NBA Free Picks for

Orlando @ Miami

Miami -8½ -109 over Orlando

Posted at 1:30 PM EST odds are subject to change.

Pinnacle -8½ -109 BET365 -8½ -110 SportsInteraction -8½ -110 888Sport -8½ -110

Miami -8½ over Orlando

8:10 PM EST. The Magic might just be 19-29 when you unroll the fish wrap and find them near the bottom of the Eastern Conference standings, but where it matters most, at the pay window, Orlando has a pretty sparkling 27-20-1 record Against the Spread (ATS). Much of that hay was made in the last three weeks, as the Magic have covered in seven of their last nine games. In that lot are double digit wins over Boston (113-98), New Orleans (123-110) and Golden State (115-104). Last time out, the Magic won and covered in a 126-120 win over the Pacers as 5-point favorites. Dare we say that Orlando’s stock might be at its season high?

If you read any gambling publications today, the Magic are being touted because the Heat, “Haven't been playing like they are 8.5 points better than any other team in the NBA.” Miami has also built a reputation in the market as a team that “plays down” to its competition. We can’t speak to either of those points, but we’ll use those narratives as fodder, as we mine for value in The Association.

The Heat just beat the C’s as well, but it was by a narrow 98-95 margin. Prior to that, Miami had not covered in two straight and three of four, including just edging out the Zion Williamson-less Pelicans, which is not a good look. We discussed the Magic’s solid ATS record, well, the Heat are on the opposite end of that success, going just 20-27-2 against the number. With the Heat’s poor record ATS in relation to the Magic’s current run of covers, perhaps these 8½-points look like low-hanging fruit but do not be tempted. The Heat are short-priced on their home floor against an over-performing invader.

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Our Pick

Miami -8½ -109 (Risking 2.18 units - To Win: 2.00)

Toronto @ Golden State

Toronto +5 -101 over Golden State

Posted at 1:30 PM EST odds are subject to change.

Pinnacle +5 -101 BET365 +5 -110 SportsInteraction +5 -120 888Sport +5 -110

Toronto +5 -101 over Golden State

10:10 PM EST. If you stayed up late to watch the Warriors knock off Memphis, 122-120, on Wednesday night, you know about the drama that came late, and the huge celebration that followed after Jordan Poole laid in the winning basket. The Dubs ended a four game home losing streak, and they made their way back to .500 at 24-24. We’ve seen Golden State win some big games over the years and rarely do the Warriors show as much emotion after a win as they did in that victory. Perhaps it was the combination of the ejection of Steph Curry, Klay Thompson’s go-ahead three-pointer, and the Grizzlies’ roaring dunk to tie the game, which all came before Poole’s layup for the W as time expired. If you read anything on the Warriors today, it’s business as usual, as Curry was named a starter to the All-Star team (for a ninth time). You’d never know the Raptors were in town, or that the Dubs are coming off such an emotional dump.

Just north of The Bay Area, the Raptors were in Sacramento, waffling the Kings to the tune of 113-95. It was a good win to be sure, but it was also lost in the shuffle of the excitement of the Warriors game, which was going on at the same time. The Raptors and Kings are also, well, the Raptors and Kings. They are not teams that get a ton of respect, or attention in the (American) market (in Toronto's case).

The Raps are the perfect foil to help us catch the Warriors in what looks to be a potential letdown spot after the Dubs knocked off the second-placed Grizz. The Raptors turned in one of their best defensive performances against a red hot Kings team, and Scottie Barnes had a career-high 10 assists and is growing quickly into the next great backcourt general since taking over as Toronto’s point guard. Moreover, Raps head coach Nick Nurse has had the formula to stymie the Warriors before. What, he can’t do it again? Regardless, the situation dictates the play here. We’ll put the points in our back pockets and hope to never need them.