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Posted at 3:00 PM EST. Odds subject to change.

ALDS Game 2

Kansas City over N.Y. Yankees

7:38 PM EST. It’s a battle between southpaws at Yankee Stadium. Still just 26, last year’s deadline acquisition, Cole Ragans (LHP - KC) made the All-Star team and set career highs in pretty mucheverything good, finishing second in the league in strikeout percentage and xERA, sixth in RA9, eighth in ERA, and ninth in Deserved Runs Allowed (DRA) among qualifiers. Rodón, 31, had numbers that were less gaudy but the season represented a nice bounceback from 2023, when, in the first year of a six-year, $162 million deal (Ragans was paid $753,750 this year), he posted a 6.85 ERA over 14 starts in an injury-marred campaign. This time he led the Yankees in starts, innings, wins, and strikeouts.

Kansas City struggled against lefties this year, with a 16-21 record that was better than only the Angels, Red Sox, Blue Jays, and White Sox in the American League. But the Yankees were no great shakes against lefties either, at 21-23, and Ragans (3.14 ERA, 2.92 xERA, 3.77 DRA, 3.9 WARP) was objectively better than Rodón (3.91 ERA, 4.17 xERA, 4.76 DRA, 1.7 WARP). After a bumpy August (3.82 ERA), Ragans righted the ship in September (1.08 ERA) and shut out the Orioles over six innings in the Wild Card opener. Like Ragans, Rodón was shaky in August (4.15 ERA), but went on to be the Yankees’ best non-Cole pitcher in September (2.20 ERA). Rodón allowed four runs (three earned) over 13 innings in two starts against the Royals this season, and Ragans pitched well in a September start in the Bronx, allowing two runs over six innings in a game the Yankees won in 11 innings.

Ragans has a five-pitch arsenal (four-seam, changeup, slider, curve, cutter) that he’ll use against both left- and right-handed batters. By StuffPro and PitchPro, all but the cutter are above-average pitches, especially the slider, his putaway pitch when ahead of the count against lefties. Rodón has the same pitches but relies primarily on his fastball and slider, mixing in the curve and change against righties. He prefers his slider when ahead against all batters, leaning on the fastball when behind.

Among 126 pitchers with at least 100 innings pitched, Rodón’s 35% fly-ball rate is the highest and his 18% HR/FB rate 25th. As a result, he gave up 31 homers, tied for the second-most in MLB. The Royals don’t exactly have a Soto-Judge-Stanton kind of lineup, but 15 of Rodón’s homers came at Yankee Stadium, so if his command’s off, the Royals could capitalize. Both of Saturday’s homers, hit to the short porch in right by Gleyber Torres and MJ Melendez, would have been home runs in none of the other 29 MLB ballparks. These are both good pitchers but Ragans has an edge.

Raise your hand if you thought that the key defensive play of the first game of the series would be a Juan Soto baserunner kill on an exceptionally ill-advised send of Salvador Perez (ranked 547 out of 566 MLB players for sprint speed) on an attempt to score from second on a Melendez single in the second inning. Granted, Soto’s arm is decent, but he’s not there for his glove. Point is, the Royals could’ve easily won Game 1 and can surely bounce back in Game 2.

One expert described the Royals offense as “Bobby Witt Jr. surrounded by a waiver wire.” That’s a little harsh—not a lot harsh—with only Salvador Perez, late-season pickup Pham, and Vinnie Pasquantino, back from a broken thumb but unable to play in the field or, to date, get an extra-base hit, joining Witt with a DRC+ over 100.

On Saturday Judge and Stanton batted ten times, with a total of 14 runners on base during their plate appearances. They were 0-for-8 with five strikeouts, two walks, and no RBI. They had a combined Championship Win Probability Added of -1.94%.

Much has been made of the history between these two clubs. None of the players on either team were alive the last time the teams met in the playoffs, when George Brett hit his ALCS-clinching three-run homer off Rich Gossage (in relief of the actual Tommy John) on October 10, 1980. There’s no George Brett or Goose Gossage in this series but just like then, when few gave the Royals a shot, we’ll play the value like we always do

Sherwood

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Arizona     -150

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