Pinnacle  +6 -110 BET365   +6 -110  Sportsinteraction   +6 -110  888Sport  +6 -110

Posted at 9:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

San Francisco +6 over Philadelphia

4:30 PM ET. The market is selling fear. Jalen Hurts is 5-0 at home in the playoffs, the Eagles wear the defending-champion crown, and the public remembers a 31-7 NFC title game two years ago when Brock Purdy’s elbow snapped before the first quarter was even over. That memory is doing all the heavy lifting in this number. Strip it away and this is not a touchdown-spread matchup between two wild-card teams. San Francisco won six straight before a meaningless Week 18 face-plant, went 7-2 on the road, and already walked into this building last season and left with a 42-19 blowout. The books hung +6 anyway because they know casual money loves home-playoff favorites.

Philadelphia’s defense looks shiny on paper with Fangio, Mitchell, DeJean and Carter, yet this unit still has to deal with McCaffrey, Deebo, Aiyuk and Purdy operating inside one of the most efficient systems in football. Shanahan has already shown he can torch this stadium when his quarterback stays upright. Meanwhile the Eagles spent Week 18 resting half the lineup and hoping rust does not show up at the worst possible time. San Francisco did the opposite, playing for the No. 1 seed and keeping its foot on the gas, which matters far more than a fake “momentum” loss.

This line is built on reputation, not reality. The Eagles are being priced like an unbeatable home machine, while the 49ers are being treated like some shaky road dog instead of a 12-win team with elite balance on both sides of the ball. When a game between two true heavyweights is being offered at a full six points, the value screams. Take the points, trust the roster that can match Philadelphia punch for punch, and let the market’s nostalgia do the rest.

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Here is a wager we were paid out early on that would eventually lose. 

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