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Posted at 11:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

San Francisco +130 over Atlanta

(RHP – Landen Roupp vs. LHP – Martín Pérez)

7:15 PM EST. At first glance, Martín Pérez appears to have the edge. He enters with a sparkling 2.90 ERA and has been one of the pleasant surprises in Atlanta's rotation. Dig a little deeper, however, and the picture changes. Pérez owns an xERA above 4.00 and has benefited from a remarkably low .230 BABIP. Those are the types of numbers that tend to move toward the league average over time. While Pérez has pitched well, his ERA is painting a more favorable picture than the underlying metrics support.

Landen Roupp has experienced the opposite season. His 4.24 ERA doesn't look impressive, but several of his indicators suggest much better days ahead. Roupp is striking out nearly ten batters per nine innings, generating plenty of ground balls, and has allowed just 0.48 home runs per nine innings. His FIP sits more than a run lower than his ERA, indicating that poor fortune and sequencing have played a role in his inflated results.

Atlanta continues to receive premium market pricing based on reputation, talent, and public perception. The Braves deserve respect, but the gap between these two starters is much narrower than the odds suggest. San Francisco is receiving a generous price behind a pitcher whose underlying profile is considerably stronger than his surface numbers indicate.

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