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Posted at 12:00 PM EST.

7:10 PM EST. German Marquez is 1-2 after five starts with a 6.14 ERA but if you take away his Coors Field numbers, he’s 1-0 on the road after two starts with an ERA of 1.64. That 1.64 road ERA is going to stick out and be a point of emphasis for so many pick sellers today that it’s not even funny. Marquez is a decent enough pitcher to get this win and we would even suggest that he carries some nice profit potential when he’s taking back a price but be very careful about fading the Marlins here. Marquez has walked 13 batters in 21 frames and six batters in 11 road innings, which has led to a playing with fire WHIP of 1.59. He’s also been hit hard by righties and Miami has enough right-handed bats to do a bit of damage here.

The real reason for this choice is twofold. First, the oddsmakers have hung an enticing number on the Rockies here when you consider that Marquez has market credibility while Miami’s starter, Caleb Smith has none. Furthermore, Miami doesn’t win baseball games so that small number on the Rocks looks very appetizing. Enter Caleb Smith and his 0-3 record with a 5.82 ERA after five starts. Smith has walked 15 batters in 22 innings but don’t put emphasis on that, as he did not walk a batter in his last start and has an outstanding 70% first-pitch strike rate. Additionally, Smith has never had control issues before. Simply credit two cold-weather starts in Philadelphia (6 walks) and New York (5 walks) for his high walk totals. In his last game, indoors at Milwaukee, Smith struck out 10 Brewers in six innings and now has 32 K’s in 22 innings with a supported 15% swing and miss rate. Primarily a fastball/changeup pitcher, Smith has added a cutter to his repertoire to give him three legit pitches. His fastball is his best pitch. He’s able to command the pitch to both sides of the plate and use some deception in his delivery to play the pitch up. Dude is dealing 94 MPH heat and comes in with an xERA of 3.02 when you exclude those two aforementioned starts in frigid temperatures. This is a hugely under the radar pitcher with tremendous upside that will be taking back big prices for the most part in most of his starts over the next four to six weeks because the cold weather wreaked havoc on his surface stats. That’s he’s a very small underdog here is also telling us to bet the Fish here.

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