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Posted at 10:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

S.B. Ballard Stadium, Norfolk, VA

Stream: ESPN+

Old Dominion +6 -105 over James Madison

6:00 PM EST. James Madison has become one of those programs the market rarely needs convincing to support. Different coaches, different quarterbacks, different conferences—it hasn't seemed to matter. The Dukes just keep winning. They're unbeaten again, they're coming off an impressive 26-13 victory at San Diego State, and now they draw an Old Dominion team that just blew a double-digit lead at home against East Carolina. Throw in JMU's 63-27 destruction of the Monarchs last season and laying less than a touchdown probably looks pretty inviting. That's precisely what interests us about the other side.

]There is also some uncertainty underneath JMU's perfect record. Quarterback JC Evans has missed the past two games with a wrist injury and remains questionable after being limited in practice this week. The Dukes have survived because their defense has been outstanding, allowing Wagner and San Diego State only 16 combined points, but that's very different from having a fully functioning offense. If Evans isn't 100%—or doesn't play at all—asking JMU to create margin on the road becomes considerably more difficult.

Old Dominion's 1-2 record isn't particularly attractive, but the Monarchs haven't played as poorly as it suggests. Virginia Tech managed only 4.8 yards per play against this defense, with five lost fumbles turning that game into something much crazier than the underlying numbers. Last week's 20-17 loss to East Carolina was another frustrating result, but ODU led by double digits before getting shut out in the second half. This isn't a defense getting pushed all over the field, and that's important against a JMU offense that may again be operating without its starting quarterback.

Last year's 63-27 humiliation provides another reason nobody wants Old Dominion here, but we're not interested in paying for what happened a year ago. JMU's reputation is soaring while Old Dominion's stock is buried, and we're getting six points at home in a rivalry game. The market is charging -120 for +6½, and we're not interested in paying that tax for the extra half-point. We'll sell the half-point, take +6 at -105, and keep the price reasonable. A six-point JMU victory gives us our money back, while anything closer gets us to the window.

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