Posted at 11:00 AM EST. Odds subject to change.

Pinnacle -120  BET365 -120  888Sport -120

Ravens +8½ and Rams +7½ (6-point Teaser), -120

1:00 EST. We talked about this on our podcast - you can listen to this week's episode by copying and pasting the URL at the bottom of this write up - and it's our favorite Week 4 teaser for several reasons. Firstly and most importantly, it fits our strategy of teasing 6-points through key numbers, commonly called a "Wong Teaser" (an ideology established by famous gambler and author, Stanford Wong). We're teasing the Rams from +1.5 to +7.5 and the Ravens from +2.5 to +8.5, which gets our underdogs in an advantageous position over the numbers 3, 6, and 7 - the most common margins of victory in the NFL.

The Ravens experienced an unfortunate loss last week at home. Sloppy Maryland weather from a fleeing tropical storm didn't help, but Lamar Jackson and the Ravens were full of mistakes in Week 3. Two turnovers and a big miss from Justin Tucker were just a part of the problem. Multiple missed third down opportunities in overtime, including an uncalled pass interference on Baltimore's final drive, were ultimately too much for the home team to overcome. They also had Odell Beckham and 7 defensive starters out last Sunday. Many of those players are "questionable" heading into Week 4, so we expect them to be at least somewhat healthier heading into this big AFC North contest.

The Browns, on the other hand, are market darlings right now. It's hard to count how many first place designations they own on defense through three weeks, it's no doubt impressive, and Deshaun Watson is coming off his best game against a porous Tennessee pass-defense. That's all good and fine, but the Ravens present a different challenge. Lamar Jackson is a perennial x-factor because of his elusiveness and running ability, and the down-hill rushing attack of Baltimore (158 rush yards per game, ranked 5th) will be tough for Cleveland to completely stifle. Baltimore is easily the best offense they'll face the first four weeks. In a divisional battle between two 2-1 teams, it's hard to imagine this not being a close battle. The Ravens' defense will be due for some positive regression, too, after letting backup Gardner Minshew drive down the field in pivotal moments last Sunday.

The Rams are simply not being valued correctly in NFL markets. Los Angeles was very competitive against one of the best teams in the NFL in Week 2, losing by only one-score but out-gaining the 49ers 386-365. Against an ultra-desperate 0-2 Bengals team at home, the Rams easily could have won if it wasn't for an unfortunate tipped-ball-turned-interception and some sloppy inefficiency on third downs. Still, they out-paced the Bengals in yards per play (5.6 to 4.2).

As we discussed above, the Colts were fortunate to beat the Ravens in Week 3. Not to mention, this is an Indianapolis squad that were 1-point underdogs at Houston in Week 2. Now they're 1-point favorites against the Rams? This cannot be. The Colts' defense has played well and their offense has improved under Shane Steichen, but the Rams will be the more desperate operation with a 1-2 record. Buyer-beware on a shady home favorite!

We'll tease the Ravens and Rams 6-points in two games where the underdogs could win straight up. We're confident they can at least keep it close.

Farley

Podcast Link: https://layingthepoints.castos.com/episodes/week-4-market-analysis-leans-free-picks-teaser-of-the-week

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