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Posted at 2:40 PM EST. 

7:10 PM EST. Matthew Boyd (LHP - DET) has missed more bats in the early-going than any other starter in the AL (20.2% swing & miss rate), helping to validate some of the breakout upside we saw from him heading into 2019. His overall skills have been electric due to a 36/7 K/BB in 24 innings and his 2.96 ERA would be even better if not for an unlucky 38% hit rate. He's getting two times as many whiffs on his four-seam fastball and slider than he did in 2018. Boyd is a legit ace taking back a price like he’s Bartolo Colon.

Chris Sale's dominance is well understood, boasting a 300 strikeout season in 2017, and sporting video game numbers in 27 starts last year in the form of a 2.11 ERA, 0.86 WHIP, and 237 strikeouts across just 158 innings. All three of his pitches - four-seamer, slider, and changeup - returned swinging-strike rates north of 15% and induced batters to chase his pitches remarkably close to a 40% clip, which led to a ridiculous .179 BAA for those forced to face him. But here’s the biggest question: how much of Chris Sale will one get? Sale battled diminished velocity down the stretch, as the Red Sox wisely eased him back into the rotation, preparing for their World Series run. This year he has posted a 8.50 ERA with that same diminished velocity and while he’s better than that, his xERA is still 4.92. Chris Sale looks hittable and less durable and while we never encourage anyone to sell low, his market credibility combined with the team he plays for means we’re not selling low after all. This is an overlay that hopefully pays off.  

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Posted at 2:40 PM EST

7:10 PM EST. One could definitely spot -111 to -115 with the Mets, as there is value in underpriced favorites too but we’ll go by the way of the run-line and hope that Jake Arrieta’s (RHP- PHI) weak skills finally catch up to him. Weak skills might actually be understating it. If reliability to show up every fifth day was a skill, perhaps we’d have a different position but but it’s not. Unsavory trends in xERA, strikeout rates, command and swing and miss rate cannot and should not be ignored. Arrieta’s 2.25 ERA after four starts covering 28 innings is all smoke and mirrors that will inevitably blow up. The proof:

18 K’s in 28 innings with a 7% swing and miss rate.

12 walks in 28 innings.

A fortunate .213 BABIP

A fortunate 86% strand rate

Finally, Jake Arrieta has somehow been able to walk into a thunderstorm without getting wet but his xERA of 5.07 is one one of the worst xERA’s in the league among all qualified starters and his luck will 100% guaranteed run out. Let’s hope that it begins right here.   

We could tell you all about Steven Matz (LHP - NYM) but it’s not necessary, as Matz just happens to be the starter today that is going up against our fade target.

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Posted at 2:40 PM EST

8:40 PM EST. The “Coors Field” angle is back in play for this one, as we have two very hittable pitchers going but Washington’s offense is superior to Colorado’s. In the year of what looks to be the “juiced baseball” Colorado is near the bottom of the league in HR’s while Washington is top-10.

As for the starters, Tyler Anderson (LHP - COL) comes off the 10-day injured (left knee inflammation) after two right starts to begin the year in which he walked three, struck out five, gave up two jacks among the 18 hits he allowed and was also tagged for 12 runs, all over just nine innings. We can overlook a home start against the Dodgers but dude was also destroyed in Miami against the Marlins. Maybe it was the knee inflammation that caused those two blow-ups but regardless, Anderson’s underlying numbers last year aren't reassuring.

Jeremy Hellickson (RHP - WAS) was fortunate to post such a low ERA last season and can't reasonably be expected to duplicate the feat in 2019. He punches out very few batters on a per inning basis, and doesn't work very deep into games, as he averaged under five innings per start in 2018, and lasted six innings just twice. In 14 innings over three appearances this year (two starts), he’s walked eight and struck out six. Yuck. However, he has a five-pitch mix and an elite ground-ball rate so there’s that. We understand that Hellickson is going to get blown up many times this year and when he’s favored, he’ll be a good fade target but that does not apply here. We’re simply playing the dog here in a game where runs figure to be aplenty.

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Posted at 2:40 PM EST. 

10:07 PM EST. Texas is 12-8 while the A’s are 11-13 so there’s that. Next is that Mike Minor (RHP - TEX) has earned a rotation spot while Oakland’s Chris Bassitt (RHP - OAK) is starting today by process of elimination. In other words, the Athletics are running out of bodies. Bassitt takes Marco Estrada’s place in the rotation so not only couldn’t Bassitt outpitch any of Oakland’s weak starters to earn a rotation spot, he’ll now make his first start and appearance in 2019.

Chris Bassitt is 30 years-old with 40 appearances at this level since 2014 but 154 appearances covering 513 innings in the minors. Dude is a career minor-leaguer for good reason. Bassitt has a career 3.86 ERA at this level but his skills tell another story. He's never posted a sub-4.40 xERA, and his career 8% swing and miss rate further reveals a pitcher with limited stuff. Bassitt gets a decent amount of ground-balls, but not enough to offset the contact. Having to spot a price, there's little reason to get behind Bassitt and the A’s here.

Mike Minor had shoulder surgery, which cost him his 2015 and 2016 seasons. Last season, he was exclusively a starter after only throwing out of the bullpen the previous season. His results were like his pre-injury starter production with a mid-7 K’s/9, 2.5 BB’s/9, and a few too many home runs allowed (1.4 HR/9). In the end, he posted a 4.18 ERA with an xERA of 3.98. His fastball velocity increased almost every month (92.6 mph to 92.8 to 93.2 to 93.5 to 94.1 to 93.9). His xERA dropped from 4.74 in the first half to 3.49 in the second half. In 28 innings this year covering four starts, Minor has a BB/K split of 8/22 with a very respectable 3.99 xERA. Throw in a 13% swing and miss rate and a improving ground-ball rate and we’re happy to get him at this price before the market notices and starts buying too.

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