Sportsinteraction

Posted at 10:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

Milwaukee +125 over San Diego

9:30 PM EST. Milwaukee is up 2-0 in this series, San Diego is back home with its season hanging by a thread, and Nick Pivetta owns a 2.86 ERA compared to Dustin May's 4.70. Throw all of that into the blender and out comes San Diego as the favorite tonight.

We'll take the other side.

There is no urgency premium in baseball that turns a team into something it wasn't yesterday. San Diego absolutely has to win. Milwaukee doesn't. Everybody knows it, and it's built directly into this price. What interests us is that after watching the first two games of this series, we're not convinced the Padres should be laying anything against the Brewers.

San Diego's offense has produced almost nothing. The Padres are hitting .206/.316/.221 through two games with exactly one extra-base hit. Milwaukee pitching deserves plenty of credit for that, but this isn't some offensive machine returning home to Petco Park, either. San Diego actually posted a lower OPS at home this season than it did on the road, so the change of scenery isn't enough for us to suddenly price the Padres like the superior club.

Dustin May isn't the reason for the wager. His 4.70 ERA isn't pretty, he hasn't worked deep into games and his numbers since arriving in Milwaukee have been worse. Fine. We're not paying for an ace. We're taking +120 with a pitcher who still owns a legitimate major-league arsenal and, more importantly, doesn't have to give Milwaukee seven innings.

That's where this gets interesting.

Milwaukee can shorten this game with Trevor Megill, Abner Uribe, Aaron Ashby and JoJo Romero all available. San Diego has an outstanding back end as well, but the supposed bullpen advantage hasn't meant much in this series. The Brewers have already come back against that unit twice, and Mason Miller was extended to 40 pitches Sunday in an attempt to protect a one-run lead that disappeared anyway.

Then there's Pivetta. His 2.86 ERA looks terrific, and since returning from an elbow flexor strain he's allowed just three earned runs in 18? innings. That's precisely the type of surface number we're happy to sell at this price. He missed almost five months and has made only four starts since returning. San Diego has been understandably careful with him, and there's little reason to believe the leash suddenly disappears in October. This could become a bullpen game considerably earlier than the pitching matchup on the marquee suggests.

Milwaukee also owns one advantage that tends to get overlooked when everyone starts dissecting starting pitchers: the Brewers are simply the better defensive team. They finished second in deserved runs prevented while San Diego ranked 16th. Milwaukee looked sloppy Sunday, including a couple of errors and another misplay that wasn't scored as one, but we're not interested in treating one ugly defensive afternoon as the new normal.

The Brewers also have enough left-handed bats to make Pivetta work. Jake Bauers, Brice Turang, Garrett Mitchell, Sal Frelick and Christian Yelich can all hit from the left side, while William Contreras and Jackson Chourio give Milwaukee legitimate threats from the right. This isn't a lineup that needs to knock Pivetta out in the third inning. Make him throw pitches, get into the bullpen and take another crack at the same group Milwaukee has already beaten twice.

And that's really the point here. San Diego is being priced on Pivetta's ERA, home field and desperation. Milwaukee is being priced as the team that can afford to lose.

We couldn't care less who can afford to lose.

The Brewers have been the better team in this series, they're deeper than May's pitching line suggests, they have the superior defense, and their bullpen is fully loaded. San Diego has scored four runs in two games and now we're being offered plus money to make the Padres prove they're suddenly the better team.

At +120, that's an easy invitation to accept.

Sportsinteraction

Play: