Posted at 10:30 AM EST. Odds subject to change.

Pinnacle  +121 BET365  +115 Sportsinteraction  +115 888Sport  +115

Boston +121 over Cleveland

1:10 PM EST. The Red Sox are going with a bullpen day of sorts, as Brayan Bello will miss his turn in the rotation because of tightness in his right lat, but the club is hopeful that he’ll be back in a minimum of 15 days. That brings Chase Anderson (RHP - BOS) out of the bullpen and into the starter’s blocks, which is a role that he is not unfamiliar with, having spent most of his 10-year pro career as a starter. There was actually some chatter that Anderson would take Nick Pivetta’s spot in the rotation at the start of the season, but instead, he was moved into a bullpen role. In his 13 innings pitched thus far, Anderson has fared well with an 8:1 strikeout-to-walk ratio, a very nice 0.85 WHIP, and a decent xERA of 3.57. He’s also picked up two saves. We doubt Anderson will pitch deep into this game, but that really matters not, as we are here to attack Triston McKenzie (RHP - CLE).

McKenzie has struggled in the early going, but reports have surfaced that he is pitching through torn ligament damage in his right elbow, which is an issue that plagued him last season as well. At that time, McKenzie decided to avoid going under the knife and having Tommy John surgery and instead went with rest as his rehabilitation route. That decision appears to have been costly, as McKenzie has filed two clunkers over his last three starts. He has registered 12 BB across 13 IP in those three efforts. Today, he draws a Red Sox side that has banged out an OPS of .803 over its last eight games. Perhaps most alarming is that his fastball velocity (90.9 mph) is down nearly two miles per hour from two seasons ago (92.5 mph) and he’s walked nearly 20 percent of the batters seen this season. Simply put, McKenzie is a dumpster fire who is hurt, and he cannot be favored against the Red Sox in his current form.

Sherwood

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------

Posted at 10:30 AM EST. Odds subject to change.

Pinnacle  +113 BET365  +105 Sportsinteraction  +105 888Sport  +105

Chicago +113 over Houston

2:20 PM EST. While Javier Assad (RHP - CHC) is not the target here, we’ll shine a light on him, as he’s been a nice surprise for the Cubs after winning his first two games and posting a solid 3.18 xERA, 1.03 WHIP, and 21 Ks across 21.1 innings thus far. Assad isn’t going to blow anyone away, but we don’t need him to; we just need him to be better than the aged stiff he is facing on the other side of this equation.

Justin Verlander (RHP - HOU) is making his second start back from his season-opening IL stint with a shoulder injury. Verlander is making his first start at Wrigley Field since 2012, which is a tough assignment, as the Cubs own a robust .797 OPS at home. Verlander picked up a win versus the Nationals in his first start last Friday, where he allowed two runs on four hits over six innings while striking out four. With Verlander still on his way back from injury, he is reported to still be on a pitch count, and the Astros are very closely monitoring his workload.

Still, Father Time remains undefeated, but he's got a heck of a battle here with Justin Verlander. You can see the cracks accumulating in his swing and miss rate, BB%, K%, fly-ball rates and disaster starts percentage. There's also no evolution in his pitch mix; he's riding his same repertoire as far as it takes him. He pitched to the level of last year's weak xERA, but it’s bad news for those that back him if he does that again. Dude is great fade material and should not be roac chalk.

Sherwood

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------

Posted at 10:30 AM EST. Odds subject to change.

Pinnacle  -1½ +137 BET365  -1½ +125 Sportsinteraction  -1½ +125 888Sport  -1½ +125

Seattle -1½ +137 over Texas

2:35 PM EST. Louis Castillo (RHP - SEA) has some ugly surface stats and a brutal 1-4 record, but that has left him undervalued and under the radar despite some solid underlying numbers. Castillo’s ERA is 4.40, but his xERA is much better at 2.89, and he’s also sporting a sparkling 36:5 strikeout-to-walk ratio in his 28.2 IP. Castillo’s last start, while it came against the Rockies, was nearly flawless, as he retired 11 of the first 12 batters he faced while also not allowing anyone to reach second base in his 7 IP.

Last year we warned of wide uncertainty bars for Andrew Haney (LHP - TEX) and he quickly gave up most of his 2022 skill gains. His swing and miss rate plummeted, which led to a corresponding dip in K%, all while posting the worst BB% of his career. His ERA and xERA history both suggest that 2023 is the true representation of who he is. Dude has been worse this year with 9 walks in 17 innings to go along with an alarming ground ball/Fly-ball rate of 33%/55%. This is a weak pitcher who figures to get crooked numbers put up against him all year long. We’ll test that theory here, and look for the M’s to pile on the runs.

Sherwood

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------