Posted at 9:00 AM EST. Odds subject to change.

Pinnacle  +116 BET365  +110 Sportsinteraction  +110 888Sport  +110

Cincinnati +116 over Texas

4:05 PM EST. Hunter Greene (RHP - CIN) took the loss on Monday, allowing four runs on seven hits and walking over seven innings against the Phillies while striking out six. Greene was admittedly not great, but he was good enough to keep the Reds in the game. However, the Cincinnati offense couldn't manage a single run against Philly. Greene brings an ugly surface ERA of 4.55 into this turn tonight, but his xERA is much better at 2.51. Furthermore, Greene has been very unlucky, as his Batting Average of Balls in Play (BABIP) is an inflated .343, which means the guys behind him have let him down defensively. While it might not look like it on paper, Greene is as good as he’s ever been, posting both a very solid first-pitch strike rate of 63.6% and a swing-and-miss rate of 13.4%, which is exactly where he finished in 2023. He's in mid-season form, but he is being offered up at a discount here.

That said, Michael Lorenzen (RHP - TEX) is the real target here, as he cannot be favored in this range in his current form. While he is 2-0 and sports a surface ERA of 2.45, Lorenzen’s xERA is a bloated 6.47. Unlike Greene, Lorenzen’s BABIP shows that he’s been very lucky, as it’s just .208. He has walked eight batters in his 11 IP, and an inflated strand rate of 87.3% tells us that he is playing with fire. Mix in a weak first-pitch strike rate of 52.3%, and you’ve got a pitcher who is ready to explode for all the wrong reasons. Until there is a correction to the smoke and mirrors that are his surface stats, Lorenzen is on our radar to fade, as he cannot be favored in this range against the Reds. It’s time to “buy low” on Greene and “sell high” on Lorenzen, making this an easy wager for us to make.

Sherwood

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