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Posted at 12:00 PM EST 

WASHINGTON/Minnesota parlay +189

7:05 PM EST, Washington is a very playable -130 home favorite and we’re going to trust them to bury Jordan Lyles (RHP - MIL). Lyles has been a hit-strand beneficiary in recording a 3.33 ERA over the last month but his xERA over that span is an alarming 6.11. Lyles also has a shaky career line against Washington, a club that has been excellent in their home yard (.824 OPS and trending better) and overall of late (.856 OPS since July 28). The Nationals are a particularly dangerous third-time-around-the-order group; and Lyles already has his own issues, sometimes making too many pitches to get through four or five frames.

For the Nationals, it’ll be Anibal Sanchez (RHP - WAS). Sanchez has been a feast-or-famine option but Milwaukee has struggled since the break and Sanchez is working on five days’ rest; that’s his best interval by a wide margin but this is more of a play on the Nationals to beat Lyles and the Brewers. 

As for the second part of this parlay, the Twinkies are damn tough while the Rangers are getting softer and more beatable by the day. Jose Berrios (RHP - MIN) has a BB/K split of 35/144 over 153 innings while Ariel Jurado (RHP - TEX) sounds like a mermaid and is pitching like one. Jurado has 72 K’s in 97 innings overall and a 7.09/6.44 ERA/xERA split over his past five starts.

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Posted at 12:00 PM EST 

3:05 PM EST. Reggie McClain (RHP - SEA) is a 26-year-old reliever with three appearances covering six innings to his name. McClain’s minor-league contract from Class AAA Tacoma was selected, and he was added to the roster on August 2nd, replacing the open spot that belonged to Mike Leake before Leake was traded. McClain started the season at Modesto and dominated. He pitched in six games, allowing one run in 16 innings with 20 strikeouts and four walks. It earned him a promotion to Class AA Arkansas on April 29. After posting a 1.15 ERA in six appearances with the Travelers, he moved up to Tacoma on May 30. In 17 games with the Rainiers (Triple-AAA) he was 3-4 with a 3.29 ERA. In 41 innings, he struck out 34 batters with 18 walks. At this level, he’s allowed just four hits in his six innings but we’re not counting on him for anything. He’s likely only going to pitch two or three innings anyway, as this appears to be a “bullpen start” for the M’s.

While the Blue Jays are playing some decent and exciting ball, Trent Thornton (RHP - TOR) cannot be priced like he’s pitching for the Yankees. It’s been a top heavy year in baseball with favorites killing it practically the entire season, which in turn is causing us to get buried, not to mention a little reluctant to pull the trigger on many of these underdogs but this one we cannot refuse. Again, Trent Thornton and the Jays are very simply not good enough to be priced like they’re James Paxton and the Yankees.

Thornton established himself pretty clearly in the minors as a control-oriented, low-to-average strikeout pitcher, so it has been very odd to see him struggle with walks while piling up strikeouts in the majors. His subpar first-pitch strike rate suggests the control problems have been legitimate, while his below-average swing & miss rate of 9% gives another indication that his current strikeout rate won't last. Thornton also has one of the worst groundball rates (30%) in MLB among all qualified starters. Thornton has been a massive underdog many times this season and now he goes from that to this because he beat the Yanks last time out and because the Mariners are playing so poorly? Yeah, the Jays can win here going away but there is too much value in fading Thornton to pass up this opportunity.

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Posted at 12:00 PM EST 

6:40 PM EST. Wrong side favored. Anthony DeSclafani (RHP - CIN) is coming off a rocky outing at Washington, but so what, as the Nats have been bashing it for well over six weeks now. DeSclafani’s previous four starts were winnable games and that’s precisely what he’s been delivering practically the entire season. The Reds right-hander has registered a 2.57 ERA/3.62 xERA over four starts versus the Cardinals this season. Additionally, the Cards have had their share of struggles on the road, as they own a mere .678 OPS overall in the month of August. That figure is more than 110 points off the league’s August average of .799. The right-heavy (big benefit in DeSclafani’s splits) St. Louis order has been a bottom-10 group against RHPs all season.

Miles Mikolas (RHP - STL) owns a 3.08 ERA/4.10 xERA over his last six games started. In this turn – on the road where Mikolas has faltered this season – the Cardinals right-hander will be matched up against a Cincinnati club which has pummeled him in the past (.933 OPS). The Reds are batting a high-contact .284/.347/.509 in August. Miles Mikolas’ claim to fame is that he doesn’t walk guys. He’s issued just 23 BB all season in 137 innings. However, his road ERA is 6.34 (compared to 2.43 at home) because his home park keeps balls in the yard. His road/home split is not an anomaly, as he continues to give up hard hit fly balls on the road that leave the park at a pretty high rate. Also note that he’s been roughed up by lefties (.867 OPS). We repeat -- wrong side favored.

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