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Posted at 10:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

Valley Children's Stadium, Fresno, CA

Stream: CW

Rice +13½ -105 over Fresno St 

10:00 PM EST. Somebody apparently opened the doors at the Fresno State betting window and forgot to close them. The Bulldogs opened around -10½ and have been hammered all the way to -13½, a significant move through some important numbers. We understand the attraction. Rice is 1-2, doesn't score much, runs an unconventional offense and now travels to Fresno. Meanwhile, the Bulldogs have won two straight after getting destroyed 39-0 at USC. Everything about this game screams Fresno State to the casual bettor. When everybody starts running toward the same window, however, we're usually interested in what's happening on the other side.

Rice was good to us last week in a 28-21 loss to Western Michigan, and the Owls played better than that final score suggests. A couple of explosive plays accounted for a large portion of Western Michigan's damage while Rice's defense held up reasonably well otherwise. The Owls also bring the type of offense that can be extremely irritating when you're laying a big number. Roughly 70% of their offense comes on the ground out of a shotgun option attack. Rice isn't interested in playing fast, trading touchdowns or giving Fresno State 14 possessions. The Owls want to chew clock, shorten the game and reduce the number of opportunities available to both teams.

We're also not ready to treat Fresno State like an offensive machine. The Bulldogs were shut out at USC and last week's 26-10 victory over San Jose State was 16-10 late before Fresno scored 10 fourth-quarter points. Their offense has converted only about 31% of its third downs, and the offensive line has already been thinned by injuries. That's not exactly the profile we're anxious to lay nearly two touchdowns with. Fresno's defense has been excellent, but a low-possession game works both ways. If Rice can force the Bulldogs to earn their points one drive at a time, creating a 14-point margin becomes considerably more difficult.

Maybe all that Fresno State money is right. Maybe the Bulldogs roll. But nothing we've found on the Rice injury front explains why this number needed to move three full points, and we're certainly not interested in joining the parade after the price has been driven from 10½ to 13½. We The Owls' style gives them a legitimate chance to turn this into the slow, ugly, possession-starved game that big favorites hate. Fresno State can have the money. We'll take the points.

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