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Milwaukee @ SAN FRANCISCO
SAN FRANCISCO -101 over Milwaukee

Best Lines: Pinnacle -101 BET365 -115 SportsInteraction -115 5DIMES -112 888Sport -115

Posted at 12:30 PM EST. 

4:05 PM EST. Jimmy Nelson (RHP - MIL) struggled with his control in his Triple-A stint, issuing 12 walks in 24 innings. He returned to the Milwaukee rotation for the first time since Tommy John surgery ended his breakout 2017 season. Nelson experienced multiple setbacks during his recovery as he missed the 2018 season. He is the rotation replacement for RHP Jhoulys Chacin, recently placed on the IL with a lower back strain. In his first start back, he was torched by the Marlins, giving up five runs in three innings while walking three batters and striking out two. One of those K’s was against Miami’s starting pitcher, Sandy Alcantara. Jimmy Nelson is a weak road favorite and a big risk.

Madison Bumgarner (LHP - SF) heads into this tilt against the Brewers off a nice start against the Dodgers (7 IP - 4 hits - 1 run). The Brewers do hit LHPs well but with a larger chunk of LHB plate appearances than most teams, that plays into a big Bumgarner platoon advantage. The veteran Giants hurler has held current Milwaukee bats to a .673 OPS while registering a 2.73 xERA. He also owns a 2.42 ERA over his last four starts with three of those coming against teams that rank among MLB's top-10 in OPS. Wrong side favored.

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SAN FRANCISCO -101 (Risking 2.02 units - To Win: 2.00)

Pittsburgh @ MIAMI
Pittsburgh +113 over MIAMI

Best Lines: Pinnacle +113 BET365 +110 SportsInteraction +110 5DIMES +111 888Sport +110

Posted at 12:30 PM EST. 

6:10 PM EST. The Pirates snapped a seven-game losing streak last night by doing what they’ve been doing for weeks, which is knocking the cover off the baseball. In Miami last night, the Pirates belted out another 18 hits en route to a 11-0 win. Despite going 1-7 over their past eight games, Pittsburgh is second in runs scored over that and also third in team OPS. Meanwhile, Miami’s cleanup hitter has an OPS of .545. That’s a demotion OPS. We’ve said it all year that the Pirates have one of the best hitting lineups in baseball while the Marlins rank dead last offensively in everything.

The Marlins are favored here because Pablo Lopez’ (RHP - MIA) stock is high and because Pittsburgh has a rookie starter going making his major league debut. At Marlins Park, Pablo Lopez has given up just two runs over his last 25 innings. That’s nice but the Pirates are seeing beach balls and Lopez has seen his ground balls dry up a bit of late. It does not take long for MLB hitters to figure out guys. Let’s not forget that Lopez was plying his trade at Double-A this time a year ago. He completely skipped Triple-A and while he has a decent array of skills, he still pitches for a team that claws for every run they get.

Dario Agrazal (RHP - PIT) has pitched very well in Triple-A this year. He has made eight starts at the level and has given up two runs or less in six of those eight starts. Also, Agrazal has continued to do what he does best, inducing groundball outs. This year in Triple-A Indianapolis, Agrazal has a strong 54% groundball rate over 49 innings. Over that same span he has an oppBAA against of .216 with 39 K’s and 10 walks. He has also allowed just four jacks over those 49 frames. Agrazal has really had a lengthy, but solid minor league career. Through his years in the Bucs system, he owns an ERA of 3.45 ERA in 594 total innings. While he only has 378 strikeouts, he has only allowed 86 free passes. Agrazal is a groundball pitcher that is not going to blow anyone away with a fastball that sits in the low 90s, but he has had success inducing weak contact. He’s a well-built righty with a hard sinker. Groundball pitchers with hard sinkers who don’t strike a ton of guys out sometimes work out surprisingly well. In any event, there is nothing but profits waiting for those with the patience to keep backing the Pirates when they’re taking back prices. This is a very good team that is underpriced daily.

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Pittsburgh +113 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.26)

San Diego @ COLORADO
COLORADO -1 +111 over San Diego

Pinnacle -1½ +111 BET365 -1½ +110 SportsInteraction -1½+110 5DIMES -1½ +110 888Sport -1½ +110

Posted at 12:30 PM EST. 

8:10 PM EAST. The Rockies let one slip away yesterday after they blew a 9-3 lead and an 11-5 lead, the latter going to the bottom of the ninth. The Coors Field angle is still a strong one because rarely are games decided by one run in this park and we’re going to gamble that the Rockies come back strong today after blowing one yesterday. The Padres could easily suffer a mental letdown too after such a remarkable comeback. The pitching matchup heavily favors the host too.

Eric Lauer (LHP - SD) has a 7% swing & miss rate and a 6% swing & miss rate over his last five starts. His 2.03 ERA over his last five starts is a complete mirage, as his xERA of 5.43 over that span will attest to. Lauer has been the beneficiary of an 82% strand rate over his last five starts and it’s about to blow up on him. A non-strikeout pitcher at this park is trouble waiting to happen.

German Marquez’ (RHP - COL) recent starts have been undone by low strand rates (58% since May 15). Skill indicators have remained strong and Marquez has logged a 5.31 ERA/3.55 xERA over his last six games started. Don't be frightened away by the right-hander's surface numbers at home — those figures (5.06 ERA, 1.50 WHIP) are ballooned by a 36% hit rate. His Saturday foe is a RHB-heavy San Diego squad which owns a whiff-heavy .656 OPS since May 27. The right lean is a boon for Marquez' strikeout potential (over 30% K-rate 2018-19), and the Padres haven't hit him well in the past (.698 OPS, one walk against 29 strikeouts). Marquez has been pitching with ace-level skills since July 2018: he's racking up whiffs and strikeouts, showing pinpoint control, and posting an elite skills/xERA combo. The skills spike coincides with a major bump in slider usage, a sharper (and more effective) curveball, and the ability to find a consistent release point throughout his repertoire. Pitching at home hasn't affected Marquez at all—his skills have actually improved at Coors Field since the breakout began. If Coors Field can be conquered, Marquez might actually be the man to do it. Rockies going away gets the call.

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COLORADO -1 +111 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.22)

RangeWLP+/- (Units)
Yesterday000.000.00
Last 30 Days25510.00-44.62
Season to Date891370.00-46.82
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