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Posted at 10:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

Colorado +9½ -110 over Baylor

12:00 PM EST. Colorado could not have looked much worse last week. The Buffaloes went to Northwestern, apparently had a little fun mocking the Wildcats' temporary stadium, and then spent the next three hours getting their asses handed to them, 41-7. Now they stay on the road and face a Baylor team expecting to get starting quarterback DJ Lagway back. Put those two things together and it's not difficult to understand why nobody will be lining up to take Colorado. That's also how we arrive at Colorado +9½, and we're willing to buy when the Buffaloes' stock couldn't possibly be much lower.

There is no defending what Colorado has done offensively against FBS competition. The Buffaloes have scored on only three of 22 possessions and have turned it over four times. However, one horrific Saturday doesn't automatically make Baylor worthy of this price. The Bears are also 2-1 with one victory coming against Prairie View A&M, while last week's 36-19 win over Louisiana Tech came with backup Nate Bennett running the offense. Lagway is expected back after missing two games with an ankle injury, but "expected back" and "100% healthy" aren't necessarily the same thing.

Baylor's opening loss at Auburn doesn't look quite as impressive after Auburn was subsequently handled at home by Florida, either. The Bears have been solid defensively, but this still isn't a team we're anxious to price as if it has suddenly separated itself dramatically from Colorado. And while the Buffaloes have been an easy target after last week's embarrassment, they did beat Baylor 38-31 when these teams met in 2024. We're not suggesting that result predicts this one, but there's enough familiarity here that Colorado shouldn't be walking into an entirely foreign matchup.

This number looks like punishment for what everybody just watched. Colorado was humiliated on national television, Baylor won comfortably and its starting quarterback is apparently returning. Perfect. That's exactly when a team like Colorado becomes interesting. The Buffaloes don't have to suddenly become good, and they certainly don't have to erase everything that's gone wrong offensively. They merely have to be substantially better than last week's disaster. Nine and a half points is an enormous cushion in a matchup involving a Baylor team that hasn't earned this kind of respect from us.

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