Sportsinteraction

Posted at 10:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

Hornet Stadium, Sacramento, CA

Stream: ESPN+

Sacramento State +4½ -110 over UMass 

9:00 PM EST. If there were an award for September's biggest turnaround, UMass would have a strong case. The Minutemen are 3-0 after winning only three games all of last season, they've scored at least 36 points in every game, and quarterback William "Pop" Watson III has completed 75% of his passes with five touchdowns. UMass has also already sailed over its preseason win total of 2½. All of that is impressive. It's also exactly the sort of dramatic early-season transformation that attracts attention and changes perception quickly.

Sacramento State is sitting at the opposite end of the perception spectrum. The Hornets have been badly outclassed against FBS competition, and their 52-0 victory over Mississippi Valley State isn't masking much. However, there were at least some signs of life after falling behind North Dakota State last week. Jackson Sharman threw for 238 yards after taking over at quarterback, while the defense played considerably better after halftime. This is still a program finding its footing at the FBS level, but we're not being asked to declare Sacramento State the better team. We're being handed 4½ points at home against a UMass team making an extremely unusual cross-country trip.

The other consideration is how UMass plays. The Minutemen are heavily committed to the run and average only 54 offensive plays per game. That deliberate approach is excellent when protecting a lead, but fewer possessions can make it difficult for a road favorite to create separation. Sacramento State's defense also showed improvement in the second half against North Dakota State, and both offenses have had trouble finishing drives in the red zone. A game built around lengthy possessions, field position and field goals is precisely the type of environment in which points become increasingly valuable.

UMass may ultimately prove that its transformation is legitimate, but this is a very different assignment from beating Sacred Heart and Stonehill at home. The Minutemen are traveling roughly 3,000 miles for their first trip to California and doing so as a road favorite because three September victories have completely altered how they're viewed. Sacramento State has been ugly enough that almost nobody will want the Hornets, but that's reflected in the number. With the home field, the travel disadvantage working against UMass and a matchup that should limit possessions, we'll gladly take the 4½ points with Sacramento State.

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