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Posted at 10:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

Atlanta +100 over New Orleans

8:15 PM EST. Both teams are 1-2, but those identical records are being viewed very differently. New Orleans has become one of the early-season darlings because Tyler Shough has put up big numbers and the Saints could make a reasonable case that they're a few plays away from being 3-0. Atlanta, meanwhile, opened with losses to Pittsburgh and Carolina before finally showing what this roster is capable of in a 35-14 dismantling of Green Bay. That difference in perception has created our opportunity.

The Saints absolutely could be 3-0. They had chances to beat Detroit, they knocked off Baltimore, and last week they led Las Vegas 27-16 before turning the ball over four times in the fourth quarter and losing 35-27. Shough threw four touchdown passes and has already accumulated 917 passing yards with eight touchdowns. He's been impressive. He's also turned the ball over three times in two of New Orleans' three games.

That's where Atlanta becomes particularly interesting. This Falcons defense is good. Very good. They're eighth in defensive EPA per play, and Shough is about to see a unit considerably different from the defenses that helped produce some of those gaudy early numbers. Shough entered this season with only 10 NFL starts. Every week provides defensive coordinators with more film, more tendencies and more information about where he's comfortable and where he isn't.

New Orleans also has an issue in the backfield. Travis Etienne suffered a hamstring injury last week and is expected to miss time, while Alvin Kamara simply isn't the same player anymore. Kamara is averaging 2.8 yards per carry and just 2.0 yards per reception. If Etienne isn't available, considerably more of the offense falls directly onto Shough's shoulders against the strength of this Atlanta team.

The Falcons have their quarterback back. Michael Penix Jr. looked sharp in his season debut against Green Bay, and Atlanta suddenly looked nothing like the team that stumbled through the first two weeks. The Falcons were awful in Carolina, no argument there. But the opening loss to Pittsburgh was a game Atlanta had every opportunity to win despite its quarterback situation. Put Penix under center from Week 1 and this team's record could easily look much different.

Atlanta also had extra preparation after playing Thursday, and this isn't some veteran roster trying to squeeze out one final season. The Falcons are young and loaded with talent. The reports throughout training camp were overwhelmingly positive, with players repeatedly talking about the quality of the work and the group Atlanta had assembled. It didn't show immediately because the quarterback situation disrupted everything. With Penix back, we're getting a much better look at what this team was supposed to be.

The market is giving New Orleans credit for how competitive it has been against Detroit, Baltimore and Las Vegas. Fair enough. But it's also asking us to essentially choose the winner of this game, and the value is on Atlanta. The Saints' offense has produced plenty of yards and points, but it has also produced turnovers, and now its running-back situation is compromised. Atlanta arrives with the better defense, Penix back under center and extra preparation. At +100, there's no need for the points. 

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