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Posted at 10:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

Mackay Stadium, Reno, NV

Stream: FS1

Nevada +5½ -110 over Air Force 

10:30 PM EST. Nevada hasn't exactly given anyone a reason to rush to the window. The Wolf Pack followed an encouraging opening win over Western Kentucky with losses to Montana State and Middle Tennessee, and last week's 27-20 defeat was particularly frustrating. Nevada coughed up the football twice deep in its own territory, had a punt-return touchdown wiped away and threw an interception inside the Middle Tennessee 15. That's precisely the type of performance that depresses a team's market value, and now the Wolf Pack return home catching 5½ points against an Air Force team that hasn't done enough to warrant this kind of respect on the road.

There is no mystery regarding what Air Force wants to do. Liam Szarka operates the option extremely well, the Falcons are averaging 319 rushing yards per game, and they'll happily turn this into a possession-by-possession grinder. That style is intimidating when Air Force is operating flawlessly, but it also reduces possessions and makes separation more difficult. Nevada has also seen this offense plenty. These teams met at Mackay Stadium two years ago and again last season, when Nevada went to Colorado Springs and lost by only three, 22-19. Familiarity matters against an offense designed to create confusion.

The matchup gets more interesting when Nevada has the football. Air Force's secondary was one of the country's weakest units in pass efficiency last season, while its defensive front entered this year with very little experience. Nevada quarterback Carter Jones returned last week after missing time with a shoulder injury, and this looks like a spot where the Wolf Pack can be more aggressive throwing the football. Nevada also gets an important piece back up front with left guard Zach Cochnauer expected to return. If the Wolf Pack simply eliminate the giveaways that destroyed them last week, this offense is capable of having considerably more success than its recent results suggest.

Air Force is rested and Nevada is coming off consecutive losses, so we understand why the Falcons are attracting the attention. That's also why the number interests us. Nevada is home, has enough familiarity with the option to avoid being completely blindsided by it and owns the better matchup when attacking through the air. More importantly, Air Force's methodical style isn't ideally suited to creating margin. This has all the ingredients of a one-possession game deep into the fourth quarter, which makes 5½ points at Mackay Stadium extremely appealing.

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