Pinnacle    +110     BET365  +110    Sportsinteraction  +110   888port  +110

Posted at 8:00 AM ET. Odds are subject to change

Buffalo +110 over Kansas City

4:25 PM ET. This will be Buffalo’s first home game in nearly a month, and Orchard Park remains one of the most hostile environments in the league. Since the start of last season, the over is 10-3-2 in Bills home games, largely because that offense tends to open up at home and the defense feeds off the energy. That matters here — especially against a Chiefs team that’s been grinding through a brutal stretch of scheduling. Kansas City is playing its ninth straight week without a bye and comes in on a short week after Monday night.

Buffalo, meanwhile, is rested and coming off a confidence-building win where they dominated Carolina on both sides of the ball. James Cook exploded for 216 yards and two scores while the Bills’ defense limited the Panthers to just 4.1 yards per play. That’s the kind of performance that re-establishes rhythm and belief — both of which had been fading earlier in the season.

There’s no question Kansas City is the better roster top-to-bottom. They’ve gone 5-1 straight-up and against the spread since starting 0-2, and they still have the best QB on the planet. Yet football betting isn’t about picking the better team — it’s about picking the better situation.

The Chiefs are traveling on short rest, at the tail end of a long, uninterrupted run of games, into one of the league’s loudest venues against a team that’s been waiting three weeks to play in front of its fans again. That’s a massive energy gap. There’s a difference between backing a team and backing a situation. This situation favors Buffalo in every way that matters.

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