Posted at 10:00 AM EST. Odds subject to change.

Pinnacle +128 BET365 +125 Sportsinteraction +120   888Sport +125

Boston +128 over Seattle

9:40 PM EST. George Kirby’s (RHP - SEA) impressive sophomore season came with several signs of growth. His MLB-best walk rate came with firm support from xBB% while his new split-finger helped drive his second half swing and miss rate spike. He also held higher velocity over a heavier workload. Already with a strong floor given pinpoint control, he's a bona-fide ace if late whiffs translate to more Ks. Dude is good but that doesn’t mean the M’s should be favored in this range against a Red Sox team that came out hitting last night. Besides, Boston’s pitcher might be one of this year’s most under the radar/undervalued starters.

No name at the top of 2023 stuff leaderboard may be more surprising than Nick Pivetta’s (RHP - BOS).  especially if, like most people, you didn’t pay a lot of attention to the Red Sox in the second half of last season. Pivetta was used as a traditional starting pitcher until May 16 (6.30 ERA, 12.6% K-BB%). Then he was demoted and transitioned to mostly multi-inning relief (3.48 ERA, 35.6% K%, 26.6% K-BB% in 72.1 IP), then finished with pitch mix tweak and five tantalizing starts (2.37 ERA, 15.7% SwK%, 4.3% BB%). The new pitch turned his season around and he returned to the rotation for good in September. In those final five outings, he recorded 38 strikeouts and just five walks across 30 innings. Most encouragingly, Pivetta pitched seven scoreless innings in each of his final two starts. That xBB% progression, velocity/K bump, workhorse frame points to VALUE and we’re on it.

Sherwood

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