BEST LINES:  Pinnacle -6 -108 BET365 -6 -110 SportsInteraction -6 -110 5DIMES -6 -105

Posted at 1:00 PM EST.

8:35 PM EST. The Cavaliers appear to have their backs up against the wall after two blowout losses in Boston, but this is the NBA and a series doesn't start until a team wins one on the road. This is not the first hole that LeBron James will have to dig his team out of, as the Cavs were dead to rights in the first round against the Pacers and bounced back big time and a repeat of something similar is not out of the question. That’s just fodder, however.

We’re in the value business and while we love what the Celtics have done and appreciate how dangerous they are and that they have the NBA’s best coach, that matters not for this game. What matters is value so allow us to explain. We’ll take you back to the last series in which the Celtics were a 9-point dog in their first game in Philadelphia and a 7½-point dog in Game 2, also in Philadelphia. The point is that the Cavs CANNOT be a smaller home favorite against the exact same team. This is clearly an overreaction to what the C’s did to the Cavs in Cleveland and we’re the beneficiaries of a short priced favorite. Remember, the Cavs destroyed Toronto in four straight games but had bad shooting nights in three of the four halves they played in Boston. This now becomes a great wager based on market overreactions and we’re on it.

Please note: We have leans posted daily on Twitter and you can follow us there for leans, possible late plays or any other info we might have to pass along. 

Open an account today at Pinnacle Sports and take advantage of their -104 style pricing on sides and totals, which is 60% better than other sportsbooks.

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BEST LINES:  Pinnacle +181 BET365 +180 SportsInteraction +180 5DIMES +180

CLEVELAND +181 over Boston

Posted May 18 before Game 3

This is strictly a flip of a wager we made on the Celtics before the series began so if you did not bet Boston beforehand, this wager does not apply. We have Boston +242 in the series and with them being up 2-0, it now provides us with opportunities. The first option, would be to let the bet stand but we’re not doing that because the other options are better. The next option would be to buy out of our Boston liability and free-roll on the Celtics. In other words, we would bet 1.1 units on Cleveland to win the series to win 2 units and therefore we would be free rolling (no risk) on Boston for a net profit of 3.74 units (4.84 units if they win -1.1 units for our Cleveland bet). That’s a very good option but there is also a third option, which we are going to use and that would be to flip the entire bet and free-roll on Cleveland.

Since we stand to win 4.84 on Boston in the series, we will now take that 4.84 units and bet the entire amount on Cleveland @ +181 for a return of 8.76 units at no risk. Should Cleveland take care of business at home and win the next two games, Cleveland will once again be the favorite in the updated series price and that will provide us with more options at that time. We have an opportunity to cash in big in this series with absolutely no risk and if you were in board with Boston before this series began, you should utilize the same options. Therefore, the wager here is 4.84 units on the Cavs at +181 to win 8.76 units, which would be a net profit of 6.76 units.

Please note: We have leans posted daily on Twitter and you can follow us there for leans, possible late plays or any other info we might have to pass along. 

Open an account today at Pinnacle Sports and take advantage of their -104 style pricing on sides and totals, which is 60% better than other sportsbooks.

Play:

BEST LINES:  Pinnacle +242 BET365 +240 SportsInteraction +225 5DIMES +235

BOSTON +240 over Cleveland

Posted April 13 before Game 1

First game tip off – Sunday April 13 @ 3:30 PM EST.

After Boston's intense injuries and Cleveland's massive makeover, this series looks far different than last year's matchup or what was projected earlier this year. A Kyrie Irving-Isaiah Thomas matchup has become a Terry Rozier-George Hill duel. Nine players from last year's conference finals series will participate in this year's rematch. Cleveland's LeBron James is seeking his eighth consecutive trip to the NBA Finals. He is averaging 34.3 points, 9.4 rebounds and 9.0 assists in the playoffs while shooting 55.3%. That’s just a brief intro to this series and there is more but we’re still in the value business and in that regard, Boston is the only play here.

You see, Cleveland was a +180 underdog against Toronto and now go from that to a 3-1 favorite over Boston and that, my friends, is the epitome of an overreaction. LeBron is a stone-cold killer that the entire basketball world watched dismantle the #1 seeded Raptors in four games. However, we pointed out that Toronto was not close to being a #1 seed, that they were not a good three-point shooting team, they had no go-to-guy, no closer and they had either a rookie or journeyman on LeBron. The Baby Dinosaurs were a #1 seed by default, as the Wizards, Cavs and Celtics dealt with injuries all year. LeBron singlehandedly got Dwayne Casey fired.

By contrast, Boston has the NBA Coach of the Year and that, too, is not close (even though he’s not going to win it). We’re confident that the shrewd tactics of Brad Stevens can counter the basketball genius of James' remarkable late-career resurgence. Stevens will try rotating personnel and various schemes (layers of big-men support) to reduce James' dominance. Boston’s young talent is that good, they have the better coach, defense and home court. LeBron is ridiculous, yes, but this is still his worst supporting cast in recent memory and there is a reason they were +180 against Toronto.

We’re not going to break it down with X’s and O’s because it matters not. What we know for sure is that Cleveland is a one-bucket favorite in Game 1 and therefore the C’s have a great chance to take a 1-0 series lead, Should that come to pass, we can buy out of liability and free-roll with the Celtics or even switch the bet and free roll on the Cavs. With home court, a healthy, talented and confident lineup and a brilliant coach that will get his just dues soon enough, the Celtics hold all the value here.  

Please note: We have leans posted daily on Twitter and you can follow us there for leans, possible late plays or any other info we might have to pass along. 

Open an account today at Pinnacle Sports and take advantage of their -104 style pricing on sides and totals, which is 60% better than other sportsbooks.

Play: