Detroit @ Philadelphia
Detroit +117 over Philadelphia

Posted at 11:00 AM EST. Odds subject to change.

Pinnacle +117 BET365 +110 Sportsinteraction +109 888Sport +110

Detroit +117 over Philadelphia

1:07 PM EST. OT included. The Red Wings have just three wins over their last 10 games, two wins over their last six, and one win in their last five. While the results are not up to par, the Wings have outshot their opposition in four of their last five games, including two straight against the Blues. Detroit would only get the split in those two games, losing on Thursday night at home to St. Louis, 4-3.

Neither one of these two teams is going anywhere after the season ends in mid-April, but Flyers coach John Tortorella still has an aura about him that he will not accept anything less than full effort and that he gets the best out of his players no matter what. Well, somebody forgot to tell the Blue Jackets that after "Torts'" message wore thin in Columbus. Today's players might respond to a sociopath like Tortorella in the short term (repeat MIGHT), but long term, the old coach's style is not going to cut it. Perhaps Tortorella is somewhat guilty of spreading this narrative after he called on Flyers fans to stop calling on him to "tank it," calling that proposition "asinine."

This play is simple as we look to take advantage of a market inefficiency based on recency bias. On the Flyers' side, Philadelphia has won three out of four games, including two straight. Both of those wins came over potential playoff contenders in Florida and Minnesota, but before one gets too excited about those victories, we must point out that the Panthers outshot the Flyers badly (44-24), while the win over the Wild came in the shootout. Had a bounce or two gone the other way, we'd be discussing a Flyers' team with two wins in their last 13 games and not two wins in a row. Recent results loom large here, thus, we're going to attempt to capitalize by taking back a price on the superior team that should be favored.

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Our Pick

Detroit +117 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.34)

Buffalo @ N.Y. Islanders
Buffalo +155 over N.Y. Islanders

Posted at 11:00 AM EST. Odds subject to change.

Pinnacle +150 BET365 +155 Sportsinteraction +141 888Sport +145

Buffalo +155 over N.Y. Islanders

5:07 PM EST. OT included. The Sabres had a good look at the playoffs this season, but alas, it is not likely to be, as Buffalo is now six points back of Pittsburgh for the second Wild Card (WC) and nine points back of the Islanders for the first Wild Card with 11 games to play. All that to say, "It's over, Johnny."

With the pressure off, Buffalo can look forward to an early golf season, head to the cottage, get their hockey summer camps fired up, or whatever these guys do after they clean out their lockers. In the meantime, the Sabres can be a thorn in the side of every potential playoff team they play the rest of the way, just as they were last night when they knocked off New Jersey.

Enter the Islanders, who are holding down the first Wild Card spot. New York is three points up on Pittsburgh (WC2) and three points up on Florida. The rest of the Metro Division is out of sight, with the third-place Rangers 13 points ahead with nine games to go. Technically, it's a four-team race for two Wild Card spots when we include Washington, who are four points back of the Penguins.

The storyline here is that this is a "must-win" for the Islanders while the Sabres are just playing out the string. The market and the media eat that low-hanging fruit up. We don't see it that way at all. Misery loves company, and the Sabres can make life miserable for the Isles, at least in the short term, much like the Blue Jackets did in a 5-4 overtime win over the Isles last night. That game for NYI was a one-off in Columbus, which came after a wild 7-2 win over the Maple Leafs on Tuesday night. Now, New York returns home to face the Sabres with the Devils and Capitals on deck, whom they are fighting it out with for one of those Wild Card spots. Many of our boxes are checked here, and the price is inflated. That's a wager, friends.

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Our Pick

Buffalo +155 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 3.10)

Montreal vs Columbus
Montreal -½ +115 over Columbus

Posted at 11:00 AM EST. Odds subject to change.

Pinnacle -½ +107 BET365 -½ +115 Sportsinteraction -½ +110 888Sport -½ +110

Montreal -½ +115 over Columbus

7:07 PM EST. Regulation only. We’re rarely in favor of spotting pucks with weak teams but there are always exceptions when it comes to sports betting and this is one of those rare times. This is a strong situational play on the Canadiens that we’re not going to miss.

As the NHL hits the stretch run with just 10 or less games left for all 32 teams, motivation or lack thereof is always worth considering this time of year. For Montreal, motivation is never an issue when playing at home because hockey is more than a sport in that region. It matters not if the Habs are in first, last or somewhere in between because the entire city deeply cares about every game. Hockey is a way of life in Montreal, a religion, if you will. Every game matters and every player is acutely aware of the interest. Walk into the Playground Casino in Montreal and every screen will have the Habs game on and nobody cares about anything else. The media and fans will treat this meaningless game like it’s a playoff game because every game matters in Montreal and it is for that reason that we’re not concerned about a lack of motivation for the Habs, as they want to win and they want to win badly.

Montreal has just two wins in their last 10 games but they played (in order) Vegas, Carolina, the Rangers, New Jersey, Colorado, Pittsburgh, Florida, Tampa (twice) and finally Boston. You will not find a team in the NHL with a tougher 10-game stretch that Montreal just played. After playing that group, this one should appear in slow motion for a desperately hungry Habs’ squad.

As for Columbus, well, they played last night at home v the Islanders and won 5-4 in OT. They were chasing the puck for the entire third period, blew a two goal lead and buried the winner on a PP goal. It was an exhilarating win for a team in the role of the spoiler. There is no role of the spoiler here and the Jackets will play this one without their second leading scorer Patrik Laine.

Additionally, Columbus has not played consecutive home games in a month. What that means is that this is the 13th straight game that the Jackets have had to travel to play its next game. They’ve also allowed four goals or more (usually more) in 10 straight games, which means it takes five goals for them to win a hockey game and that’s a big ask for them in this very difficult scheduling spot. After back-to-back exhilarating OT wins against Washington and the Isles, two teams fighting for their playoff lives, the Jackets will go back-to-back here in a meaningless game with the Rangers and Bruins on deck. Montreal could not have handpicked a more ripe-to-get-beat opponent.

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Our Pick

Montreal -½ +115 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.30)

RangeWLP+/- (Units)
Yesterday000.000.00
Last 30 Days16210.00+0.88
Season to Date761140.00-21.44