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Posted at 8:00 AM ET. Odds are subject to change

CINCINNATI +10½ over Detroit

4:25 PM EST, There are times in this racket when the right side feels downright disgusting, and this is one of those spots. Prior to the season, the thought of Cincinnati being a double-digit dog would have been laughable. Joe Burrow may not be under center right now, but the cupboard isn’t as bare as the market wants you to think. Yes, the Bengals are dead last in total yards, rushing, and 30th in scoring through four weeks, but that’s precisely why you’re getting this inflated tag. Jake Browning has looked like a guy still figuring it out, but Zac Taylor continues to back him, and a competent QB with even a flicker of confidence can change the trajectory quickly. Regression works both ways—what’s ugly now rarely stays ugly forever.

On the other side, the Lions are the belle of the ball. They’ve ripped off three straight wins and covers after an ugly opener, and bettors are lined up around the block to click Detroit tickets. Since 2021, Detroit is an absurd 50-21-1 against the spread, which sounds like the kind of trend you can mortgage the house on. Only problem? Everyone and their brother knows it. Markets adapt. Laying doubles with a “hot” ATS team after a multi-week streak is precisely how books fatten their Christmas bonuses. Factor in that Detroit has Kansas City on deck in prime time and you’ve got yourself a perfect recipe for a flat performance or, at the very least, a lack of urgency. Situationally, this is a textbook “buy low, sell high” moment.

Cincinnati’s stock hasn’t been this toxic in 30 years, while Detroit’s stock is skyrocketing. The Bengals are the team nobody wants to be associated with—public perception has them pegged as a dumpster fire. Yet the NFL is built on volatility: bad teams don’t stay bad, and good teams don’t cash tickets indefinitely. Laying points is easy when everything looks perfect. Taking them is how you actually make money in the long run. Finally, let’s not gloss over the historical betting system in play here. Home underdogs of +7 or more in the first half of the season are 38-10-2 ATS since 2020, hitting at nearly 80 percent. That isn’t noise—that’s structural inefficiency.

The Browns cashed that role earlier this season, and Dallas nearly did the same before the line dipped under a touchdown. Cincinnati fits it perfectly here, and while you may want to hold your nose when you click “submit,” the math and the market both say the same thing: this is the right side.

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