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Posted at 12:00 PM EST. 

Baltimore -1½ +170 over DETROIT

1:10 PM EST. It appears as though Pinnacle Sports is no longer offering Alternative Run lines in MLB. Whether that is permanent or temporary remains to be seen, as it has only been three days since they have been off the board at Pinny so we’re adding BetOnline to our lists of outs. BetOnline offers Alternative Run Lines, live betting on every game, fair vig or odds and everything else we look for in a book. They also accept US players and if you are so inclined, you can deposit and withdraw using Bitcoin.

It sure looks to us that this is going to be a high scoring game, as two garbage starters square off to begin and then two shaky bullpens will try and wiggle in and out of some jams. In what has to be considered a 50/50 proposition for one of these teams to blow out the other, we’ll side with the Orioles simply because the price is too sweet not to.

First up is Spenser Watkins (RHP - BAL). Set to retire and start work as a high-school baseball coach, the Orioles signed him this past off-season, culminating in his unexpected call-up. There's a low-90s fastball, low-80s slider, as well as mid-80s change. 6'2" and 185 pounds, Watkins comes with a high three-quarter delivery and the surface stats say he's been effective for Triple-A Norfolk, but his component skills remain lackluster (11.3% swing & miss, 47.9% fly-balls). Dude has made five appearances, four as a starter and a 81% strand rate say7s he’s been lucky. Watkins won’t be around for long. He’ll most likely end up as just a good story that provided the O’s some organizational depth when they needed it. He comes in with a misleading 3.10 ERA and a skills supported 5.64 xERA. We are crossing our fingers and hoping he can limit the damage.

Speaking of damage, say hello to Tyler Alexander (LHP - DET). This southpaw remains somewhat deadly against same-sided brethren, and that growing K rate will put him on some radars but we’re not buying any of it. His xBB% makes rising BB% even more ominous, RH bats mash him, which bodes very well here because the Orioles are loaded on the right side. Baltimore might not even have one left-handed bat in the lineup today. Alexander’s xERA the past three games is 6.97 with a swing & miss rate of 5.8%, thus we certainly like the Orioles chances of putting up something crooked more than Detroit’s chances.

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Posted at 1:30 PM EST. 

Cincinnati -1½ +230 over N.Y. METS

1:10 PM EST. In the spirit of sticking with it, we are going to come right back on the Reds today after they blew a 4-1 lead last night. Vladimir Gutierrez (RHP - CIN) will get the call, although this play has little to do with him.

The Mets comeback was spearheaded by the newly acquired Javier Baez, who hit a two run shot in his new digs. Marcus Stroman (RHP - NYM) will make his second start of the week after he was on the hook for the loss in Monday's double header, where he gave up two runs across five innings against the Braves. On paper, Stroman might look like a solid option today, but a closer look under the hood shows that he's living a bit of a charmed life, which makes spotting an inflated price like this a risky game. Dude's xERA is 4.40, much higher than his surface number (2.62). Stroman's giving up more hard hit ball now more than ever (42.3%) and an average swing and miss rate (11.6%) make the premium you are going to pay to back him today just too high. Overlay.

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Posted at 12:00 PM EST. 

Colorado -1½ +200 over SAN DIEGO

4:10 PM EST. Austin Gomber’s (LHP - COL) 3.68/3.81 ERA/xERA split through 90 innings is completely legit. xERA does not take park factors into consideration but we do, as it is most certainly a factor. If Austin Gomber had pitched half his games anywhere beside Coors, one has to wonder what his xERA would be. It’s elite at Coors and now he’ll pitch at one of the most pitcher friendly parks in all of baseball. No questions that Gomber has been the Rockies most reliable starter. The Rocks have won five of his last six starts. Gomber was the winning pitcher in Colorado’s 12-3 win at the Angels last week in L.A. The start before that he was again effective, tossing 6 innings of 3-run ball in a Coors Field win over Seattle. His groundball rate the past two starts is 55%. No matter how you break it down, Gomber’s skills are truly legit.

On or around July 9th, the Padres promoted Reiss Knehr (RHP - SD) from Double-A after placing Blake Snell on the injured list. Knehr made his major league debut with a spot start on July 9, against Colorado and went 3.2 innings in a 4-2 San Diego win. In those 3.2 frames, Knehr walked four batters, gave up two hits and also surrendered two runs. His xERA that game was 8.93. In five frames overall, Knehr has walked six batters with a 20% groundball rate. His command will ultimately determine his future role. Knehr’s strikeout rate has fallen from 11.3 K/9 in 2019 (High-A) to 7.9 in 2021. For his minor league career, he has a 4.43 ERA, 3.7 BB/9 and 10.0 K/9. Again, that was at Double-A ball so he skipped Triple-A altogether.

It’s not always about starters but this opportunity to get behind the superior starter while fading a Double-A starter at this price is one we must try and take advantage of.

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A GREAT OFFER FOR SPORTSWAGERS READERS:

We’re offering a better and cheaper alternative to cable TV. You will literally save thousands of dollars. If you’re sick of paying a fortune for programming that you don’t even want or need, this is for you. All pro sports -- EVERY GAME, tons of college football and basketball games and tons of regular programming (non-sports). Over 2500 channels all in HD for a mere $20 per month. You have to be nuts not to get it.

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