Posted Friday at 2:00pm EST and odds are subject to change.

NFL Week: 5

What you see below is our early leans. Many of the selections below will stay the same and some will be moved into official plays with wagers on Sunday. However, there is also the possibility that we see, read or get a sense that something is not right with one of our selections and change our pick. There are several different criteria we use to grade a game and make it an official play and a lot of things can happen or change between Friday and Sunday. We’ll have all write-ups (except Monday Night Football) posted on Friday but our actual wagers won’t be posted until Sunday morning between 10 AM and 12:00 PM EST

Sunday, October 12

NY Jets +7 over Denver

Tottenham Hotspur Stadium – London, England

9:30 PM. There’s a universal truth in this racket: when a team looks “too easy,” it almost never is. That’s where we are with the Denver Broncos, who are fresh off their Super Bowl–sized scalp over Philadelphia and now being asked to lay a converted touchdown overseas against the winless New York Jets. If that doesn’t set off alarms, it should.

 

Public perception is doing all the heavy lifting here. Denver’s stock couldn’t be higher — back-to-back wins, a rookie quarterback everyone suddenly loves, and a feel-good storyline about “momentum” and “turning the corner.” It’s the type of narrative that gets priced in, and we can see that in neon lights with this inflated number. Bo Nix is being asked to travel across the Atlantic, give up seven points, and play his third straight emotionally charged game. That’s a lot to ask of a first-year signal caller who threw for just 60 yards last week on 25 attempts.

 

The Broncos’ win over Philadelphia was deserved but fluky — the product of turnovers, short fields, and a defense playing out of its mind for 60 minutes. Now they’re in a completely different situation: early morning start time, neutral site, and a desperate opponent who has been close in multiple games. The Jets are 0–5, but two of those losses came by a combined four points. They’ve been competitive; they just haven’t finished.

 

Let’s not forget the trend that matters most: since 2000, winless teams playing as road underdogs have covered nearly 60% of the time. Why? Because desperation is a hell of an equalizer. The Jets aren’t mailing this one in — they’re staring down a season-defining opportunity to quiet the noise, away from the New York media circus, in an environment where they can finally breathe.

 

Justin Fields has quietly been serviceable despite the chaos around him. He threw for 283 yards and two scores last week against Dallas while Breece Hall ripped off 113 on the ground. The Jets moved the ball; they just made killer mistakes in key moments. Clean those up even marginally, and this line is absurd.

 

Meanwhile, Denver’s been living off a defense that’s due for correction. They’ve forced turnovers at an unsustainable rate, and regression on that side of the ball is lurking. Combine that with a jet-lagged rookie QB, a bloated spread, and a classic letdown setup after an emotional high, and we’ve got the perfect storm. Recommendation: NY Jets +7

 

Arizona +7½ over Indianapolis

Lucas Oil Stadium – Indianapolis, IN

 

1:00 PM ET. We’ll take the points. We’ll take the chaos. And we’ll gladly step in front of the “feel-good” Colts machine that the market can’t get enough of.

 

The narrative around Indianapolis is spotless. Daniel Jones resurrecting his career. A 4-1 record. Blowout wins. Historical scoring pace. It’s the kind of story that makes casual bettors line up to lay a touchdown and think it’s easy money. Yet beneath the shine, this number is dripping with inflation.

 

The Colts beat the Raiders and Panthers — two teams circling the drain — then caught Las Vegas in a flat spot and blew the doors off them. Credit where it’s due: Jones has looked competent and confident. But when everything is going right, that’s exactly when the market turns on you. The Colts have been living clean, maybe too clean, and now they’re laying more than a converted touchdown against a team coming off a humiliating loss. That’s a dangerous combination.

 

Arizona is an easy team to dismiss right now, which is precisely why we want them. They blew a 97.5% win probability against Tennessee, coughed up a sure touchdown at the goal line, and somehow lost 22–21. That sort of collapse burns deep. It also sharpens a locker room. You don’t lose a game like that and come out flat the next week.

 

Whether it’s Kyler Murray or Jacoby Brissett under center, this is still a capable Cardinals offense with weapons and experience. Brissett is not some deer-in-headlights backup — he’s a veteran who spent four years in that same Indy locker room. He knows the playbook, he knows that defense, and he knows exactly how to manage a game like this.

 

The Colts’ stock couldn’t be higher, and the Cardinals’ couldn’t be lower. That’s the point. We’re buying Arizona at its absolute low. You can’t fake desperation, and the Cards have plenty of it. Teams coming off backbreaking losses tend to play tighter, smarter, and more controlled football the next week — especially when being spotted this kind of head start. Recommendation: Arizona +7½ 

 

Seattle over Jacksonville

1:00 PM ET. The Jaguars are 4-1, and everyone suddenly wants to believe. They’ve won three in a row, beat the Chiefs on Monday night, and have a quarterback saying all the right things about “handling success.” That’s cute, but it’s also the setup for a letdown.

 

Jacksonville is playing on a short week after an emotional, high-variance win in prime time. They needed a defensive touchdown, a circus pick-six from Devin Lloyd, and a last-second scramble TD from Trevor Lawrence just to get past Kansas City. Now, with one less day to prepare and a cluster of injuries to key contributors—Brenton Strange, Bhayshul Tuten, Dyami Brown, Travon Walker—this outfit is being asked to flip the emotional switch and do it again against a physical, veteran opponent.

 

Seattle, meanwhile, just lost a gut-punch game in Tampa where everything went right until it didn’t. The Seahawks put up 35, Darnold threw for 341 yards and four touchdowns, and they controlled long stretches of that game. One fluke deflection off a lineman’s helmet was the difference between heartbreak and a 4-1 start. That’s variance, not form.

 

The Seahawks’ front seven remains elite against the run—third in the league, allowing just 83 yards per game—and that’s exactly the kind of profile that gives Jacksonville trouble. Lawrence has already turned the ball over six times this season, and now he’s missing his safety blanket tight end against a defense that thrives on pressure.

 

Seattle has already proven it can travel east and handle business, having won in Pittsburgh earlier this year. Darnold’s growing comfort with Jaxon Smith-Njigba is no small thing either—the duo has been nearly unstoppable, and they now face a Jags secondary ranked 27th against the pass.

 

This is a bad spot for Jacksonville and a perfect one for Seattle. The Jags are fat and happy after a primetime upset, the public is fully on board, and the Seahawks come in as the steadier, more battle-tested side with every reason to be furious. Recommendation: Seattle over Jacksonville

 

Carolina +3 over Dallas

Bank of America Stadium – Charlotte, NC

1:00 PM ET. Dallas is back in the public’s good graces after two straight strong showings without CeeDee Lamb. Dak Prescott is racking up numbers, Brian Schottenheimer’s offense is humming, and the Cowboys are getting hyped as a team “figuring it out.” That’s precisely when they become fade material.

 

Dallas is being priced like a trustworthy road favorite, which they are not. They’ve faced a string of soft defensive looks and benefitted from short fields and turnovers — not sustained, efficient drives. Prescott’s production looks great on paper, but he’s doing it against units that can’t rush the passer or defend the deep middle. The Cowboys still have no downfield dimension without Lamb, and their offensive line is one injury away from a full-blown shuffle.

 

Now they head into humid Charlotte for an early start against a Carolina side that’s trending up. The Panthers just rallied to beat Miami in a game that showed their grit more than their flash. Dave Canales’ team doesn’t care how it looks; they care about making you uncomfortable. They play heavy, control time of possession, and force you to defend the run for four quarters.

 

Rico Dowdle’s breakout performance against the Dolphins (206 rushing yards, NFC Offensive Player of the Week) came at the perfect time. Dowdle spent four years buried on the Dallas depth chart, and he’s waited for this moment. Motivation won’t be an issue, and if Chuba Hubbard returns, Carolina has the one-two punch to attack a Dallas defense that’s quietly dead last against the pass and middle-of-the-pack against the run. That’s a bad combination against a ball-control team.

 

The Cowboys are walking into a trap: cross-country travel, an early start, heavy humidity, and a physical home team that wants to slow everything down. The Panthers are healthier, motivated, and catching points in their own building. Recommendation: Carolina +3

 

L.A. RAMS -7½ over Baltimore

M&T Bank Stadium – Baltimore, MD

1:00 PM ET. Baltimore’s been exposed. The Ravens have dropped three straight, their defense is gassed, and their offense has fallen off a cliff. Lamar Jackson’s hamstring injury isn’t just a storyline — it’s the season’s tipping point. Without him, this is a team without rhythm, identity, or punch. Baltimore was booed off its home field last week after getting humiliated 44–10 by Houston, and the players admitted it. Rashod Bateman said, “We deserve all the criticism,” and he’s right. This group looks lost.

 

Now they get a rested, focused, veteran Rams team coming off extra prep and a painful overtime loss to San Francisco. Sean McVay’s teams rarely drop two straight, and when given added rest, they’re one of the league’s most efficient operations. That’s bad news for a Ravens squad that can’t stop the bleeding.

 

Matthew Stafford, at 37, is quietly playing at an elite level again. He leads the league in passing yards, has a 107.3 QB rating, and has thrown 11 touchdowns to just two picks. He’s doing it behind a line that’s given him time and with weapons who fit perfectly — Puka Nacua stretching the field, Davante Adams commanding coverage, and Kyren Williams keeping defenses honest with 368 rushing yards and four TDs. The Rams have been in every game they’ve played, and they’re built to bury wounded opponents.

 

Baltimore’s supposed home-field edge doesn’t carry weight when the stands turn restless and the quarterback is on the sideline. If Lamar can’t go, it’s Cooper Rush time again — yes, that Cooper Rush — who just threw three picks in a game where the Ravens scored a single touchdown. It’s not hard to see how this gets ugly quickly. Derrick Henry has been bottled up for a month, averaging just over two yards per carry in his last three games. Baltimore can’t block, can’t stretch the field, and can’t sustain drives.

 

There’s also a false market narrative forming: “home dogs of +7 or more cover 77% early in the season.” That’s the type of stat that looks sharp but ignores context. Those trends apply to teams with life — not one that’s circling the drain. The number is this high because the gap between these clubs has become a canyon. Recommendation: L.A. RAMS -7½

 

Cleveland +5½ over Pittsburgh

1:00 PM EST. Let’s break this down. The Steelers are 3-1. They’re NFL royalty — a blue blood program with Aaron Rodgers under center and that classic “Steel Curtain” aura. They’re coming off a bye week, rested, healthy, and polished. Across the field? The Browns, the NFL’s Charlie Brown. Every time they line up to kick the football, Lucy (the league, the media, or fate itself) pulls it away and sends them spinning through the air. They just got back from London, they’re starting a rookie quarterback, and they traded Joe Flacco to Cincinnati because apparently Cleveland’s coaching staff saw all they needed to see from Dillon Gabriel in one jet-lagged start overseas. On paper, this looks like a very short price, which is exactly what the oddsmakers want you to think.

 

Pittsburgh’s coming off a bye, Cleveland’s flying in from Europe after another sick loss and the line opened at Steelers -5. Five points! Not a touchdown, not six and a hook, just five. If the Steelers are this juggernaut, and the Browns are exhausted, overmatched, and led by a rookie, why aren’t they laying seven or more? It’s because Vegas is begging you on their knees to bet the Steelers. They’re dangling the black-and-gold flag in front of you like Lucy holding the football — “Go ahead, kick it, we promise this time it’s safe.” Charlie Brown is all set to kick the proverbial football again only this time. Oddsmakers fully expect Chuck to connect. 

 

Dillon Gabriel was solid in his debut, going 19-for-33 with two touchdowns and rookie running back Quinshon Judkins rumbled for 110 yards while tight end Harold Fannin Jr. hauled in a score. The Browns are young, fearless, and unscarred by decades of emotional trauma their fanbase has suffered. They’re not supposed to win this game, which makes them incredibly dangerous. The Steelers’ offense, meanwhile, has been about as electric as a rotary phone. Their defense will get its hits, sure, but the Browns’ energy and unpredictability are real.

 

Charlie Brown always lands on his back. He always gets embarrassed, dusts himself off, and lines up again but one of these days, he’s going to connect and Lucy’s going to be the one staring in disbelief. This is that moment for Cleveland. The setup is too perfect, the trap too obvious, the “Steelers off a bye” narrative too sweet. Pittsburgh is the sucker side here. Take the points, take the pain, and trust that one day, the football stays put. Recommendation: Cleveland +5½

 

L.A. Chargers -4 over Miami

1:00 PM ET. This is a great setup for the Chargers to get right and a terrible one for Miami to stop the bleeding. These two teams may have been linked forever by the 2020 draft, but right now they’re worlds apart in identity, discipline, and direction.

 

Miami blew a 17-0 lead last week to Carolina and has now lost four of five. That’s not a blip—it’s a team unraveling. They can’t run (19 rushing yards last week), they can’t stop the run (allowed 206 on the ground), and their injury list reads like a preseason depth chart. Tyreek Hill is done for the year, Tua’s dealing with hip and thumb issues, and the defense can’t get off the field. There’s no balance, no rhythm, and no sign that Mike McDaniel has an answer.

 

Meanwhile, Los Angeles just ran into two brick walls in a row and got smacked in the mouth. That’s fine—it happens. What matters is that this is a Harbaugh team that doesn’t stay down long. The penalties, the protection issues, the drive-killing mistakes—they’re all fixable. What isn’t fixable is soft, and Miami is soft. The Chargers rank top five in yards per drive, Herbert’s still completing 70% of his passes despite chaos around him, and Harbaugh’s 13-5 against the spread as a favorite with Herbert under center. That’s not luck—that’s structure.

 

Even with the backfield banged up, the Chargers’ offensive design is built around quick reads, misdirection, and high-efficiency passing. Herbert will be fine here. Miami’s secondary is a mess, its linebackers can’t cover, and its front seven gets bullied when asked to defend north-south football.

 

Tua will always give you flash, but right now, the Dolphins are running on fumes. They’ve lost their identity as a track team, and without Hill, they’re forced to play between the numbers—something they’ve never been comfortable doing.

 

The Chargers might not have the shine of September anymore, but this number is short because of a perception dip, not reality. Harbaugh’s team is physical, angry, and much better equipped for a bounce-back than Miami is to stop the slide. Recommendation: L.A. Chargers -4

 

New England -3½ over New Orleans

1:00 PM ET. The Saints beat the Giants, a win that looks better today than it did last Sunday after the G-Men knocked off the Eagles on TNF. Now the market’s pretending that means something. It doesn’t. That was New York’s third road game in four weeks and a mercy win for a Saints team that had been dead in the water for a month.

 

New England, meanwhile, has quietly started to figure it out. The Patriots didn’t just beat Buffalo last week—they outplayed them. That was a statement road win over an undefeated division rival, and it came with Mike Vrabel’s fingerprints all over it. The Pats were organized, physical, disciplined, and committed to the game plan. That’s not luck. That’s coaching.

 

Drake Maye has been remarkably steady for a rookie—sixth in the league in passer rating despite getting almost nothing from the run game. Vrabel knows it. He’s not asking Maye to win games alone, but to manage them smartly while the defense does the heavy lifting. That’s exactly how New England is built to win right now.

 

New Orleans isn’t built for much of anything. Spencer Rattler finally got his first career win, and he looked fine doing it, but the Saints are still bottom-five in red-zone scoring, still can’t sustain drives, and still can’t punch it in when it matters. Moore’s offense looks like a college spread system without the athletes to run it. You can dink and dunk all day, but at some point, you have to move the sticks against a real defense—and the Patriots have one.

 

The Saints’ 34-0 win in Foxboro last year doesn’t mean a thing here. This is a completely different New England team under Vrabel—faster, meaner, and buying in. The Patriots are 2-0 on the road, and they’ve won back-to-back games because they’re starting to play with identity and edge. The same cannot be said for a Saints team that got its one feel-good moment of the season last week and now faces a massive step up in class. Recommendation: New England -3½

 

Las Vegas -4½ over Tennessee

4:05 PM EST. Tennessee is 1–4 straight up and 2–3 against the number, and last week’s road “win” in Arizona was pure smoke and mirrors. If Cardinals running back Emari Demercado doesn’t drop the ball on the goal line, the Titans are down three touchdowns and we’re talking about how Brian Callahan might not make it to Halloween. Instead, Tennessee backers are busy patting themselves on the back for cashing a ticket that had no business getting there. One lucky break doesn’t change who this team is, a thin roster, an uninspiring scheme, and a quarterback who still looks like he’s trying to find his dorm room.

 

Enter Cam Ward, the latest face in the revolving door of Titans quarterbacks. Ward looks like the guy who showed up at training camp because his Uber dropped him off at the wrong stadium. He’s athletic, sure, but every throw looks like a coin flip between a highlight and a hospital ball. Last week, Ward had more scrambles than completions that mattered, and somehow the scoreboard made him look heroic. That’s the magic of playing the Arizona Cardinals — everyone gets a participation ribbon.

 

Meanwhile, the Raiders haven’t fooled anyone. They’re coming off a humiliating loss, thus, their stock has hit rock bottom. They’ve dropped four straight and failed to cover in all of them. Their offense has been a turnover magnet and their defense has been gassed since Labor Day but when a 1–4 team that can’t get out of its own way is laying 4½ points, you can bet the line isn’t about who’s better, it’s about who the public will overrate next. Vegas doesn’t hand out “free” money, and the Titans’ miracle win last week just inflated a balloon that’s ready to pop.

 

Pete Carroll might be the most optimistic motherf***er on the planet. The man could be down 28-3, and he’s still chewing his gum like he’s in a Juicy Fruit commercial, clapping his hands in white pants that could guide ships into port. He’ll strut into practice this week with that bounce in his step, talking about “great energy” and “building momentum” after losing by four touchdowns. That’s just Pete — eternally upbeat, even when his team looks like it needs a priest instead of a playbook.

 

You think we like laying points with the Raiders? We don’t. Nobody does but we like betting against teams built on illusion even less. Tennessee’s win was a fluke, their quarterback is a human wild card, and their confidence is misplaced. The Raiders are bad, but the Titans are worse and the market hasn’t caught up yet. Recommendation: Raiders -4½

 

Cincinnati +15 over Green Bay

4:25 PM ET. There are blowouts, and then there are overreactions. This is the latter. The Packers are a fine football team with a fresh coat of paint, a bye week to rest, and a head coach who can scheme it up. What they are not is the type of team that should be spotting two touchdowns and a hook to anyone in this league, let alone a Bengals team that still has NFL talent across the board.

 

Joe Flacco steps in, and while the memes will write themselves, the veteran isn’t some washed-up arm dragged off a couch. He was Comeback Player of the Year not even two seasons ago. The man can still read a defense, throw a deep out, and manage a game. He’s also facing a Packers defense that looked gassed before the bye—blown coverages, missed tackles, and 436 yards allowed to Dallas before stumbling into overtime. Rest helps, sure, but this isn’t the ‘85 Bears we’re talking about.

 

Meanwhile, Zac Taylor’s Bengals have been the league’s punching bag for three weeks running, and that’s exactly why we’re here. The market has completely written them off. Nobody wants them. You think the locker room doesn’t know that? Cincinnati has been flat-out embarrassed, and teams that have been dragged through the mud for three straight weeks often show up with a little venom in their veins. That’s especially true when a veteran QB like Flacco walks in—someone who’s seen everything, doesn’t panic, and instantly commands a room.

 

Green Bay’s offense is efficient but hardly explosive. Jordan Love has looked sharp in stretches, but the Packers still lean on a patchwork offensive line and a running game that’s averaging just 3.3 yards a carry. Now they’re supposed to win by more than two touchdowns? They couldn’t even close out Cleveland a few weeks ago, or Dallas for that matter.

 

This is a classic “too many points” game. The Bengals are a wreck, yes, but NFL teams rarely stay down forever. Flacco gives them a baseline of competence, and that’s all it takes to hang inside this inflated number. Recommendation: Cincinnati +15

 

San Francisco +3 over Tampa Bay

4:25 PM ET. San Francisco is a team defined by grit and depth, not glamour. The 49ers enter this one banged up at the quarterback position, with Brock Purdy sidelined yet again and Mac Jones nursing both knee and oblique injuries. On paper, that screams “lay the points to Tampa Bay,” especially with the Buccaneers riding high off a thrilling 38-35 win over Seattle. Baker Mayfield threw for 379 yards and two touchdowns in that game, looking every bit like an MVP candidate and pairing seamlessly with rookie star Emeka Egbuka.

 

That’s the story the market is buying. The sharp money sees something different. San Francisco has been quietly dominant on the road, now 3-0 with three close wins under their belt. Kyle Shanahan’s offense is adaptable and patient; Kendrick Bourne carved up the Rams last week for 142 yards with Jones playing through pain. That chemistry is real, and it matters when matchups are tight. The 49ers can win in multiple ways—control the clock with the run, take smart shots downfield, and let a disciplined defense keep Tampa Bay in check.

 

Yes, the Bucs’ passing attack is prolific, especially without Mike Evans and Chris Godwin in action. But San Francisco’s defense has a blueprint for this offense, holding Tampa Bay to 215 total yards in their last meeting without Evans and Godwin. The overreaction from the market is palpable—the public is focused on Mayfield’s heroics, not the 49ers’ resilience. The last four meetings have gone San Francisco’s way, with the Bucs covering only twice. These are tight contests, and points in this spread are firmly on the table.

 

The 49ers are a team built for adversity. Injuries, travel, and tough matchups don’t flinch them—they find ways to win. Meanwhile, Tampa Bay’s four victories have been by a combined nine points, signaling vulnerability despite the stats. Recommendation: San Francisco +3

 

Kansas City -2½ over Detroit

Arrowhead Stadium – Kansas City, MO

8:20 PM ET. This is the first meeting between the Chiefs and Lions since Detroit famously crashed the Arrowhead party in Week 1 of 2023. Since then, the Lions have been a machine against the spread, going 51-21-1 (71%) in regular-season games dating back to 2021. They’ve also won-and-covered each of their last four meetings, with three of those four games flying over the total. Historically, fading a team off a big win is a profitable angle, but not with Dan Campbell’s crew — the Lions are 21-5 ATS following a victory of seven points or more.

 

That said, this isn’t the same Kansas City team that hoarded confidence on the back of a Super Bowl. The Chiefs entered the season 2-3, and Monday night’s 31-28 loss to Jacksonville exposed cracks across the board. Chris Jones was roasted after failing to chase down Trevor Lawrence on a key scramble, and Kansas City’s defense has looked vulnerable when it matters most. The lesson from last week: they can still get exposed.

 

Offensively, though, Patrick Mahomes and company are in a class of their own. The key here is their ability to absorb pressure and adjust against elite defenses. Detroit’s hot streak — 161 points over four wins, Jared Goff leading the league with 12 TD passes — is impressive, but the Chiefs have faced similar high-octane attacks before and prevailed. History also offers perspective: Detroit’s last trip to Arrowhead in 2023 ended with a 21-20 win, but that was against a rested, defending Super Bowl team. Kansas City at home in primetime is a different animal. Recommendation: Kansas City -2½

 

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