Seattle @ Baltimore
Baltimore -1 +185 over Seattle

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smallbet365 -1½ +185 small888   -1½ +185

 

Posted at 12:30 PM EST and are subject to change

Baltimore -1½ +185 over Seattle

 

4:10 PM EST. Manager Brandon Hyde said Austin Voth (RHP - SEA) will stay in the rotation following his start last Friday versus the White Sox. Voth allowed one run on a hit and two walks while striking out three in three innings in a no-decision but Baltimore did win that game and they surely can win this one too. Voth may or may not go past three innings but we care not. Dude has paid his dues over the years (he’s 30 years old) and he certainly carries a chip on his shoulder, just like most of the O’s because of the disrespect given to them by the media and market. He can still touch 95 MPH on the gun, and has a rock-solid swing & miss rate of 15% over 28 innings this year, which has led to 28 K’s.

 

Chris Flexen (RHP - SEA) is very good fade material. In 77 innings, he has 55 K’s, 27 walks issued and a troublesome WHIP of 1.42. His swing & miss rate is a weak 9%. If you recall, Flexen honed his skills in the KBO during the 2020 season and returned last year with immaculate control fueled by a new cutter. Improvement versus righties was a major key while his off-speed heavy arsenal (just 40% fastball usage) fueled his success versus lefties. However, a low K% and a weak swing and miss rate to match caps his value and widens the range of outcomes given his dependence on defense. He blows up often, which is one of the reasons the Mariners are 4-10 in his 14 starts. Dude wins once a month but today he’s priced like his team wins three times a month when he starts.



Our Pick

Baltimore -1 +185 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 3.70)

Boston @ Toronto
Boston -1 +220 over Toronto

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smallbet365 -1½ +215 small888   -1½ +220

 

Posted at 12:30 PM EST and are subject to change.

Boston -1½ +215 over Toronto

 

7:05 PM EST. The Blue Jays won in walk-off fashion last night on the end of Vladimir Guerrero Jr.’s bat, as he sent home the winning run on a single after Boston’s bullpen combined to put the first two batters of the ninth inning on base before giving up back-to-back hits to Bo Bichette and Vladdy Junior. It was a huge win and one that’s wheels were set in motion after the Blue Jays forced the Red Sox to hit into a double play up 5-4 with one out in the top of 8th. That severely limited the damage and set the stage for the comeback. After that emotional win, Boston is on our radar today.

 

The Red Sox will send Nick Pivetta (RHP - BOS) to the mound for his 16th start of the year. Pivetta sports a WHIP of 1.11 and he has been consistent of late by lasting at least six innings in nine of his past 10 starts. He has won eight of those nine turns. Regardless, this play has little to do with Pivetta and the BoSox and everything with fading the Blue Jays after that aforementioned emotional night.

 

Alex Manoah (RHP - TOR) needs little introduction at this point, as he’s one of the two aces in the Jays rotation. Manoah has been great this season and we are going to take nothing away from him thus far, however, his 2.13 K/9 dip in his strikeout rate, which sits at 8.11 K/9 this season, a lucky strand rate at 82.1% and a groundball rate that is a tightrope-walking 37.7%. As we said, there isn’t much to argue with Manoah’s performance, but that is not why we are here. We are looking for teams and pitchers that are overpriced on any given day.

 

That bottom of the ninth win was an all-hands-on-deck effort that saw the Blue Jays burn through five bullpen arms that at times did their best to give the game away with Trent Thornton and Tim Mayza combining for three earned runs over just 1.1 innings. Toronto has taken two of three from the Red Sox in this series so far but Toronto caught lightning in a bottle last night and Boston is still one of the hottest teams in the league that ranks 1st overall in OPS v righties. Of course they can win.



Our Pick

Boston -1 +220 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 4.40)

RangeWLP+/- (Units)
Yesterday020.00-4.00
Last 30 Days25470.00-24.14
Season to Date961510.00-45.87