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Posted at 10:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

San Diego St. +125 over Toledo

12:00 PM EST. San Diego State might be one of the least appealing teams on Saturday's board, which is precisely why +125 has our attention. The Aztecs have followed a 53-20 opening win over Portland State with consecutive losses to UCLA and James Madison, while quarterback Jayden Denegal has completed just 54% of his passes and has four touchdowns against four interceptions. Now they're traveling halfway across the country for an early start against a Toledo team coming off one of the wildest victories of the young season. Good luck finding anybody rushing to the window to bet SDSU.

But let's look at what Toledo just did before automatically upgrading the Rockets. They were trailing Temple 42-28 with less than seven minutes remaining and needed two touchdowns in the final 65 seconds, an onside-kick recovery and overtime to escape 49-48. It was a spectacular comeback, but spectacular doesn't necessarily mean impressive. Toledo allowed 48 points at home and needed a sequence of events that isn't going to be repeated very often. That's the type of dramatic victory that can do wonders for a team's market perception without necessarily making it any better.

San Diego State's passing game has been ugly, but the Aztecs don't have to beat Toledo through the air. They've already rushed for 573 yards at 4.6 yards per carry, and that's particularly relevant against a Rockets defense that has surrendered 544 yards on the ground. If SDSU can establish the run, it keeps Toledo's offense on the sideline, takes pressure off Denegal and prevents this from becoming the track meet the Rockets would prefer. The Aztecs' offense doesn't have to suddenly become explosive. It just has to play to the part of this matchup where Toledo has shown vulnerability

So we have two teams whose current perceptions couldn't be further apart. Toledo just produced an unforgettable comeback and returns home with everybody feeling pretty good. San Diego State has scored only 23 points over its past two games and now has to travel east with a quarterback nobody trusts. All of that is sitting right there in the price. We're not interested in paying a premium for Toledo's miraculous finish last week. At +125, we'll take the team nobody wants and call for the outright upset.

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