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San Diego @ PITTSBURGH
San Diego +128 over PITTSBURGH

BEST LINES:  Pinnacle  +128 BET365 +120 SportsInteraction +125 5DIMES +126

Posted at 12:00 PM EST

1:35 PM EST. Jordan Lyles (RHP) has been among the most skilled pitchers in the game in his last two starts and is on the heels of striking out 10 batters across 7.1 innings of one-hit ball last time out. However, Lyles also has a lifetime 5.30 ERA so the market isn’t really convinced yet. A look under the hood reveals that it’s all legit, as Lyles has added another pitch to his arsenal, has a tremendous 62% groundball rate and also has an elite BB/K split of 9/32 in 32 frames with a supported 14% swing and miss rate.

Trevor Williams’ (RHP) solid surface stats (2.72 ERA, 1.13 WHIP) are not going to hold up much longer. The right-hander has benefited greatly from a .236 BABIP while logging a 1.8 K/BB ratio and his 4.93 xERA is a better reflection of how poorly he has pitched this season. Trevor Williams has walked 20 and struck out 35 in 53 frames. He has a groundball rate of 37%. His unsustainable strand rate of 80% (100% in his last game) is what is keeping his surface stats looking pretty. There is nothing pretty about Williams’ skills and if the Padres don’t blow up his stats, his next opponent likely will. A monkey dressed in silk is still a monkey and Trevor Williams is one of the games’ early season imposters.

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Our Pick

San Diego +128 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.56)

L.A. Dodgers @ WASHINGTON
L.A. Dodgers +130 over WASHINGTON

BEST LINES:  Pinnacle  +130 BET365 +120 SportsInteraction +120 5DIMES +126

Posted at 12:00 PM EST

1:35 PM EST. Before the weekend began, the Dodgers had the same record as the Marlins and we outlined their problems in our Friday write-up of them to beat the Nationals. As it turns out, that game was rained out but we came right back on them yesterday with Ross Stripling going and L.A. proceeded to sweep yesterday’s double-header. The Dodgers are having fun again. Justin Turner back makes all the difference in the world, as he is the heartbeat of that team and we see no reason to stop investing in the Dodgers here, even against Stephen Strasburg (RHP).

Look, skills don't lie: when Strasburg is out there, he's consistently brilliant but we’re likely not going to need much run support here to get to the window. We’ll take the Dodgers offense 100% of the time over the Nationals and if Alex Wood (LHP) does what he’s capable of, there is a great chance we’ll be cashing this ticket.

Like Strasburg, Wood is the straight goods. His hot start has been fueled by taking his command to the next level. His great skills and results in four of last five seasons underscore his consistency. Wood comes in with a BB/K split of 8/47 in 51 frames to go along with an ERA of 3.35 but what’s so remarkable about that is that he had the worst strand rate in the game after his first three starts and it wasn’t even close (31%). Wood’s strand rate is still low at 66% but has been normal the past few games. Pay attention to his brilliant xERA of 2.67 and his groundball rate of 53% and know you are getting one of the best starters (and team) in the game at a price.

Please note: We have leans posted daily on Twitter and you can follow us there for leans, possible late plays or any other info we might have to pass along. 

Open an account today at Pinnacle Sports and take advantage of their -104 style pricing on sides and totals, which is 60% better than other sportsbooks.

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Our Pick

L.A. Dodgers +130 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.60)

Arizona @ N.Y. METS
N.Y. METS -1 +128 over Arizona

BEST LINES:  Pinnacle -1½ +128 BET365 -1½ +120 SportsInteraction -1½ +120 5DIMES -1½ +121

Posted at 12:00 PM EST

1:10 PM EST. The Diamondbacks are banged up both mentally and physically, having lost three straight and nine of their last 10. Arizona has scored a mere 21 runs in their last 10 games combined and things surely don’t get easier here against Noah Syndergaard (RHP).  

After missing most of the 2017 season with a torn lateral muscle, Syndergaard was a wild card heading into 2018, carrying a ton of upside, but also a lot of risk. He eased concerns with his spring performance, and has been dominant through his first nine starts, striking out 61 batters in 52.1 innings and hasn’t missed a beat. Syndergaard hasn't missed a beat: Always stingy with the walks, he's really kept them to a minimum this season, an encouraging sign coming off injury. He keeps the ball on the ground pretty well (50%) and plays in a park that slightly suppresses home runs. After serving up two home runs on Opening Day, he's allowed only two since and figures to keep his home run rate pretty low. Syndergaard is showing no signs of rust, and has eased concerns that his skills wouldn't be quite as elite coming off a major injury. He is dominating opposing batters once again, and should continue to be among the highest skilled pitchers in the game as long as he's on the mound. Bottom line, not much has changed regarding Syndergaard, as he is sure to be in the Cy Young conversation by season's end. He’s the straight goods opposing a broken down pitcher. 

When last healthy and on a major league mound (2016), Clay Buchholz (RHP) had unrosterable skills while delivering a 5.11 xERA. Since then, Buchholz has been dropped by both the Phillies and Royals and has pitched for three different minor league teams, one in Double A and two at Triple-A this season in the Pacific Coast League. Most recently, this season, Buchholz pitched at Reno (for Arizona) and started two games before getting this call. He threw a combined 11.2 innings with 10 K’s, 5 walk and an ERA of 5.49. Over five minor league starts this season, two at Omaha, one at Northwest Arkansas (AA) and two at Reno, Buchholz threw 27.1 innings combined with a weak BB/K split of 12/19. Clay Buchholz has been trying to come back from the dead for two years now. While we admire his determination, he’s has several broken parts on his body over that time and he’s a fly-ball pitcher with a big time lack of control. Bottom line, he’s not coming back from the dead. The Snakes are throwing a dart here.

Please note: We have leans posted daily on Twitter and you can follow us there for leans, possible late plays or any other info we might have to pass along. 

Open an account today at Pinnacle Sports and take advantage of their -104 style pricing on sides and totals, which is 60% better than other sportsbooks.

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Our Pick

N.Y. METS -1 +128 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.56)

RangeWLP+/- (Units)
Yesterday210.00+2.36
Last 30 Days39350.00+49.54
Season to Date65750.00+36.16
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