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Posted at 11:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

Toronto +110 over Boston

(RHP – Trey Yesavage vs. RHP – Sonny Gray)

1:35 PM EST. Trey Yesavage has made only nine starts, but his underlying numbers suggest he belongs. The young Blue Jays right-hander owns a 3.78 ERA, but his xERA sits at 3.16, indicating he may have pitched even better than the surface numbers suggest. Yesavage has also done an excellent job limiting home runs, allowing just 0.57 per nine innings, and his fastball velocity remains strong. While his walk rate is elevated, Boston is paying a premium here based largely on reputation and home field.

Sonny Gray's 8-1 record and 3.03 ERA jump off the page, but several indicators point toward possible regression. His xERA is more than a run higher than his actual ERA, and his strikeout rate is down from previous seasons. Gray has benefited from a high strand rate and favorable sequencing, two metrics that often fluctuate over time. While he remains an effective starter, the gap between these two pitchers is nowhere near what the market is implying.

The Blue Jays are being offered at plus money despite carrying a live arm and a lineup capable of producing against quality pitching. Boston's strong start and Gray's sparkling record appear to be driving the market. In a matchup where the pitching edge is much smaller than the odds suggest, Toronto offers the value.

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