Posted Friday at 4:00pm EST and odds are subject to change.

NFL Week: 9

What you see below is our early leans. Many of the selections below will stay the same and some will be moved into official plays with wagers on Sunday. However, there is also the possibility that we see, read or get a sense that something is not right with one of our selections and change our pick. There are several different criteria we use to grade a game and make it an official play and a lot of things can happen or change between Friday and Sunday. We’ll have all write-ups (except Monday Night Football) posted on Friday but our actual wagers won’t be posted until Sunday morning between 10 AM and 12:00 PM EST

Sunday, November 2

NFL Week 9

 

Atlanta +5½ over New England

Gillette Stadium – Foxborough, MA

1:00 PM ET. There isn’t a logical reason for this line to be so inflated other than perception. The Patriots have won five straight, they’re sitting at 6-2, and the Drake Maye hype train is now barreling downhill without brakes. New England is playing solid football, sure, but oddsmakers have gone too far in making them a near-touchdown favorite against a team that still has weapons, pride, and a sense of urgency.

 

The Falcons were embarrassed in back-to-back weeks by San Francisco and Miami — two of the worst defenses in football right now — and that kind of public humiliation tends to drive market overreaction. You’ll hear all week about Atlanta’s 10 points per game over the last two outings, or how their running game vanished into thin air. All true, but none of it justifies this number. Those results are already baked into the line, and then some.

 

Atlanta’s effort level has been the issue, not talent. Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier were both stuffed by Miami’s front, but that came in a game where the Falcons were out of rhythm from the first snap. The injuries certainly haven’t helped either. Michael Penix Jr. was out last week with a bone bruise, Drake London was sidelined with a hip issue, and the offensive line was missing key pieces. Those absences have painted an exaggerated picture of how bad this team really is. Both Penix and London are trending up and are expected to play here, which makes this version of Atlanta significantly more dangerous than the one we saw against Miami.

 

If you strip away the narratives and just look at the number, the value is crystal clear. We’re getting more than a field goal with a team coming off two ugly losses that the market has completely written off. Atlanta doesn’t need to win to cash; they just need to show up. Given the current state of their season — desperate, wounded, and humiliated — this is the spot where effort and regression collide. Recommendation: Atlanta +5½

 

Carolina +13½ over Green Bay

 

1:00 PM ET. The Packers have won three straight, they’re healthy, they’re at home, and the market is pricing them like they’re a juggernaut. They’re not. This is still one of the slowest-paced, most conservative offenses in football being asked to spot nearly two touchdowns. That’s rich.

 

Carolina’s stock couldn’t be lower after getting buried by Buffalo last week. That 40–9 scoreline looks ugly, but it’s also misleading. The Panthers were missing half their offensive line, their starting quarterback, and a handful of defensive starters. It was a game that snowballed early and got away late. Now they walk into Lambeau as a forgotten, overmatched underdog — the exact profile that breeds value.

 

The public sees Bryce Young’s name on the injury report and sprints to the window to lay the wood with Green Bay. The market moves accordingly. Yet even with all their supposed dominance, the Packers have failed to cover the number in this range before — just ask anyone who backed them as double-digit chalk against Cincinnati earlier this year. They play slow, they rely on defense, and they leave the backdoor wide open for any team that can string together a couple of drives in garbage time.

 

The Panthers are a mess on paper, no question. Their offensive line is a triage unit and their defense is patchwork. However, they’re still fighting under Dave Canales, and when Young plays, they show flashes of competence. Carolina’s ground game, which ranks top five in the league, can shorten this one and chew clock. The Packers’ pass rush is elite, but that’s mitigated when you can stay on schedule and run the football. If the Panthers avoid early turnovers, they can hang around long enough to cover this monster number. Recommendation: Carolina +13½ 

 

Minnesota +9½ over Detroit

 

1:00 PM ET. We’re not buying what the market is selling here. Detroit has covered nine straight against Minnesota, they’re fresh off a bye, and they’ve been steamrolling opponents at home. So why is this number “only” 9½? Because it’s inflated — plain and simple.

 

Detroit has been a model of consistency under Dan Campbell, but this team’s offensive efficiency has cooled. The Lions have been living off turnover luck and red-zone conversions that simply don’t hold forever. Their defense still brings pressure, but they’ve been giving up explosive plays through the air, and they’ve shown cracks against teams that can stretch them vertically. Minnesota can do exactly that.

 

The narrative is all Detroit — their dominance in the division, Aidan Hutchinson’s new mega deal, and Goff’s precision throwing. Meanwhile, the Vikings are quietly getting healthier. J.J. McCarthy is back under center and has had extended rest to settle in, while Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison are still elite separators who can exploit man coverage. If McCarthy protects the football, Minnesota has enough weapons to keep this one competitive.

 

The Lions are also one of the slowest-paced, most methodical teams in the NFL. They love to grind out drives and lean on their front seven. That’s great for winning games, not so great for covering double-digit spreads. Detroit can win comfortably and still leave the backdoor wide open.

 

Minnesota’s last five games have gone over the total — that’s not an accident. The Vikings can score in spurts, and McCarthy gives them a spark that the market hasn’t priced in yet. This is an inflated line based on reputation, not reality.

 

We’ll take the inflated points with a divisional rival that’s rested, motivated, and better equipped than the market is giving them credit for. Recommendation: Minnesota +9½

   

New Orleans +14 over L.A. Rams

 

4:05 PM ET. There’s a fine line between dominance and market inflation, and the Rams are standing right on it. L.A. has become a darling for bettors and models alike, shutting down Baltimore and Jacksonville on consecutive trips before taking a week off. Now they return home to face a Saints team that nobody wants any part of — which is precisely why we do.

 

New Orleans is 1-7 and sitting at the bottom of everyone’s power ratings, and yet, despite all the stink, they’re being offered a full two touchdowns against a team that has been playing over its head for a month. That’s a bridge too far.

 

The Rams’ defensive numbers are elite — second in EPA per play allowed, fifth in passing success rate — but much of that comes from a favorable turnover split and an unsustainable red-zone stop rate. They’ve been brilliant situationally, but that doesn’t always travel week-to-week, especially when you’re asked to cover a massive number after a bye. Football doesn’t work that cleanly.

 

The Saints can’t move the ball, that’s no secret. They haven’t scored more than 20 points in five of their last six and needed a defensive touchdown to get there in the one game they did. However, their defense remains quietly top-10 against the run and physical enough to muddy up tempo-based teams like L.A. This isn’t a finesse dome defense. They’ll line up, hit, and drag the Rams into the mud if possible.

 

If this turns into a slow-paced, possession-heavy grind — which the Saints are going to force — then +14 suddenly looks massive. You don’t need them to win, you just need them to hang around, and ugly teams like this tend to do exactly that when everyone else has written them off.

 

There’s also noise out of L.A. that Kellen Moore may be considering a change from Spencer Rattler to rookie Tyler Shough. That’s not exactly stability, and if Moore decides mid-game that he’s seen enough, this big number could evaporate in a hurry. Recommendation: New Orleans +14