MLB Free Picks for
Posted at 11:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.
Colorado -1½ +220 over Texas
8:40 PM EST. Nobody is suggesting José Quintana (LHP - COL) is a better pitcher than MacKenzie Gore (LHP - TEX). He’s not. But this is Coors Field, where starting pitching often becomes far less relevant than bettors want to believe. The market still tends to overprice the perceived edge of the better starter in this environment, and that creates opportunities when the underdog offense has a realistic chance to erupt.
Quintana’s underlying numbers remain shaky, as his 5.88 expected ERA suggests trouble could still be lurking beneath the surface. However, results matter too, and the veteran left-hander has quietly managed Coors Field extremely well so far, allowing just six earned runs over his last four starts combined. He has avoided the big inning, limited hard contact at key moments, and kept Colorado competitive in games where many expected disaster.
Meanwhile, the Rangers arrive ice cold against left-handed pitching. Texas is hitting an abysmal .193 against southpaws with a pathetic .546 OPS, both dead last in Major League Baseball. This is not a lineup currently seeing the baseball well. In fact, the Rangers are seeing BB gun pellets right now. And there’s a psychological angle here that absolutely matters. Struggling offenses often arrive at Coors Field believing the altitude is going to magically cure everything. Hitters start thinking they’re about to break out, start swinging for the mountains, and often end up pressing even harder. We’ve seen it countless times over the years. Weak offenses come into Colorado expecting fireworks and instead continue chasing pitches and expanding the zone because they’re trying to force production. Colorado, meanwhile, is fully acclimated to this environment. The Rockies understand how the ball moves, how the outfield plays, and how to approach at-bats in this park.
MacKenzie Gore (LHP - TEX) still possesses frontline upside and can dominate when his command is sharp. However, his second-half collapse last season raised legitimate concerns after a major strikeout-to-walk regression combined with declining swing-and-miss numbers. The raw talent is undeniable, but Gore remains volatile enough that laying a heavy road price at Coors Field becomes dangerous business. At this massive plus price, the value sits squarely with Colorado on the reverse run line.
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Our Pick
Colorado -1½ +220 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 4.40)
Posted at 11:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.
Tampa Bay -1½ +140 over Baltimore
6:40 PM EST. Shane McClanahan (LHP - TB) is looking more and more like the ace version of himself again, and that’s bad news for the rest of the American League. After a lengthy rehab process following his second Tommy John surgery, along with additional setbacks involving triceps inflammation and a forearm nerve issue, there were legitimate concerns about whether McClanahan would ever fully regain his previous form. Those concerns are quickly disappearing.
The Rays’ left-hander has been dominant recently, allowing zero earned runs over his last 22 innings while recording three PQS-DOM outings over his last four starts. His command has sharpened, the velocity has returned, and hitters are once again struggling to make any sort of hard contact against him. At Tropicana Field, he has been virtually untouchable, posting a 3-0 record with a microscopic 0.87 ERA and 0.87 WHIP across four home starts.
Baltimore arrives struggling badly offensively. The Orioles have produced just an 81 wRC+ (Weighted Runs Created) during May and continue to show signs of a lineup pressing for answers. That’s not the ideal situation when facing a pitcher with McClanahan’s current form and confidence. Historically, the matchup has heavily favored Tampa Bay’s ace as well, as McClanahan owns a 6-0 record with a 2.86 ERA in nine career starts against Baltimore.
Trevor Rogers (LHP - BAL) enters with respectable-looking overall numbers, but the underlying indicators are beginning to flash warning signs everywhere. Rogers has walked seven batters over his last 10 innings while allowing opponents to consistently create traffic on the bases. His ERA during that stretch sits at 10.81 and even the expected ERA checks in at an alarming 6.51, suggesting the recent struggles are not simply poor luck. The command has become inconsistent and the margin for error is rapidly shrinking.
Last season, Rogers benefited from an unsustainably favorable run that masked some concerning indicators beneath the surface. If bettors want to continue paying premium prices based on last year’s numbers, that’s their decision, but the regression signs are becoming increasingly difficult to ignore.
This matchup strongly favors Tampa Bay from both a pitching and current-form standpoint. With McClanahan pitching at an elite level again and Baltimore’s offense sputtering, the reverse run line offers strong value at this price.
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Bet365 Early Payout – How It Works
Straight Bets:
If the team you back to win goes up by the designated number of points at any time during the game, BET365 will pay out your bet in full immediately, even if the opposing team later comes back and wins the game.
Parlays & Same Game Parlays:
If a team you’ve selected goes up by the designated number of points that selection will be marked as WON in My Bets. Any remaining legs of the parlay will continue to run as normal.
Once a selection is marked as won under the Early Payout rules, it cannot be reversed, regardless of what happens later in the game.
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Our Pick
Tampa Bay -1½ +140 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.80)
Posted at 11:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.
Milwaukee +140 over Chicago
7:40 PM EST. No chance are we passing up Milwaukee at this price. The Brewers are 26-18 with a ridiculous +61 run differential, they’re 8-2 over their last 10 games, and this is a team capable of winning every single night regardless of opponent or venue. This number is inflated because the Cubs have piled up wins at Wrigley and because Shota Imanaga carries a strong reputation, but there’s more value here than the odds suggest.
Brandon Sproat (RHP - MIL) is still very much a developing arm, but these are exactly the types of pitchers worth speculating on before the market fully catches up. His surface numbers don’t jump off the page after going 0-2 with a 4.79 ERA in 20 innings at Triple-A, but prospect development is rarely linear. Sproat was one of the bigger breakout arms in 2024 and still possesses the type of raw stuff that gives him legitimate upside. He generates an extreme ground-ball profile, which is a huge weapon at Wrigley, and when young pitchers with this type of arsenal begin to settle in, value appears quickly before oddsmakers fully adjust.
Shota Imanaga (LHP - CHC) is excellent and deserves respect. He limits baserunners, competes deep into games, and generally keeps the Cubs in strong position to win. But this isn’t really about fading Imanaga. It’s about backing a Milwaukee team that continues to produce offensively, continues to win games, and continues to be undervalued because the betting market still gives Chicago a little too much credit based on name value and home record.
Milwaukee’s offense has become one of the more dangerous attacks in baseball. They pressure defenses, create traffic constantly, and their ability to manufacture runs gives them a chance against any style of pitcher. Add in one of the best run differentials in the league and recent form that’s been outstanding, and this price becomes too attractive to ignore. The Crew simply need to continue doing what they’ve been doing for weeks now — compete hard every night and find ways to win games. At this number, that’s enough value for us.
Take advantage of BET365's early NFL payout offer
Bet365 Early Payout – How It Works
Straight Bets:
If the team you back to win goes up by the designated number of points at any time during the game, BET365 will pay out your bet in full immediately, even if the opposing team later comes back and wins the game.
Parlays & Same Game Parlays:
If a team you’ve selected goes up by the designated number of points that selection will be marked as WON in My Bets. Any remaining legs of the parlay will continue to run as normal.
Once a selection is marked as won under the Early Payout rules, it cannot be reversed, regardless of what happens later in the game.
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Our Pick
Milwaukee +140 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.80)
MLB Historical - Totals
| Range | W | L | P | +/- (Units) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yesterday | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Last 30 Days | 29 | 26 | 0.00 | +27.70 |
| Season to Date | 54 | 61 | 0.00 | +22.00 |
