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NCAAF To Win Confernce
Eastern Michigan +800

BET365 +800

Posted on August 5

Eastern Michigan to win MAC +800

.353 is the number that represents the Eagles’ win-percentage in one-possession games dating back to 2017. Over the years, we have highlighted EMU’s spate of snake bites that have left with them with a won-loss record that is deceptive and does not appropriately convey the quality that Coach Chris Creighton has cultivated. In 2018, the MAC Championship was settled between the Buffalo Bulls and a perennial power of the conference, Northern Illinois. The Huskies went onto capture the MAC crown but they also crossed paths with Eagles earlier that year. Mirroring the trend of Eastern Michigan being on the wrong end of the equation, the Eagles fell to the Huskies 26-23 in overtime. A week before that Eastern Michigan fell on the road in overtime against Mountain West beast San Diego State. In fact, the two losses were bookended by a 35-28 defeat against Buffalo (the other MAC Championship Participant), and a 27-24 loss against Western Michigan to round off the skid. The question in Ypsilanti remains if Eastern Michigan had defeated Buffalo or San Diego State, how would’ve the trajectory of its season changed?

With a new year comes new hope. In the MAC, it is often the same three teams that are favored to win the conference hardware: Toledo, Ohio, and Northern Illinois. Once again, that trinity has emerged at the forefront but the Eagles perhaps can upset the apple cart. However, a schedule can be a big part of setting the course for a team’s success. For Eastern Michigan, they kick off their campaign at Coastal Carolina in what will be a winnable contest for the Eagles. They’re currently a 5½-point road favorite.

After that, the Eagles will play two road games against Power Five opposition in Kentucky and Illinois. Should EMU play either or both of those two teams close, it is certainly a good way to find their feet against premium opposition before embarking into conference play. However, this team did in fact upset Purdue (a team that blew out Ohio State) last year in its own stead, so nothing is truly ever out of question. The Eagles follow up with a tune-up game against FCS Central Connecticut State on September 21st before getting a bye week and opening MAC play against their rival Central Michigan who won just one game last year. After that, EMU hosts Ball State (who went 4-8 in 2018) and gets an opportunity to follow that up with avenging last year’s heartbreak against Western Michigan in the week thereafter. When it is all said and done, EMU could find itself 4-2 or maybe even 5-1 (if they stage an upset) before they enter the meat of MAC play.

A senior quarterback is always a good player to have to lead a team, especially one as electrifying as Mike Glass III. In the eight games he played last year, he ran for 412 yards with six touchdowns. He was 72/117 in the air for 1024 yards and nine touchdowns with only 1 pick. He seemed to provide a spark for the offense... when healthy. Let’s hope he stays upright. All in all, EMU’s defensive line and backs are fairly experienced, as are many of their players at the skill positions. They offensive line lost some players, which is a bit of a concern but it is also part of the reason why the price on the Eagles is so appealing. Finally, Emu will have to take on the role of the road Warrior this season, as they have just five home games but sometimes that leads to a greater camaraderie and an “us against the world” mentality. Now we get to take advantage of the value that presents itself should the bounces start to go in the Eagles’ direction. At the price offered, EMU is certainly worth a look and may even present a lot of hedge possibility if nothing else.  

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Our Pick

Eastern Michigan +800 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 16.00)

NCAAF Season Win TOTAL
Michigan under 9 +174

Pinnacle u9½ +174 BET365 u9½  SportsInteraction u9½ +130 5DIMES u9½ +170

Posted July 29.

Michigan under 9½ +174

There are several pundits that have painted the Wolverines as a College Football Playoff team in 2019 but we’ve heard all that jazz before. As value bettors, we look to find the equity in the numbers. From prima facie, the Wolverines schedule looks comprehensive enough to certainly produce three landmines that will allow us to cash this ticket.

First off, the Wolverines have two tough road games in two of the most hostile environments in all of college football when they sojourn to Wisconsin in late September and to Happy Valley against Penn State in mid-October. After all, the Maize and Blue ventured to both locales under Coach John Harbaugh in 2017 and were outscored by a combined margin of 43 points by both opponents. In 2018, Michigan kicked off its campaign on the road at rival Notre Dame with all of the same jargon and hyperbole that surrounded the program like we see this year, yet the Irish were the ones who emerged victorious and went onto the CFP. Notre Dame will be coming to Ann Arbor a week after the Penn State affair and even if Michigan were to come up with a big win against the Nittany Lions, the Irish may very well be in position to submarine them again in a quintessential letdown spot. Then there is also the narrative that should Michigan come into the Notre Dame game with two losses that their likely dashed CFP hopes may also cause them to come in flat and stub their toe yet again and we could very well be in the money in October. Should the Wolverines survive September and October, they play Michigan State in mid-November, which could turn out to be the Wolverines toughest opponent of the year. It’s also very noteworthy that Michigan at Maryland is sandwiched between Notre Dame and Michigan State and Michigan at indiana is sandwiched between Michigan State and Ohio State. Those are two vulnerable spots.

Last but most certainly not least, there is the proverbial road bump of Michigan’s arch nemesis Ohio State. The Buckeyes have had their old foes’ number as of late but many think that can finally change this year with Urban Meyer no longer at the reigns of the Scarlet and Grey. The fact that the rivalry festivities are being hosted at The Big House fuels that sentiment. However, football is an emotional game and there is very little doubt that the Buckeyes will enter The Big Game with the bigger mental edge which is just another obstacle for Michigan to overcome. The aforementioned obstacles will be even harder to tackle with the interior of Michigan’s defensive talent being off-loaded in the off-season. The Wolverines’ were one of the best in the country in 2018 in defending the pass (2nd overall) but their rush defense will be vulnerable, as they address the voids left by Linebacker Devin Bush, Jr. and defensive linemen Rashan Gary and Chase Winovich. A run-happy team like Army who Michigan plays in the second week of football could potentially pose a threat too. Every year Michigan is projected to break through and they never do. Every year, Harbaugh has his “best team” ever and every year they underachieve. Perhaps it’s time to recognize that Harbaugh is overrated and that he’s not as good as the media suggests he is.  Every year, Harbaugh gets out-coached in the biggest games. Every year, the Wolverines lose games they’re not suppose to and we see no reason why any of that is going to change this year. In fact, it might get worse because there is more pressure on Harbaugh to produce instead of making excuses. Under is the call.  

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Our Pick

Michigan under 9 +174 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 3.48)

NCAAF Season Win TOTAL
Texas A&M under 7 +120 over

Pinnacle  u7½ +114 BET365  u7½ +120 SportsInteraction u7½ +115 5DIMES u7½ +120 

Posted on July 25

Texas A&M under 7½ +120

We’re not sure where the Aggies are going to find eight wins. It actually seems extremely unreasonable to us to expect eight wins even if the Aggies were to be healthy the entire season. For one, their schedule is brutal and secondly, the SEC is stacked from top to bottom. Most power conferences have two or three very good teams with the second-tier teams being very average or below. Not the SEC. The SEC has seven great teams and one could even suggest that the conference is eight deep. The win total here is inflated because Jimbo Fisher is in his second year after winning eight times in his first year. Dude has pedigree coming out of his rear end. We now get to take big advantage of a mostly ill-informed market that is getting behind this program and Fisher one year too early.

Indeed Jimbo Fisher is a great recruiter. Thing is, his best recruits aren’t even playing yet. Fisher has had only two recruiting classes. Furthermore, have you seen the Aggies schedule? In the first four weeks, they have two easy games against Lamar and Texas State but they also play at Clemson in Week 2 and host Auburn in Week 4. The Aggies also play Alabama, Georgia, LSU, Ole Miss, Mississippi State, South Carolina and Arkansas. Arguably, the Aggies will play the three best teams in the country when they play Alabama, Clemson and Georgia. There are a couple of trap games in this exhausting schedule too. Surely, with a schedule like that and intensity so high, A&M will suffer some key injuries. Texas A&M has one starter on offense that’s a senior in a conference that is stacked and now they’re being asked to win eight of 12 games to beat us? Man, does this wager ever look good. Go under. 

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Our Pick

Texas A&M under 7 +120 (Risking 3 units - To Win: 3.60)

NCAAF Season Win TOTAL
Michigan State over 7 +105 over

Pinnacle  o7½ -150 BET365  o7½ +105 SportsInteraction o7½ +100 5DIMES o8 -115 

Posted on July 25

Michigan State over 7½ +105

First off, we rarely play overs because it is impossible for oddsmakers to anticipate which players will inevitably be injured but we’ll make an exception here. Michigan State returns 17 starters this year, which is the fourth most in the country. That matters. They also return the entire defensive line, which is another key point in the usually low scoring, defensive-minded Big-10 conference. MSU could easily get off to a 5-0 start with four of its first five games all being at home against Tulsa, Western Michigan, Arizona State, and finally Indiana in Week 5. In Week 4, the Spartans play at Northwestern. Incidentally, Arizona St. is a 25-1 shot to win the PAC-12 and Indiana and Northwestern’s season win totals are both 6½ with 40 cents juice on the under. There is a great chance that Michigan State opens 5-0 but we’ll gladly take 4-1 too. 

Last season, MSU’s defense ranked #1 in the country against the run. With that aforementioned defensive line intact, it would be reasonable to suggest they’ll be just as good or even better. On offense, the Spartans return the entire offensive line too. An elite defense and the return of a healthy, capable quarterback in Brian Lewerke will stack Michigan State with the goods to give any team trouble. A revamped offensive approach under new offensive coordinator Brad Salem, that will feature a more modern one-back up tempo style will make MSU a tough team to prepare for. Not only can the Spartans go over this number but they could actually finish with the Big-10’s best record. Mark Dantonio had notched double-digit win totals in four of the previous five seasons, but a massive rash of injuries ended hopes of doing it again last year. Injuries caused 10 offensive starters to miss 48 games last year, resulting in the Spartans ranking No. 117 in the nation in total offense and they still won seven games. Asking them to win one more is not a stretch, it’s a gift.

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Our Pick

Michigan State over 7 +105 (Risking 3 units - To Win: 3.15)

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