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Posted at 10:30 AM EST

UCF -7½ over GEORGIA TECH

Streaming Subscribers: On several ABC stations in Local Channels Group

Bobby Dodd Stadium -Atlanta, GA

3:30 PM EST. The Georgia Institute of Technology staged an outright upset of Florida State in Tallahassee last Saturday when they defeated the Seminoles 16-13 despite closing as a 13-point underdog. The defeat of the ‘Noles for a team as maligned as the Yellow Jackets have stirred a whole bunch of commotion, as it was one of Week 2’s most impressionable results. To add to last week’s resonating win over FSU, the books have hung a hook on the Yellow Jackets, thus giving them more appeal. Big red flag, my friends.

The 7½-point spot is enticing because it cultivates the guise of an easy cover for the dog should it lose by a converted touchdown. However, in many instances, the converted touchdown never ends up becoming a bargaining chip because the pooch usually isn’t even in striking distance. Last Sunday’s meeting between Baltimore and Cleveland serves as an apt demonstration of how potent -7½-point favorites can be, as they absolutely sandbagged the Brownies. That is just one example of many. There is a strong possibility that a similar scenario awaits the Jackets.

UCF is a step up in class for Georgia Tech not a step-down and we really don’t care about Florida State’s reputation or the fact that they reside in the ACC. Central Florida arguably is the best team in the state of Florida at the present moment and their credentials speak for itself. The 2019-20 campaign served as a correction year for UCF, as they covered just three times in their last 10 outings.

Though UCF is a small school, it is nonetheless fierce. It is essentially the Seabiscuit of College Football. This is a program with a culture of winning, a team that has won a BCS Bowl, New Year’s Six Bowl, being declared a National Champion in an alternative poll, and had a winning-streak that extended into a third-season though it only plays in the lowly American Athletic Conference. Last year was an “off year” for Josh Heupel and company and still the Knights won 10 games. We can assure you that Georgia Tech defeating Florida State last week did not help its cause. If anything it hindered it, as it will prompt Central Florida to pay even more attention to this underdog. After just three covers in its last 10 games combined with GT’s win over FSU last week, this is now the perfect time to get on board with the Knights before their stock soars again. Remember, GT was a 13-point dog last week and that outright win activates some strong recency bias. We’re now the beneficiaries of a deflated number. Step in.

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Posted at 5:00 PM EST

Louisville +2 -110 over Miami

Cardinal Stadium – Louisville, KY

Streaming subscribers: ABC in the Local Channels Network

7:30 PM EST. This is strictly a buy-back on Louisville after Miami went from a 2-pt underdog to a 2 point fav over the past few hours. We are therefore coming back with a wager on Louisville to essentially get out of our wager.

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Posted at 10:30 AM EST

GEORGIA STATE +17 over UL Lafayette

Center Parc Stadium – Atlanta, GA

Streaming Subscribers: On ESPN2 in the Sports Group

12:00 PM EST. Situational betting is a practice we believe in. This spot has all the makings of a great situational spot as well as a great value play. First, let us begin with the selling point of the Ragin’ Cajuns, after their historic and quite frankly dominant win against Iowa State in Ames last Saturday when ULL came to a town as a 13½-point pup and went on to grab an emphatic 31-14 victory against the Cyclones. It was a shocker to be sure but more importantly, it alerts the marketplace, it puts the Ragin’ Cajuns on the map and it also subjects them to spotting an inflated number but it doesn’t stop there.

Such an important win for the Lafayette program will likely trigger a letdown against a team that they have never lost to. In the tale of the tape between GSU and ULL, the Ragin’ Cajuns have won all four meetings between both parties and so there has to be a sense of complacency for the visitor. We have to wonder what this price would be had ULL lost by 14 to Iowa State as they were projected to. As a result of one game in the middle of a pandemic, we get the underdog at a greatly inflated price. 

Last week, ULL was the hunter and Iowa State was the hunted in the age-old Group of Five versus Power Five dynamic. However, now the roles have reversed. Ask anyone in the Sun Belt Conference about Louisiana-Lafayette and they will tell you that they are one of the perennial powers in the league. For a team like Georgia State, a win over such a program would be classed as a milestone. Given the letdown susceptibility of UL Lafayette to come in flat from all the revelry of last week’s hallmark win, there is no reason to suspect that Georgia State cannot compete hard for 60 minutes here and come in well under the number.

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Posted at 10:30 AM EST

Miami +107 ML over Louisville 

Cardinal Stadium – Louisville, KY

Streaming subscribers: ABC in the Networks section

7:30 PM EST. One can read a million different write-ups about this prime-time showdown of ranked ACC foes, and each one will break down the X’s and O’s and try to pick a winner. That’s not our approach, never has been and never will be because nobody in the history of sports betting has been able to predict games that way and we’re not going to try and be the first.

Our goal is to try and find where the value lies and in that regard, we’re going to trust that it lies with “The U”. For one, a litany of useless trends have been adopted as rationale to back Louisville, which include the ‘Canes being 3-23 straight up (SU) away from home against ranked teams since 2005. Using something like that to form an opinion is absurd. How can a game from 10 years ago affect the outcome of today’s game yet the market buys this crap up like it’s fresh produce.

There is also mention of Miami being 8-14 SU in their past 22 games against Power Five opposition. While these narratives would inspire the market to get behind Louisville, it is Miami who actually bodes the upside here, as all this completely useless information/trends only enhance the value of the Hurricanes, not diminish them.

Then there is the “revenge angle”, which is another selling point in the market. According to the pick sellers, Louisville will absolutely be looking to atone for last year’s grisly 25-point loss in Miami. Referencing such material in many instances is very much like citing the irrelevant trends we have also outlined, as it can persuade the market to bet a team at a bad number based on speculation. Moreover, the revenge angle is no reason to back a side as that has been a constant culprit of ripped tickets. Why? Because the team that is prone to said vindication isn’t going to just let the avenger deliver the comeuppance because the market thinks they will.

The underdog-friendly number presented here would also suggest that Miami is the prudent play. The -2½ number is a notorious hook to lay the points, as it creates the illusion of an easy cover should UL win by a field goal. If you want to read about the changes in offense, defense, special teams, big games, QB’s coordinators and everything else, we can point you to a million places that all say the same thing with a few variances. We assure you that Miami is greatly improved with a stud offensive coordinator behind them and now we get them at a great price because of meaningless past records. Buy low before the market realizes that the “U” is back.

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