Posted at 11:00 AM EST. Odds subject to change.

Pinnacle +125  BET365 +120 888Sport +120

St. Louis +125 over Milwaukee

7:40 PM EST. It matters not starts for the Cardinals, as this is a pure fade on Milwaukee and its starter. You see, the Brewers clinched the National League Central title last night and can now breathe a sigh of relief after 157 games into a very long season. It’s highly unlikely that the Crew do anything here but show up in body after what figured to be a pretty good celebration last night. For Milwaukee, the only thing left to do is get its rotation lined up the way they want for the playoffs and to not overuse any bullpen arms. It also doesn’t hurt our chances that Wade Miley (LHP - MIL) and his incredibly misleading 3.20 ERA takes the mound. 

Miley has walked 10 and struck out 18 over his past 28 frames. His ERA over that span was 3.25 but his xERA was 5.69. That’s been the story of his entire year, as he’s a pitch-to-contact type that relies solely on the good fortune on his BABIP (batting average on balls in play) and strand rate. Miley’s BABIP is .228. Major League average is .287. His strand rate is 81.2%. Major league average is 74%. Miley throws 89 MPH on his best day and doesn’t strike out guys often. His K% is one of the lowest in the business among qualified starters with eight or more starts this season. Wade Miley has had ERA’s over 5.50 twice over the past six years over an entire season. He’s been over 5 in four of his last eight years. He’s 36 years-old with 77 K’s in 115 frames this year and has somehow managed to pitch to some of the most lucky margins we have ever seen. Regression is inevitable and it’ll be bad. It’s a great spot to fade Milwaukee and it’s never a bad idea to fade Miley when he’s favored. Combine the two and we have ourselves a bet.

Sherwood

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------

Posted at 11:00 AM EST. Odds subject to change.

Pinnacle +121  BET365 +113  888Sport +105

Detroit -1½ +113 over Kansas City

6:40 PM EST. The Royals own a bottom-5 OPS against LHPs (.655) over the past and will face one of the best here in Tarik Skubal (LHP - DET). Skubal has looked like a true ace since getting back on the mound after elbow surgery (2.95 ERA, 0.97 WHIP in 76 IP). His underlying skills have been just as good: 31% K%, 5% BB%, 26% K-BB%, 52% grounders and an elite 3.01 xERA. In addition, check out his groundball rate over his four seasons in the majors: 28%, 38%, 46%, 52%. This is next year’s Cy Young winner if he stays healthy. 

Now two years removed from Tommy John surgery, Jonathan Bowlan makes his MLB debut here. 6'6" and 240 pounds, it's a big frame that can eat innings alongside a varied repertoire of fringe-to-above-average stuff. Bowlan leans heavily on both a four seamer and  two-seamer, both of which sit around 93 mph. That said, the swing and miss (SwK%) numbers here are pretty rudimentary (11.1% and 6.7%) and the average exit velocity on both sits mid-to-high 90s. Bowlan's slider is his most used secondary and features a solid SwK% (15.5) giving him a couple of impact pitches. However, the outcomes have been substandard this year across two levels, resulting in a 5.91 ERA that both his ERA and xERA says he's fully earned. The command has regressed some as well upon reaching Triple-A and he's giving up a lot of longballs (19 HR allowed in 102.IP), suggesting he may not be long for the rotation. Bottom line is dude was getting banged around at both Double and Triple A this season and the Royals are just giving him a little taste of the bigs to see how hew looks before they give up on him completely.

Sherwood

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------