Pinnacle +150 BET365 +140 Sportsinteraction +140 888Sport +140

Posted at 10:00 AM EST. Odds subject to change.

Toronto over Philadelphia

1:05 PM EST. This is not about Chris Bassitt (RHP - TOR) and the Blue Jays, although we’ll note that after the beatdown they took yesterday, the heat is on, and the pitchforks are out not only in Hogtown but across the Great White North, where the Blue Jays are a national entity. That said, Bassitt is coming off a serviceable start in which he gave up three runs on four hits over six innings pitched. He struck out four and walked just one against the Royals; however, the Jays lost that game 6-1. Most positively, Bassitt fired 62 of his 92 pitches for strikes, and it was his third quality start of the season despite his being saddled with the loss.

The Phillies are the hottest team in baseball, and they just whacked the Blue Jays last night, but it’s now time to switch gears, as we are purveyors of value, and we have an overvalued starting pitcher on the other side of this coin. Aaron Nola has been an ace for years, but there appear to be some cracks forming in the former all-star. While he has allowed just three earned runs or less in all six starts this season, with 37 strikeouts over 39 IP, the concerns include a 15.1% K-BB to go with a lucky .196 Batting Average of Balls in Play (BABIP) and an equally fortunate 90.3% strand rate. All signs point to some regression on the horizon. While there is no guarantee it comes today, Nola is in line for his first bad start sooner rather than later, and with the Jays taking back a price like this, we're more than happy to put that hypothesis to the test.

Sherwood

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------