NCAAF Free Picks for
Posted at 1:35 PM EST.
NORTHWESTERN +27 over Ohio State
Ryan Field – Evanston, IL
8:30 PM EST. There isn’t a trendier team in all of America at the moment than perhaps the Buckeyes of Ohio State. After collecting nine first-place votes in the AP Poll, some analysts have even argued that the present-undefeated Buckeyes would be the top team in the College Football Playoff if the poll were to be released this week as opposed to two weeks from Tuesday. In addition to making a name for itself through squashing the opposition week-in and week-out, the Buckeyes have also been a cover machine (much to our dismay when we faded them twice already this season) as they have taken backers to the window in five consecutive matches. Though there have been several spots where we anticipated the Buckeyes could run into trouble, the Ohio State University have overcome those circumstances seamlessly and quickly mitigated the doubt and risk through dominant play on both sides of the ball. However, we continue to assert that with each win and cover that Ohio State generates, the more the premium one is going to pay to back them.
Situationally, Ohio State’s visit to Evanston plays into this narrative. First off, Ohio State has covered in six of the last seven meetings between these two sides. A captivating (and useless) trend such as this will undoubtedly entice many to get aboard the red-hot Buckeyes, who enter in a “favorable” position to green up once again. Nevertheless, we dissent in that opinion, as that trend further renders the Buckeyes susceptible to spot even more of an inflated number but it doesn’t stop there.
Next week, Ohio State will be facing off in a huge showdown with a likely-undefeated Wisconsin squad in Madison, which will undoubtedly have B1G and College Football Playoff implications. Thus, the lookahead possibility in this spot is accelerated to say the least and we know how that can potentially play out as a result. Given the magnitude of this looming match-up for both Ohio State and Wisconsin, our fade of the Buckeyes will likely be the first of a two-prong play that also targets the Badgers this weekend as well.
The rematch of last year's Big Ten title game features the second largest home price Pat Fitzgerald has been offered in his head coaching career behind the 29½ his ‘Cats took from Michigan back in 2006, Fitz's first season as a head coach. True to what would become his "salty underdog" rep, Fitz covered easily in a 17-3 loss but that’s just fodder. The most significant truth is that NW is taking back inflated points in a favorable spot.
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NORTHWESTERN +27 -109 (Risking 2.18 units - To Win: 2.00)
NCAAF Historical - Totals
|Last 30 Days||17||17||0.00||+0.66|
|Season to Date||33||29||0.00||+11.06|