Pinnacle    +155     BET365  +155    Sportsinteraction  +155   888port  +155

Posted at 8:00 AM ET. Odds are subject to change

 Pittsburgh +155 over Indianapolis

1:00 PM ET. What exactly is this number telling us? The Colts have been crushing teams for a month, sit at 7-1, and are being talked about as the next big thing. Yet the market is only asking them to spot three points against a .500 Pittsburgh team that just coughed up back-to-back losses. That doesn’t line up. When a line doesn’t make sense, it’s because the market is begging you to take the bait. Indianapolis is that bait.

Let’s strip away the shine. The Colts have been on cruise control against one of the softest schedules in football. Their last five opponents? The Raiders, Cardinals, Titans (twice), and Dolphins. That’s not a gauntlet — that’s preseason competition. Their only test outside of a dome came back in Week 2, and it didn’t go well. Meanwhile, they’re still priced like a top-five team despite that schedule inflation.

Jonathan Taylor’s video-game numbers have masked the real issue: the Colts haven’t had to play from behind or deal with crowd noise in weeks. Pittsburgh will change that. Mike Tomlin’s crew is always most dangerous when everyone’s counting them out. The Steelers are 10-5 ATS as a home dog or small favorite over the past three years, and they’ve made a habit of dragging better teams into the mud and forcing them to earn every inch.

Yes, the Steelers blew a two-score lead against Green Bay last week, but they moved the ball and got production from an offense that had been dormant. Aaron Rodgers hasn’t played his best football yet, but he doesn’t have to be elite for Pittsburgh to grind out a home win. The defense — even missing a few pieces — still features T.J. Watt and Cam Heyward, two guys who can flip a drive, a quarter, or a game with one play.

Indianapolis has been the bully beating up on the weak kids. Now they walk into a fistfight on grass, outdoors, in Pittsburgh, against a team desperate to right the ship and backed by one of the sharpest coaches in the league. The number says it all — this isn’t a gift, it’s a trap.

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