Pinnacle  +6 -110 BET365   +6 -110  Sportsinteraction   +6 -110  888Sport  +6 -110

Posted at 9:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

San Francisco +6 over Philadelphia

4:30 PM ET. The market is selling fear. Jalen Hurts is 5-0 at home in the playoffs, the Eagles wear the defending-champion crown, and the public remembers a 31-7 NFC title game two years ago when Brock Purdy’s elbow snapped before the first quarter was even over. That memory is doing all the heavy lifting in this number. Strip it away and this is not a touchdown-spread matchup between two wild-card teams. San Francisco won six straight before a meaningless Week 18 face-plant, went 7-2 on the road, and already walked into this building last season and left with a 42-19 blowout. The books hung +6 anyway because they know casual money loves home-playoff favorites.

Philadelphia’s defense looks shiny on paper with Fangio, Mitchell, DeJean and Carter, yet this unit still has to deal with McCaffrey, Deebo, Aiyuk and Purdy operating inside one of the most efficient systems in football. Shanahan has already shown he can torch this stadium when his quarterback stays upright. Meanwhile the Eagles spent Week 18 resting half the lineup and hoping rust does not show up at the worst possible time. San Francisco did the opposite, playing for the No. 1 seed and keeping its foot on the gas, which matters far more than a fake “momentum” loss.

This line is built on reputation, not reality. The Eagles are being priced like an unbeatable home machine, while the 49ers are being treated like some shaky road dog instead of a 12-win team with elite balance on both sides of the ball. When a game between two true heavyweights is being offered at a full six points, the value screams. Take the points, trust the roster that can match Philadelphia punch for punch, and let the market’s nostalgia do the rest.

Take advantage of BET365's early NFL payout offer

For straight bets, if the team you back to win goes 17 Points ahead at any stage during the game, BET365 will pay out your bet in full regardless of whether the opposition comes back to win the game.

For parlays and Same Game Parlays, if a team you have backed goes 17 Points ahead, this selection will be marked as won within My Bets, with the remaining selections left to run.

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Pinnacle  -3.5 -105 BET365   -3.5 -105  Sportsinteraction   -3.5 -105  888Sport  -3.5 -105

Posted at 9:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

New England -3.5 over LA Chargers

8:30 PM ET. The market is trying to sell this game as “quarterbacks equal, so take the points.” That story ignores the part that actually decides playoff games: who controls the line of scrimmage. Justin Herbert has been sacked 54 times, the Chargers have used a league-leading 32 offensive line combinations, and they come into Foxborough still duct-taping the edges together. That is not a small problem when you are walking into a Vrabel defense that lives to make quarterbacks miserable. Drake Maye has taken his share of hits, yet New England still finished top-three in offense and second in scoring because this attack stays on schedule and does not beat itself.

Los Angeles looks respectable on paper, yet that profile is quietly hollow. Twelfth in offense, 20th in scoring, and built on a quarterback who has been running for his life all season. Meanwhile New England sits second in points, third in yardage, and top-five in scoring defense. That is not noise. That is a profile of a team that can dictate terms. The Chargers need Herbert to be heroic just to stay afloat, while the Patriots can win this game with efficiency, field position and pressure.

Oddsmakers are dangling a short number to keep Charger money flowing because Herbert’s name still carries weight. This is a classic playoff misprice. One team is complete, balanced and at home. The other is limping into January behind a broken offensive line. New England does not need fireworks here. It needs to grind, get to Herbert, and let Maye turn this into a two-score game. Lay the 3.5 and let the trenches do the talking.

Take advantage of BET365's early NFL payout offer

For straight bets, if the team you back to win goes 17 Points ahead at any stage during the game, BET365 will pay out your bet in full regardless of whether the opposition comes back to win the game.

For parlays and Same Game Parlays, if a team you have backed goes 17 Points ahead, this selection will be marked as won within My Bets, with the remaining selections left to run.

Here is a wager we were paid out early on that would eventually lose. 

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Pinnacle  +105 BET365   +105  Sportsinteraction   +105  888Sport   +105

Posted at 9:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

Buffalo +105 over Jacksonville

1:00 PM ET. The public sees an eight-game Jacksonville heater and a Bills team that lost its division. The market sees something else. If the Jaguars were truly this juggernaut everyone is pretending they are, they would not be sitting at home as a pick’em against Josh Allen. Jacksonville has been great for two months, no question. They also went from turnover machine to turnover vacuum overnight, which is rarely sustainable in January. Interceptions, short fields and bounces drove a big chunk of that late-season surge, and those are the first things that dry up in the postseason.

Trevor Lawrence’s numbers over the final six games are eye-popping, but this is also the first time he is carrying expectations into the playoffs instead of sneaking up on people. Buffalo knows exactly who he is now, and Sean McDermott’s defenses have always been at their best when they can key on a single quarterback and force him to be perfect. Meanwhile Josh Allen is built for this stage. His playoff numbers are better than his regular-season numbers, he’s healthy again, and Kansas City is finally out of his way. That matters more than any road-game narrative.

Jacksonville’s win streak has masked how thin the margin really is. Buffalo has played nothing but playoff-level football for two months just to get here. The Bills are being priced like a flawed road team instead of an elite quarterback with a defense that has already seen this movie. The wrong team is favored, so we take the even money and back the side with the superstar who can blow the doors off in a single quarter.

Take advantage of BET365's early NFL payout offer

For straight bets, if the team you back to win goes 17 Points ahead at any stage during the game, BET365 will pay out your bet in full regardless of whether the opposition comes back to win the game.

For parlays and Same Game Parlays, if a team you have backed goes 17 Points ahead, this selection will be marked as won within My Bets, with the remaining selections left to run.

Here is a wager we were paid out early on that would eventually lose. 

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