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Posted at 11:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

Cleveland +130 over Milwaukee

(LHP – Parker Messick vs. LHP – Shane Drohan)

2:10 PM EST. Parker Messick has quietly been one of the better stories in baseball this season. Through 14 starts, the Cleveland left-hander owns a 2.68 ERA with supporting indicators that validate much of his success. His strikeout rate is strong, his ground-ball profile is solid, and his 3.32 FIP suggests that this isn't simply smoke and mirrors. Cleveland has received quality innings from him all season

Milwaukee counters with Shane Drohan, whose numbers look impressive at first glance, but the sample remains limited. Drohan has worked primarily in a swing role and has made only four starts. While his underlying metrics are encouraging, asking him to continue producing at this level while transitioning into a larger workload remains a question mark. The market appears to be giving Milwaukee full credit for his early success.

The Brewers deserve respect at home, but this price feels inflated. Cleveland has the more established starter in this matchup and continues to be undervalued because of injuries and a less explosive offense. In a game that projects as a low-scoring affair, grabbing the plus money with the more proven arm makes sense.

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