Pinnacle  -3.5 -105 BET365   -3.5 -105  Sportsinteraction   -3.5 -105  888Sport  -3.5 -105

Posted at 9:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

New England -3.5 over LA Chargers

8:30 PM ET. The market is trying to sell this game as “quarterbacks equal, so take the points.” That story ignores the part that actually decides playoff games: who controls the line of scrimmage. Justin Herbert has been sacked 54 times, the Chargers have used a league-leading 32 offensive line combinations, and they come into Foxborough still duct-taping the edges together. That is not a small problem when you are walking into a Vrabel defense that lives to make quarterbacks miserable. Drake Maye has taken his share of hits, yet New England still finished top-three in offense and second in scoring because this attack stays on schedule and does not beat itself.

Los Angeles looks respectable on paper, yet that profile is quietly hollow. Twelfth in offense, 20th in scoring, and built on a quarterback who has been running for his life all season. Meanwhile New England sits second in points, third in yardage, and top-five in scoring defense. That is not noise. That is a profile of a team that can dictate terms. The Chargers need Herbert to be heroic just to stay afloat, while the Patriots can win this game with efficiency, field position and pressure.

Oddsmakers are dangling a short number to keep Charger money flowing because Herbert’s name still carries weight. This is a classic playoff misprice. One team is complete, balanced and at home. The other is limping into January behind a broken offensive line. New England does not need fireworks here. It needs to grind, get to Herbert, and let Maye turn this into a two-score game. Lay the 3.5 and let the trenches do the talking.

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