should get the nod next. He’s not the kind of coach that “BB'' likes to run it up on.

Of course, winning and covering are two different beasts. The past two weeks, the Patriots have taken a ton of shit for their very slow starts, which put them behind the 8-ball against the Bills and Colts. The Jaguars are not the Bills or Colts. A quick start here may be in the cards for the Patriots. Even if they get a big lead, we’ll have to wonder when “The Genius” will take his foot off the gas. New England is expected to be without Matthew Judon, who leads the team with 12½ sacks. The next closest on that list is Kyle Van Noy with four. As for what the Pats are “playing for” it is playoff position. With a win here NE is in. Same goes if either the Raiders or Dolphins lose. Both possibilities. So we’ll leave you with a question. It’s not that they can’t, but with their eyes on the big prize, do the Patriots really need to frog stomp the Jaguars? Recommendation: Jacksonville +16 -105

WASHINGTON +4 -105 over Philadelphia

1:00 PM EST. When a football team like the Football Team gets smoked on Sunday Night Football, it’s going to resonate. At 6-9, Washington is very much out of the race and will not be fortunate enough to earn a ticket to the dance with a sub .500 record as it did in 2020. The only role left for the Football team now is that of spoiler. One that should be relished with the 8-7 Eagles coming to Prince George’s Country, MD for a Week 17 affair. Misery loves company and if there is a more miserable team or fanbase than this Football Team, we don’t know who it is.

The Football Team has lost three straight after ripping off four wins in a row despite a decimated lineup. One would have to figure they were riding a little too high in November despite their circumstances, and now WFT is probably taking too much crap for going 0-3 against the Cowboys (twice) and these Eagles. That Week 16 Tuesday night shit show saw half of what is left of Washington’s roster on the COVID list. The league moved the game in hopes that someone other than Nick Mullens would have to start that game. How did that work out for the Football Team? Mullins started and they had to turn around on an extra short week to go to Dallas for Sunday Night Football. Four quarters later it was 56-14 Cowboys. Uh, thanks?

The Eagles were a 10-point choice against Nick Mullens in Week 16 and now they are spotting a much smaller number here on the road in DC. If one was not inclined to look at that now ancient box score, one might think is a modest price to pay to back Philly because it “has something to play for”. Hilarious. It’s not funny because the Eagles don’t have something to play for, they do, but that Washington will just lay down a die because it doesn’t is what has us interested. Further fuelling the Philly fire is the Saints’ loss to the Dolphins on Monday Night Football, which sets up this scenario for the Eagles. Here is how they can seal the deal in Week 17 in order of importance:

1. Eagles win at the Football Team

2. Vikings lose at the Packers

3. Saints lose at home to the Panthers, or the 49ers win their home game against the Texans

It’s not the craziest parlay one could cash, but there are a lot of moving parts there. The toughest of which could be #1 on the list, beating this Football Team. On Sunday morning and over the next two weeks, you are going to hear all about the term “must win” hundreds of times by publications, pick sellers and panels. Not only is it the most overused angle in sports, it assures us inflated points. Recommendation: WASHINGTON +4 -105

N.Y. JETS +13 -105 over Tampa Bay

1:00 PM EST. Never mind the Jets for a moment. This is a situational play against the Brady’s and nothing more. A few things happened in Week 16 that have sealed the Buccaneers playoff fates. Five NFC teams have clinched the seven available playoffs spots with the Packers pretty much cementing the #1 seed. Yes, the Brady’s are just one game back of Green Bay, but both the Rams and Cowboys hold tiebreakers over the Bucs. Tampa’s path to the top seed is so long and winding that it’s not even worth mentioning. With that in mind, we have to question at what point does Bruce Arians begin resting his players in advance of their Super Bowl defense? The Bradys were the six seed a year ago. Do you think they give two craps about playing at home? If history has proven anything it’s that there is far less bullcrap for the road side to deal with in these high-profile games than the home side. One is on a business trip, the other is hosting a party.

Call us crazy, but there might not be a better team to back against the Bucs in a spot like this than the Jets. For the first time in a long time, we can comfortably say that Gang Green is in good hands headed into the offseason. Like Dan Campbell in Detroit, these guys love playing for Robert Saleh. Dude is a stud and the Jets are lucky to have him after running the gambit of garbage coaches—Adam Gase, Todd Bowes, Rex Ryan, Eric Mangini, and yes, even Herm Edward (we could go on, but you get the point). Selah is not some old fossil, he relates to today’s players, which is more important than ever. The generational gap between an old recycled coach and a rookie is wider than the Grand Goddamn Canyon. With Selah on COVID protocols, the Jets played their guts out and beat the Jaguars 25-12. Baby steps, y’all.

Cashing a ticket on Tom Brady to cover two converted touchdowns against the Jets looks good on paper. Maybe if the situation were different, we’d be all over it. Put this game in Mid October and Joe Flacco at QB and now we’re talking, but in the here and now? No thanks. We can only be sure of one thing here. The Jets are going to show up. No doubt. They might not be the most talented 46 on the field Sunday but rarely does that matter. as the Chargers or Cardinals found out the last two weeks, two teams that had MUCH more to play for than Tampa Bay. We’re not saying the Jets are going to win this game outright, but if this game makes our board, we’re not saying they aren’t. This is the Jets Super Bowl. They’ll be ready. Recommendation: N.Y. Jets +13 -105

N.Y. Giants +6 -105 over CHICAGO

1:00 PM EST. Could someone please explain this line to us? Like, seriously? Are we really asking a five-win Bears team to spot a similar price this week at home as they were taking back in Seattle last Sunday? We have so many more questions, but we’ll leave it there. The Bears cannot be favored by this much, thus we must attack.

For better or worse, the Giants cleared the stank in the swamp and let it be known that head coach Joe Judge and quarterback Daniel Jones will be back. We couldn’t care less what the G-Men do, but we do like that they won’t be stumbling and bumbling into the off-season with no plan. A crappy plan is still better than nothing at all.

And what about these Bears? Matt Nagy? Who knows. It’s not likely that general manager Ryan Pace is going to be involved in that decision, but even if he is, we all know which way the sewage flows, even at the highest levels of professional football.

As of this writing, it’s not decided who will start at quarterback for the Bears or the Giants for that matter, but it matters not. On either side.

For the Bears to swing so violently from pooch to chalk in one week just goes to show how week to week this league is. It’s sobering. Chicago won at Seattle in the snow 25-24. Meanwhile, the Giants got whacked, again (34-10 vs Eagles). Sometimes we feel silly for bringing up fodder from weeks past because we assume like us, everyone is watching as much NFL as they can stomach. It’s not that way. Most people get their two or three free games on TV and if their team is playing, that is the game they are going to watch, which is totally cool. Our point is that we need to be reminded that most of you lovely people aren’t nearly as sick and twisted as we are when it comes to Uncle Roger’s Flying Circus. All that said, we’ll end where we started. This number is borderline offensive. Recommendation: N.Y. Giants +6 -105

Atlanta +14½ -105 over BUFFALO

1:00 PM EST. The Matt Ryan rumors are already swirling with landing spots including Pittsburgh, Denver and any other quarterback-starved team you can think of. The Falcons won but did not cover against the Jared Goff-less Lions and Detroit had the ball with the game on the line just outside the Falcons end zone. Those that bet the Dirty Birds in what looked like a gimme never felt good about that bet. We have little doubt the appetite for the Falcons playing outdoors in Western New York is going to be slim to none.

The Bills extracted their “revenge” against the Patriots last Sunday in a 33-21 win in New England. It was a huge victory and if you saw any of the highlights or watched the game, the Bills were partying like it was 1999. With the W, Buffalo pretty much locked itself into the AFC East title. We’ve read that the Bills are “back” after eight weeks of up and down football, but forgive us if we are not ready to crown their ass. RIP, Coach Green.

A breakdown of X’s and O’s is not needed here. This is the definition of an inflated number. If the Bills come out and lay the wood to the Falcons so be it, but the Dirty Birds do have a chance to make life uncomfortable for Buffalo. The Bills must win out to win the AFC East and with the Falcons and Jets left on the schedule, that looks like a gimme. However, we’ve seen this team stumble multiple times this season. Meanwhile, the Falcons are 7-8, yet they are priced here like they are the Texans, Jets, or Panthers. We’re not saying Atlanta is good, but they are better than they are given credit for in the same way the Bills are not nearly as tough as their reputation would have you believe. Scoop up these points and don’t look back. They are an absolute steal. Recommendation: Atlanta +14½ -105 SAN FRANCISCO +12½ -105 over Houston

4:05 PM EST. Well if one had wondered what the market’s appetite would be for a one-thumbed Jimmy Garoppolo, regardless of opponent, we have our answer.

When the market jumps all over a team like the Texans, it’s a big red flag, however, we get it. Houston dealt a huge blow to the Chargers in Week 16 and most of the market was burned. How many teasers and parlays do you think were ripped up in the aftermath of that 41-29 Houston victory? We have the answer. All of them.

We’ll leave the Texans to the side for the moment, as this looks to be a fade on the 49ers, who opened as 15-point chalk. It was a pretty shocking number when you factor Week 16’s results, which included San Fran blowing a double digit lead in the second half on Thursday Night Football. If one ever wondered if this is a week to week league where what you’ve done for me lately is all that matters—this game is it. Here’s a trivia question for you. How many times have the 49ers been favored in this range this season? The answer—none. The 49ers have been favored by no more than 9½ and it happened twice. Week 1 at Detroit and Week 15 versus the Falcons.

Jimmy G’s bunged up thumb is obviously the main story here, as his status is up in the air, with Trey Lance waiting in the wings for his second start. Garoppolo only missed one other game this season, a Week 5 loss to the Cardinals 17-10. Lance had some flashes of brilliance in that one, throwing for 192 yards and adding another 89 on the ground, but he’s lost much of his preseason luster rusting on the bench. Jimmy isn’t the only 49er player who is banged up in Week 17, as leading rusher Elijah Mitchell, who has missed three straight games. At 8-7, the 49ers remain in the Wild Card race mostly thanks to the Vikings’ loss to the Rams. San Fran is the #6 seed currently with these Texans and the Rams to finish the season. A win here over Houston and a Saints loss to the Panthers and the 49ers will punch their ticket to the dance.

We’re not going to take anything away from the Texans’ win over the Chargers in Week 16, but it looks to be a lot to ask having them repeat that performance on the road here. Despite their 4-11 record, the Texans have done some damage at the pay window sporting a 7-8 mark against the spread (identical to the 49ers) and if you don’t think that matters, look at this line movement. Again a big red flag. If one has backed the Texans with regularity this season, we’re not going to talk you out of doing so here, but if you are just jumping on the bandwagon now, we have bad news. That train has left the station. Recommendation: SAN FRANCISCO -12½ -105

Denver +6½ -105 over L.A. CHARGERS

4:05 PM EST. Let us preface this choice by strongly suggesting that if we’re predicting games, we don’t like the Broncos one bit this week but we refuse to predict games because it’s not a winning strategy.

The 7-8 Broncos lost their last two games and bring their 3-4 road record to face the 8-7 Chargers, who also lost their last two. The Broncos won 28-13 when the Chargers visited in Week 12 but perhaps more important is that the Chargers were slapped around by Houston last week in one of the more shocking scores of the year. In a must win game v the Texans, the Bolts lost 41-29. For what it’s worth, the Chargers had 16 players out on the COVID-19 list. The Broncos have not scored more than 13 points in their last three road games.

The Broncos are currently the No. 13 seed which is another way of saying the season is over, so put your calculator down, Pointdexter. There are questions about HC Vic Fangio's future (or lack of one) after three seasons with minimal results and certainly no quarterback. The season winds down with this road game and the home finale in Week 18 when the Broncs host the Chiefs, who do not appear to have the luxury of taking the weekend off.

The Broncos can quit pretending to be somebody now. In a city built on broken dreams, where every fool thinks his lousy luck is about to change, the Broncos finally crapped out and boarded a plane home after a 17-13 loss to the Raiders ripped their ticket to the NFL playoffs to shreds. We honestly have to question what Denver’s motivation is here? Making life miserable for the Chargers is the only thing that might possibly motivate the Broncos but even that’s a stretch after last week’s “must win” loss against the Raiders. The Broncos are a frustrated bunch that now must travel with Drew Lock as their garbage QB.

The Chargers are the No. 8 seed in a format that only uses seven teams. There is no room for error if they have a chance to reach the playoffs, but losing badly in Houston says they do not belong anyway. The offense has been plenty good enough in the recent losses, but the defense gave up 75 points in two games. This is the final home game. Week 18 ends up at the Raiders as another stumbling block to reach the postseason.

Arizona +6 -105 over DALLAS

4:25 PM EST. If there is a team whose stock has dropped faster than the Cardinals the last month or so, we don’t know who it is. After a 10-2 start to 2021, the Red Birds have lost three straight games, who of which were in high profile prime time games, while the other was to the lowly Lions as 13-point chalk. This is not a way for one to gain favor in this market. Now, the Cards have a target on their back. They are in free fall. Kliff Kingsbury has had his Coach of the Years award ripped away, the same goes for Kyler Murray and that MVP trophy. The Cards are who we all thought they were. Or are they?

We admit it looks bleak, but losses to the Rams and Colts are forgivable. That ass-kicking in Detroit City? That one might be a little harder to stomach, but that it came sandwiched in between Monday Night Football and Christmas night football does make it a little easier to digest. Even with the run of lackluster results of late, these Red Birds still post double digit wins with two games to go. Is there a 10-win team with less fanfare in the market than Arizona? The Cardinals have clinched their spot in the playoffs, but there is still much to be decided when it comes to seeding. A West division crown is not in the Cardinals’ hands, but it is also not out of the question. Arizona needs the Rams to lose one of their last two games while the Cards must win out.

In a classic buy low, sell high situation, the Cowboys come into Week 17 at 11-4. They’re locked into the top spot in the NFC East and currently sit as the #2 seed. Sure, they can catch the Packers for #1, but Green Bay would have to lose to the Vikings without Kirk Cousins on Sunday night or drop one to the Lions in Week 18, which is not very likely. With that in mind, the ‘Boys are in a good spot to finish where they currently sit with tiebreakers over both the Rams and Buccaneers. The Cowboys may have turned some heads in a 56-14 waffling of the Football Team in front of the football world on Sunday night, but we’re not going to put too much stock into that 50 burger. WFT was in a “WTF?” spot after the league shuffled the deck chairs to get Week 15 in the books forcing Washington to suit up for a road game on a Tuesday night.

Aside from this situation for both sides, which suggests one is overvalued while the other is undervalued, this line suggests that the Red Birds should be live as hell here. This is a “pooch friendly” number. Cashing a ticket on the Cowboys to win by a converted touchdown is going to look really appealing. So will the Cowboys just win on a teaser or parlay. However, rarely is it that easy. There is extreme value on the Cardinals here and it should not be passed up. Recommendation: Arizona +6 -105

Carolina +6½ -105 over NEW ORLEANS

4:25 PM EST. We’ll keep this one short and sweet. The perception in the market here is that the Saints are getting healthy and have everything to play for here, while the Panthers are not and do not. However, we know that misery loves company, especially when it can be gained from a division foe.

After losing to Miami on Monday Night Football, the Saints are now up against it after having their playoff fate in their own hands. A win would not have solidified New Orleans’ spot, but it would have made it much more favorable. Now the Saints are looking up at the Falcons and Vikings, who are also on the outside looking in. Leapfrogging those sides or the Eagles and 49ers is a big ask. Hell, even if the Saints could convince Drew Brees to come back for one more run, they would still be in a tough spot. Those reports this week that New Orleans tried its best to get Brees back in the fold tells you all you need to know about what Sean Payton thinks about his current crop of quarterbacks and it’s not positive. ESPN’s FPI still has the Saints pegged at a 33% chance to get into the dance, but that does seem pretty high considering the fancy footwork they’d have to do around the teams that are ahead of them. Regardless, the perception they have everything to gain here is enough to force us to look at Carolina.

We do not like the Panthers. We do not trust Cam Newton. If we didn't know better, we too would likely be all over the Saints here, however, we know better. Carolina receiver Robby Anderson is saying all the right things this week and he is a good representation of what a lot of these guys are likely feeling on teams that are going nowhere, "We want the wins. If you learn from a loss, you grow from it. We're going through growing pains." The Panthers tried to give the Buccaneers a different look with both Newton and Sam Darnold under center, but Tompa Bay did not bite and smacked the Black Cats 32-6. It appears Newton’s second run in Charlotte is coming to an end with Darnold set to take back the reins here. Dude proved early he was well suited for the job going 3-0 to start his Panthers career. One of those victories was against these Saints, 26-7. What? Darnold can’t do it again? Recommendation: Carolina +6½ -105

Detroit +6½ -105 over SEATTLE

4:25 PM EST. Is this the final home game in Seattle for Russell Wilson? The struggling Seahawks have the look of a team about to undergo profound changes in the offseason and there's speculation that Pete Carroll's 12 seasons may have been one too many. Every aspect of the offense ranks below-average and Russell Wilson was already oddly inaccurate prior to his finger injury. The Seahawks' offense was designed to rely on one running back to carry the load, but they lost Chris Carson. When they pass, Wilson has always locked into his starting wide receivers but the connection just hasn't been as strong this year. This matchup is a chance to send the hometown fans off with a win. They've only witnessed two in Seattle this year.

The Seachickens were a -6½-point choice hosting the Bears last week. That suggests that on a neutral field, Detroit v Chicago would be a pick-em. That actually sounds about right but give us Detroit 100% of the time over the Bears at this point in time. You see, Detroit’s record is misleading while Chicago’s is not. The Lions are a 2-12 team that could just as easily be 10-4 and that’s no joke. Detroit was in a position to win eight games that they ended up losing. The beautiful part is that in this market, your identity is defined by your record and that my friends is what is providing us with this outstanding opportunity to take back a bunch of inflated points with the Lions. Incidentally, the Lions activated Jared Goff from the reserve/COVID-19 list and he'll take the reins back from Tim Boyle who did not prove to be ready for prime time.

This past week we all watched the tributes to John (Coach) Madden pour in from his peers to his former players and everyone in between. The one common denominator among all the players that played for him and who spoke about him was that they wanted to win and play hard for Coach. That’s what motivated them more than anything. We mention that here because the Lions players have relayed a similar message. They absolutely love Dan Campbell because he has their back 100% of the time and they will fight like hell for him. Coach had three rules. One, be on time. Two, listen, and three, play like hell on Sunday. The Lions have played like hell all year for Dan Campbell and with two games to go and generally good feeling in the locker room moving forward, expect them to play like hell again here and easily come in under the number.

Minnesota +13 -105 over GREEN BAY

8:15 PM EST. Is this Sunday Night Football or Dumb and Dumber 3? Or is it 4? No matter, you can color us totally surprised that Kirk Cousins unvaccinated behind would cost his team when it mattered most. The Vikings are 7-8 after losing to the Rams on Sunday, which dealt a pretty significant blow to Minnesota’s postseason prospects. The Vikings had a tough go as it was with the Packers and Bears on deck to finish the year before they lost Cousins and Adam Thielen (who will have surgery on his ankle), but now Minny is being written right off. Vikes coach Mike Zimmer’s daughter chimed in with this gem, “Is it too early to start drink, every Vikings fan waking up this morning”. That’s good shit, Corri. This quote from Sports Illustrated’s Will Ragatz sums it up, “Without Cousins, it'll take a miracle”. While their chances to not only win this game but play meaningful football in two weeks are slim, we doubt the Purple People Eaters will give up without a fight.

If we were to base a player’s value on line adjustments alone, we might as well give Kirk cousins the MVP. Dude is the G.O.A.T., apparently. Hell, when Dumb-Dumb sat out Week 9 at Kansas City, the Packers only gave back a few points with Jordan Love at the helm. Meanwhile, the Vikings went from +6½ points pooches (a dog friendly number) to +13 (also a dog friendly number). The Vikings will start Sean Mannion on SNF, so here is the low down. Dude was drafted in the third round pick in 2015, but he’s seen little action with just two starts. He’s made 13 appearances in six seasons, which makes him one of the more “unknown” backups in the league. However, more often than not, when a guy sticks around for 5+ years, there is usually a reason. We’re not saying Mannion is going to shock the world, but would it be that crazy if he did? The sexier pick would be rookie Kellen Mond, who we really like and have little doubt will be the starter sooner rather than later, but credit to coach Mike Zimmer for going with the vet in this spot.

Dumb-Dumb v Mannion is going to look like a slam dunk on Sunday night and maybe the Vikings get destroyed, but there is no way dude is worth a converted touchdown. The Vikings have a two headed monster in the backfield and it will need to be fed. #12 is already talking about retirement, or leaving Green Bay, or not, or whatever, and made himself the story (again) in a week where Ben Roethlisberger announced this season would be his last. “The Diva” couldn’t even let him have a day or two. There is a reason they say you can throw the records out when these two teams play. Division mates know each other inside and out. The Vikings are still a damn good team, even without Cousins. They can make the Packers’ path to the top seed more difficult than it needs to be even in defeat. We know the effort will be there, if the mistakes are not, bringing this one inside this ridiculous number will not be a problem. SKOL, VIKINGS! Recommendation +13 -105

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

A cheaper and better alternative to CABLE

TV Programming

A GREAT OFFER FOR SPORTSWAGERS READERS:

We’re offering a better and cheaper alternative to cable TV. You will literally save thousands of dollars. If you’re sick of paying a fortune for programming that you don’t even want or need, this is for you. All pro sports -- EVERY GAME, tons of college football and basketball games and tons of regular programming (non-sports). Over 2500 channels all in HD for a mere $20 per month. You have to be nuts not to get it.