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Posted at 10:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

St. Louis +230 over Philadelphia

Hunter Dobbins (RHP- St. Louis) — 3.50 ERA

Jesús Luzardo (LHP- Philadelphia) — 3.24 ERA

6:40 PM EST. This is one of those games where the number looks considerably more interesting than the matchup itself. Jesús Luzardo has been very good for Philadelphia with a 3.24 ERA, but Hunter Dobbins is right there at 3.50 for St. Louis. We are not talking about a situation where one club has a clear-cut starting pitching advantage. The ERA difference is only 0.26, and that makes a price north of +200 on the Cardinals difficult for us to understand.

Dobbins has done a good job of limiting damage, and the right-hander has been able to work himself through innings without allowing games to get away from him. Luzardo brings the higher strikeout ceiling, which is certainly worth acknowledging, but Philadelphia is being priced as though the difference between these two starters is much greater than it actually is. From our perspective, the Cardinals do not need to have the better pitcher tonight; they need Dobbins to pitch to his current level and keep the game within striking distance.

That is what makes the St. Louis price so appealing. We are getting a substantial return in a matchup where both starting pitchers have ERA's in the low-to-mid threes and neither side has a commanding advantage on the mound. At this price, we are not asking St. Louis to dominate Philadelphia. We are simply betting that the Cardinals are capable of winning a competitive baseball game often enough to make a price this large worth taking.

This is a pure value play for us. Dobbins and Luzardo are much closer statistically than the +200-plus price suggests, and we are willing to take the Cardinals outright rather than pay the premium on Philadelphia. The number is simply too high on St. Louis in what we expect to be a very competitive game.

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Cleveland -1½ +105 over Colorado

Joey Cantillo (LHP- Cleveland) — 3.82 ERA

Tanner Gordon (RHP- Colorado) — 6.26 ERA

8:40 PM EST. The strikeout numbers give Cantillo an advantage we like. The Cleveland left-hander has shown a better ability to miss bats and work out of trouble, while Gordon's current strikeout profile does not provide much protection against the contact he is allowing. The 6.26 ERA is not simply an isolated number for us; it is an indication that Gordon has been putting too many runners on and has not consistently been able to finish hitters. That is a dangerous combination against a Cleveland lineup that should have opportunities to apply pressure.

Colorado needs Gordon to keep this game under control early, and that is asking a lot from a pitcher carrying an ERA well above five. Cantillo does not have to be spectacular for Cleveland to have the pitching advantage. He simply needs to give the Guardians a reasonable start and allow their offense to work against a Colorado starter who has been much easier to score against. From a numbers standpoint, that is the side of this matchup we want.

Cantillo has the better current ERA, the superior swing-and-miss profile and the more dependable overall numbers, while Gordon has not shown he can keep up. We are laying the runs with Cleveland and expecting the Guardians to separate as this game progresses. We are looking for some heavy bats tonight, and Cleveland to take the “W”

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Baltimore -1½ +170 over Tampa Bay

Trevor Rogers (LHP- Baltimore) — 4.15 ERA

Freddy Peralta (RHP- Tampa Bay) — 5.27 ERA

7:15 PM EST. We are going back to Baltimore here, and the starting-pitching numbers give us a legitimate reason to lay the run line. Trevor Rogers has quietly put together a solid stretch of work, and his 4.15 ERA is considerably better than Freddy Peralta's 5.27. The bigger number for us is the WHIP, where Rogers sits at 1.249 compared with 1.477 for Peralta. That tells us Rogers has been doing a much better job of keeping traffic off the bases, and that is exactly what we want from a pitcher backing a run-line position.

Peralta's strikeout rate is the one area that stands out in his favour, but the strikeouts have not translated into the type of run prevention we expect from a pitcher carrying his current price. He is averaging 8.6 K/9, compared with 7.7 for Rogers, yet the Tampa Bay right-hander has still allowed considerably more baserunners. That is the analytical angle we are interested in. Strikeouts are important, but walks, hits and overall traffic ultimately determine how much pressure a pitcher puts on his own team.

Rogers is limiting the damage more effectively, while Peralta is giving opposing hitters more opportunities.

We are taking Baltimore on the run line. The Orioles have the better ERA, the better WHIP and the more favorable walk profile from the starting pitchers, while Peralta's superior strikeout rate has not translated into comparable run prevention. This is the type of matchup where we are willing to lay the extra run because Rogers gives Baltimore a much better foundation, and we trust the Orioles to take advantage of Peralta's current struggles and win this one by multiple

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