Pinnacle +16½ -105 BET365 +17 -110 SportsInteraction +17 -110 5DIMES +17 -110 Bookmaker +17 -113

Posted at 2:30 PM EST.

Skelly Field, H.A. Chapman Stadium in Tulsa, Oklahoma

East Carolina +17 -110 over TULSA

Streaming: On ESPN2 in the Sports Group. 

9:00 PM EST. The Golden Hurricane are 2-1 this year but they have covered in all three games to run their  Against the Spread (ATS) mark to 4-0 dating back to last year. It goes even deeper, as Tulsa has failed to cover the number just once in its last nine games. Not only has Tulsa covered in every game this season but it has obliterated the number by margins of 18, 15, 28½ and 16½ over its last four covers. In other words, anyone that bet against Tulsa anytime this year never had a chance to cash their ticket. We repeat, Tulsa has been destroying the number, which includes last year’s visit to East Carolina in which the Golden Hurricanes were favored by -7 and won 49-24. There are slight overreactions and there are massive ones and there is no question that the oddsmakers or market have over-compensated this week on Tulsa because they have been crushing the point-spread. 

East Carolina has been a perennial bottom feeder for years. The Pirates are once again losing frequently with just one win in four tries. That lone victory came against South Florida, which is among the worst teams in Division I college football. Once again, ECU’s stock is low, it’s always low but trust us when we suggest that the Pirates are more than capable of competing here. 

We could probably count on two fingers the amount of times Tulsa has been favored in this range against a division foe over the past two decades. Back in 2016, they were a 23-point favorite over Cincinnati and won in OT by three. We point this out because if we’re going to spot big time lumber, we want to do it with programs and coaches that are accustomed to being big favorites and have proven they can cover big numbers. Tulsa does not qualify. Tulsa is usually an underdog. They are usually a double-digit underdog. Other things to consider when spotting a big price: 

We want a team with an explosive offense that can score quickly, and also one that scores on defense and special teams. We'll often need the help of some cheap scores to get over a huge number, and we certainly don't want the clock grinding away until after we're on top of it.

Opponent profile. The weaker the opposing team, the better, of course, but beyond that generality, we want to fade teams that won't come back under the number once the favorite gets there. ECU fights. Be more wary of underdogs with backdoor firepower, those with a very slow pace of play or those who play hard for 60 minutes even when overmatched. ECU qualifies. We ran the teams through the checklist above to determine the underdogs suitability before we fire and boy oh boy, we’re ready to fire. Look, Tulsa has played three games this year and in one of those games, they were a 24-point underdog to Oklahoma State. They lost 16-7 but they go from a 24-point dog in one of its games this year to a 17-point fav, a difference of 41 points against a division rival. Win or lose, we’re going with the best of it in a big way here.   

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Pinnacle -1 -105 BET365 -1 -105 SportsInteraction -1 -110 5DIMES -1 -105 Bookmaker -1 -103

Posted at 2:30 PM EST.

WYOMING -1 -105 over Hawaii

War Memorial Stadium – Laramie, WY

Streaming: On FS1 in the Sports Group. 

9:45 PM EST. For the University of Hawaii, the logistics surrounding this spot is daunting to put it mildly. Last week, the Rainbow Warriors were taking back as much as six points before closing as a +2½-point pup when it took on the Fresno State Bulldogs on their own soil. To the delight of the market, the points weren’t needed as the Alohas won the game convincingly in a 34-19 victory over the Bulldogs after traveling across three time zones and 2,500 miles to do so. In their second week of action, Hawaii is now being asked to play on the road again after spending the entire week practicing in an indoor facility in Colorado.

We can appreciate the appeal of Hawaii, as they have seemingly picked up right where they left off last season when they finished with a 10-5 record and closed out their campaign with a bowl win over BYU. However, we would be remiss to highlight that Hawaii had an extended pre-season to prepare for their clash with Fresno State in “The Valley.” The dynamics surrounding this “back-to-back” are far more different. Hawaii comes into this contest off what would have to be considered a big win. There is a reason why the folks behind the number were reluctant to give Wyoming a field goal, as it is implicated that the Cowboys are primed to be a live dog. Then of course there are the elements themselves which further play into Wyoming’s hands. The forecast for this game is to see temperatures at or near freezing, which doesn’t fair potentially well for the guests who hail from a tropical climate. Nevertheless, the rising stock of Hawaii has caused the market to turn a blind eye. Furthermore, Fresno State kicked Colorado State’s ass last night, thus Hawaii’s win over Fresno last week suddenly looks even better. Unfortunately, that’s not how football math works. 

Unlike the Warriors, the Cowboys come into this game on a lower note, as they were defeated on the road last Saturday in Reno, Nevada at the hands of the Wolf Pack. The Ragtimes closed as a three-point favorite but it was Nevada who went on to win the contest 37-34 in overtime. However, if one thing can be derived from all of the aforementioned variables, it is that the Cowboys have all the ingredients necessary to win outright but they now also offer substantial equity as a result of the results. In college football, it is Week 9 but in the Mountain West Conference it is Week 2. The point being, these two have played one game each and the market is putting too much emphasis on just one week of results.

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