Pinnacle    -2½ -105     BET365  -2½ -105    Sportsinteraction  -2½ -105   888port  -2½ -105

Posted at 8:00 AM ET. Odds are subject to change

Houston -2½ over Denver

1:00 PM ET. Denver’s defense has been the story all year — top-five in points allowed, tight coverage, and outstanding gap discipline. That identity, however, hinges heavily on Surtain’s ability to erase half the field. Without him, the Broncos lose the freedom to roll coverage and disguise looks. Opposing QBs suddenly have both sides of the field to work with, and that’s not something this unit has faced all season.

Enter C.J. Stroud, who just shredded the 49ers’ defense for 318 yards on 77% completions without his top two wideouts. Stroud looked composed, confident, and back in rhythm. If Nico Collins and Christian Kirk are even close to healthy, Houston’s offense instantly upgrades. The matchup becomes even more favorable with Denver missing its All-Pro corner and possibly key depth pieces in the secondary.

Defensively, Houston remains a nightmare to play against. They lead the league in fewest points and yards per drive allowed, and they force offenses to play mistake-free football for four quarters — something Denver hasn’t proven capable of doing consistently. The Texans’ front, led by Will Anderson and Danielle Hunter, should collapse the pocket on Russell Wilson and take away Denver’s comfort zone in the short passing game.

This is where context matters. The market is still giving Denver credit for their win streak and labeling this as a toss-up. It’s not. Without Surtain, the Broncos’ defensive structure is compromised. On the other side, Houston’s balance, coaching, and defensive speed create the perfect setup to capitalize.

Houston is familiar with these small-margin games, and they’ve covered four of their last five at home in this exact price range. They’re the better team on both lines of scrimmage and should control tempo from start to finish.

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