Pinnacle  +105 BET365   +105  Sportsinteraction   +105  888Sport   +105

Posted at 9:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

Buffalo +105 over Jacksonville

1:00 PM ET. The public sees an eight-game Jacksonville heater and a Bills team that lost its division. The market sees something else. If the Jaguars were truly this juggernaut everyone is pretending they are, they would not be sitting at home as a pick’em against Josh Allen. Jacksonville has been great for two months, no question. They also went from turnover machine to turnover vacuum overnight, which is rarely sustainable in January. Interceptions, short fields and bounces drove a big chunk of that late-season surge, and those are the first things that dry up in the postseason.

Trevor Lawrence’s numbers over the final six games are eye-popping, but this is also the first time he is carrying expectations into the playoffs instead of sneaking up on people. Buffalo knows exactly who he is now, and Sean McDermott’s defenses have always been at their best when they can key on a single quarterback and force him to be perfect. Meanwhile Josh Allen is built for this stage. His playoff numbers are better than his regular-season numbers, he’s healthy again, and Kansas City is finally out of his way. That matters more than any road-game narrative.

Jacksonville’s win streak has masked how thin the margin really is. Buffalo has played nothing but playoff-level football for two months just to get here. The Bills are being priced like a flawed road team instead of an elite quarterback with a defense that has already seen this movie. The wrong team is favored, so we take the even money and back the side with the superstar who can blow the doors off in a single quarter.

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