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CINCINNATI -1 vs Pittsburgh
CINCINNATI -1 +175 over Pittsburgh

BEST LINES:  Pinnacle -1½ +175 BET365 -1½ +170 SportsInteraction +-1½ +165 5DIMES -1½ +172

Posted at 9:45 AM EST.

1:10 PM EST. One could spot a small price with the Reds today and still be getting a bargain but we like going for the gusto because the payout is so much better.

Ivan Nova makes his 19th start of the season for the Pirates and brings a 4.38 ERA after 102 innings into this one. Nova’s entire career has been a tale of two different pitchers results-wise. He’s been very good for stretches and/or absolutely horrible for other stretches but this is not a starter to get behind in small parks like Cincinnati’s Great American (you may recall Nova getting crushed constantly at Yankee Stadium too). In fact, Nova is 0-4 at Great American over the past three seasons with a 6.64 ERA and .356 oppBA. He’s allowed 31 hits and 18 runs in 20 frames over four starts at this park over the past three years. A bout with knee inflammation never landed him on the DL but his results seem to indicate lingering issues. There are some bankable skills here - pinpoint control and a slight groundball lean but dude is getting far too much credit here.

Matt Harvey (RHP) has been surprisingly good of late, posting a 1.86 ERA, a 1.07 WHIP and a 23:5 K:BB ratio across his past five starts. Additionally, he logged pure quality starts in four of those five starts. While it is too early to assert that the right-hander is now a reliable starter, he has pitched well enough of late to get the nod against a Pirates lineup that has been below average against righties and that is sending out a scared pitcher today. Bank on the Reds going off.

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Our Pick

CINCINNATI -1 +175 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 3.50)

Atlanta @ WASHINGTON
Atlanta +191 over WASHINGTON

BEST LINES:  Pinnacle +191 BET365 +180 SportsInteraction +180 5DIMES +185

Posted at 9:45 AM EST.

1:35 PM EST. Yesterday’s game was rained out so we figured the same starters would be going today but that’s not the case, at least for now but we’re thrilled to get the Braves again at an even better price. You see, the Nationals have been on our fade list for the better part of the past month and nothing has occurred to change our position on them. The Nats still lack drive and more often than not, they’re just going through the motions. Despite that lack of desire and just about everything else, they’re priced almost daily like a contender, which continue to provide us with opportunities like this one.

Max Scherzer (RHP) needs no introductions, as we all know exactly who he is and what he brings. He has been as successful as any starter this year (2.41 ERA, 0.90 WHIP, 12.2 K/9 rate), but what you may not know is that he last logged a pure quality start on June 5. To put that drought in perspective, Sale has tallied a pure quality starts on five occasions since Scherzer last accomplished the feat. Scherzer is obviously still a stud and can pitch a gem at any time but he is not the top option here due to recent performances and a fairly taxing matchup against a quality Braves lineup. Atlanta wants to win and they want to win badly while the Nationals are going to be blown up at the end of this year.

That Mike Foltynewicz (RHP) is taking back a tag like this is nuts. It might be another decade before you get a price like this again on Folty. Mike Foltynewicz posted a 1.13 ERA and 0.75 WHIP over four starts in June and his overall ERA/xERA is now 2.66/3.26 with 120 K’s in 102 innings. While he’s been helped by an unsustainable 81% strand rate, we can't dismiss the skills he put up: 10.9 K’s/9, 58% groundballs and of course the aforementioned xERA. His 12.2% swing and miss rate and 67% first-pitch strike rate since the beginning of June are both top three marks. Dude is priced like he’s Andrew Cashner here for f**ks sake and if we lose this game, we’ll still be proud to rip up this ticket.

Please note: We have leans posted daily on Twitter and you can follow us there for leans, possible late plays or any other info we might have to pass along. 

Open an account today at  and take advantage of their -104 style pricing on sides and totals, which is 60% better than other sportsbooks.

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Our Pick

Atlanta +191 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 3.82)

Chicago @ SEATTLE
Chicago +187 over SEATTLE

BEST LINES:  Pinnacle +187 BET365 +180 SportsInteraction +185 5DIMES +185

Posted at 9:45 AM EST.

4:10 PM EST. Reynaldo Lopez (RHP) is 4-7 with a 3.91/4.76 ERA/xERA split. While Lopez owns a below-average swing and miss rate of 9%, his newly-added slider (13% swing and miss) is creating whiffs. Missing bats with a cutter (12%) and a change-up (11%) provide a solid floor for keeping hitters off balance.  He should earn a few more strikeouts, Even though Lopez's addition of a slider has been successful (.509 oOPS) in 2018, his skills don't buy his ERA, which has been buoyed by a favorable hit%/strand% swing.

Marco Gonzales (LHP) is 10-5 with a 3.41 ERA after 19 starts covering 113 innings. However, he only throws 90 MPH and has an average swing and miss rate of 10%. Gonzales went 1-1- with a 6.08 ERA in 40 innings last year for St. Louis and Seattle combined. This former first-round pick gained some velocity after return from 2016 TJS, but fringe strikeout rate and xERA illustrated the bumpy ride ahead. Gonzales has been very good this year, especially his control, where he’s walked just 22 batters all year. He could perform well here and that wouldn’t surprise anyone. In fact, he’s expected to do well here.

We’re just giving you the skinny on Lopez and Gonzales but in no way is this a wager based on the starters. This wager is all about fading the imposter Mariners that we’re suggesting should bring back some nice profits the rest of the way.

Only the Yankees, Red Sox and Astros have a better record than the Mariners. There is not a single team in the NL with a higher winning percentage than Seattle and in this world we live in, winning is everything. The market views the Mariners as one of the best teams in baseball because of their great record. That works in our favor because that misleading record will provide us with great prices for a while until the Mariners inevitably come crashing down to Earth.

You see, Boston’s run differential is +163. New York’s is +130. Houston’s run differential is +197. Those are the top three teams in the league. Seattle has teh fourth best record in the league and its run differential is -5. That’s right, the Mariners have scored less runs than they’ve allowed, which does not correlate to a winning record. For instance, the Pirates run differential is -10, which is the closest to the Mariners -5 and the Pirates are one game over .500 at 50-49. The Cardinals run differential is +19 and the Cards are a mere two games over .500. The Angels run differential is +15 and they’re two games under .500. The Rays run differential is +18 and they’re a .500 ball club. One could go through the history books and never find a team with a run differential of -5 or thereabouts and be 20 games over .500 after 100 games. The conclusion is that the Mariners have been EXTREMELY lucky and with a starting staff that is among the worst in MLB, regression to that misleading record is almost guaranteed. The Seattle Mariners are no better than the Pirates, Rays or Blue Jays but they’re priced like they’re as good as the Yanks, Red Sox and Astros.

Please note: We have leans posted daily on Twitter and you can follow us there for leans, possible late plays or any other info we might have to pass along. 

Open an account today at  and take advantage of their -104 style pricing on sides and totals, which is 60% better than other sportsbooks.

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Our Pick

Chicago +187 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 3.74)

RangeWLP+/- (Units)
Yesterday100.00+2.74
Last 30 Days38390.00+36.26
Season to Date1451830.00+54.16
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