Gonzaga vs UConn
Gonzaga +122 over UConn

Posted at 11:00 AM EST. Odds subject to change.

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T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, NV

Streaming: TBS

Gonzaga +122 over UConn

8:49 PM EST. UConn has played three games in this tournament and cashed all three times. If you bet against UConn in any one of its three games, you were dead 5 minutes into the game. The Huskies wiped the floor with Rick Pitino’s Gaels in the Round of 64 when they cruised to a 24-point win and covered the 9-point spread with ease. The Huskies next victim was highly rated Saint Mary’s, where UConn was a small 3½-point choice and wiped the floor with those Gaels too in an easy 70-55 win. UConn could have won by more but with an 18-point lead with 2 minutes left, they just ran the clock out on every possession. Then came the Razorbacks of Arkansas where UConn went gate-to-wire in an absolute romp. That was on Thursday night in prime time in which the entire country saw UConn toy with the Hogs in a 23-point win. Three rocking chair games and now the tournament favorite is just a one-possession favorite with a massive amount of recency bias and media hype on their side.

We’re not predicting a Gonzaga win here. We do not predict games. If you want predictions, tune in to Charles Barkely pregame and you’ll get one. We would not be surprised one bit if UConn steamrolled the Zags too. The Huskies are the greatest show on earth right now while the Zags have one cover in three games and were very lucky to advance to this round after Julian Strawther hit a 3-pointer with six seconds left to send UCLA home.

The Zags have lost just twice since December when they fell to Baylor, with those losses coming once in overtime, and once by one point. They ride a 12-game winning streak into this one, scoring 84 or more points in nine of those. They also beat Saint Mary’s by 26 in the WCC Finals so perhaps Saint Mary’s wasn’t all that.

UConn is without question the flavor of the day. They are obliterating pointspreads and oddsmakers are keenly aware of the one-sided action that type of run will produce, yet they opened the Huskies up as a -1½-point choice. Why? The inefficient market has bitten and has driven that number up from the -1½-opener to the current -2½ point line (at the time of this writing). It might even go to -3 by game time because it is so difficult to bet against the Huskies right now.

If you bet UConn here of course you can win but you would be very late to the party. If you have bet UConn in each game and want to continue to bet them, do you really think oddsmakers are eager to give away more money on the Huskies? It’s been too easy for the Huskies and that’s rarely the best time to get behind a team. The Zags check all the boxes that contrarian bettors look for.


Our Pick

Gonzaga +122 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.44)

RangeWLP+/- (Units)
Last 30 Days34350.00-4.42
Season to Date1051350.00-62.57