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Posted Friday at 2:30pm EST and odds are subject to change.

NFL Week:

October 2

What you see below is our early leans. Many of the selections below will stay the same and some will be moved into official plays with wagers on Sunday. However, there is also the possibility that we see, read or get a sense that something is not right with one of our selections and change our pick. There are several different criteria we use to grade a game and make it an official play and a lot of things can happen or change between Friday and Sunday. We’ll have all write-ups (except Monday Night Football) posted on Friday but our actual wagers won’t be posted until Sunday morning between 10 AM and 12:00 PM EST

Indianapolis -3½ over Washington

9:30 AM EST. We’re not going to spend a ton of time on this one because the NFL’s cash grab across the ocean continues. Apparently Uncle Roger doesn’t think having you glued to the television from 1 PM until midnight on Sunday is enough. Now he wants your breakfast, too. There’s no reason this game couldn’t be played later in London, but another television window means another television window. More importantly for bettors, these international games introduce additional variables—travel, disrupted routines, unfamiliar surroundings and an unusual kickoff time—that make them less appealing to us. Gun to our head, however, we’ll lay the -3½ with Indianapolis.

Washington is coming off an impressive upset of Seattle, but the final score was considerably prettier than the underlying performance. The Seahawks outgained Washington by 179 yards and held a 2.8 yards-per-play advantage. Three Washington touchdowns were directly connected to Seattle turnovers, including drives beginning at the Seattle 21 and 32 and an interception returned for a touchdown. On Washington possessions beginning conventionally, the results were mostly punts with only one touchdown drive. That's precisely the type of performance the market tends to remember by the final score rather than how it was produced.

Indianapolis, meanwhile, earned its first victory by controlling Houston far more convincingly than the score suggests. The Colts held the Texans to 223 yards, 17 first downs and 4.4 yards per play, while running 20 more offensive plays. They converted 7-of-15 third downs and both of their fourth-down attempts. Jonathan Taylor gets a difficult matchup against a Washington run defense that has held up well, but the Commanders have been much easier to attack through the air. Alec Pierce being out certainly doesn't help Indianapolis, but Daniel Jones should have opportunities if the Colts can keep him reasonably clean.

Washington also arrives in London with an injury list that has included Jayden Daniels, Chig Okonkwo, Samuel Cosmi, Frankie Luvu and Nick Cross, while Leo Chenal suffered a season-ending injury last week. Marcus Mariota played well against Seattle, but asking him to reproduce that result while eliminating the turnover-created short fields is another matter. Maybe Washington wins outright again but after its upset and the flattering nature of that final score, we're not interested in chasing the Commanders. If forced to participate in Uncle Roger's Sunday-morning cash-grab, we'll lay it with Indianapolis. Recommendation: Indianapolis -3½ 

Cincinnati -2½ over Jacksonville

1:00 PM EST. Three weeks into an NFL season is just about the perfect time for the market to start believing it knows something. Jacksonville is 2-1 and just hung 35 points on New England, while Cincinnati is coming home after losing to Pittsburgh. The Jaguars are suddenly being treated like a team on the rise while the Bengals are being marked down. We're not buying that adjustment. At -2½, we're essentially being asked whether Cincinnati can win this game at home, and we're comfortable paying the small premium to find out

Jacksonville's start has been impressive on the scoreboard, but there are some warning signs underneath it. The Jaguars are scoring 27.3 points per game on only 314 yards per game, and they've been one of the biggest beneficiaries of turnovers through three weeks. Those extra possessions and short fields have helped make the offense look more dangerous than its overall production suggests. Trevor Lawrence has plenty of options, and Jacksonville may indeed be improved, but victories over Cleveland and New England aren't enough for us to suddenly treat the Jaguars as Cincinnati's equal on a neutral field.

The Bengals lost last week because they couldn't finish the job in Pittsburgh, not because Joe Burrow suddenly forgot how to play quarterback. Burrow went 28-of-37 for 282 yards with three touchdowns, and Cincinnati scored 27 points on the road. That's a perfectly respectable offensive performance. Now Burrow gets Jacksonville at home with Ja'Marr Chase and an offense capable of attacking a Jaguars defense that hasn't shown us enough to warrant this level of market confidence.

This looks much more like a buy-low Cincinnati, sell-high Jacksonville spot than an indication that these teams have crossed paths in the power ratings. Had this game been played before Jacksonville's 35-6 win and Cincinnati's loss at Pittsburgh, we'd almost certainly be dealing with a larger number. That's the price adjustment we're interested in. Jacksonville may eventually prove worthy of all the early-season enthusiasm, but we're not paying for it after three games. We'll take Burrow at home and lay less than a field goal. Recommendation: Cinci -2½

Las Vegas +4½ over Kansas City

4:25 PM EST. Both of these teams have seen their stock soar through three weeks, and both are 3-0 straight up and against the spread. The difference is that Kansas City is being asked to carry that perfect record onto the road and spot more than a field goal to another unbeaten team. We're not interested. The Raiders haven't stumbled into 3-0 because of a couple of bizarre finishes or an unsustainable defensive scoring spree. They've looked like a legitimately improved football team, and +4½ at home gives us plenty to work with.

Klint Kubiak has transformed the Las Vegas offense quickly. Kirk Cousins has nine touchdown passes, Brock Bowers is becoming an enormous problem for opposing defenses, and the combination of Ashton Jeanty and Mike Washington Jr. has given the Raiders balance on the ground. That's important because Las Vegas isn't asking Cousins to throw it 45 times every Sunday. Through three games, they've called 93 runs and 92 passes, which is about as balanced as an offense can get. The offensive line has also been better than anticipated, and what looked before the season like a rebuilding offense suddenly has multiple ways to move the football.

Kansas City is obviously dangerous, but last week's 24-10 victory over Miami was considerably less dominant than the two-touchdown margin suggests. The Chiefs also have an issue up front that matters here. Patrick Mahomes took some punishment against Miami, and now those tackles have to deal with Maxx Crosby, who can wreck an entire game plan without Las Vegas having to manufacture pressure. On the other side, Kansas City's defense has its own difficult assignment with Bowers. Steve Spagnuolo will undoubtedly devote considerable attention to him, but doing so creates opportunities elsewhere in an offense that has already demonstrated it doesn't have to live through one player.

There's also a subtle difference between believing Kansas City is the better team and believing Kansas City should be laying 4½ on the road against this version of Las Vegas. Those aren't the same proposition. The Chiefs' reputation guarantees that you'll rarely receive a discount when backing them, while the market still appears reluctant to completely trust what Las Vegas has done. Maybe the Raiders aren't ready to knock Kansas City off the AFC West perch, but nothing we've seen through three weeks suggests they're a fluke, either. In a divisional game between two unbeaten teams, we'll gladly take more than a field goal with the home side. Recommendation: Las Vegas +4½

Tampa Bay +3½ over Green Bay

1:00 PM EST. Man, what a matchup. If you've been betting Green Bay this year, you're probably not in any hurry to get back to the window. If you've been betting Tampa Bay, you may feel like puking blood. The Buccaneers have now gone 12 consecutive games without covering a point spread, while the Packers have been a lousy investment themselves. So forget trying to identify which of these teams is more trustworthy. Neither is. The exercise here is figuring out whose stock has been beaten down further than it deserves, and we're going to hold our noses and take +3½ with Tampa Bay.

The first reaction is obvious. Baker Mayfield dislocated the thumb on his throwing hand last week and now Jalon Daniels makes his first NFL start. Green Bay has Jordan Love, an established NFL quarterback, while Tampa Bay is handing the offense to a rookie who hasn't completed an NFL pass. That disparity alone is going to push bettors toward Green Bay. But there's considerably more to the Daniels story than simply labeling him a rookie backup who has suddenly been thrown into the fire.

Daniels earned this job. Tampa Bay brought in Jake Browning during the offseason on a one-year contract, and Browning wasn't some anonymous camp arm. He had started NFL games for Cincinnati and had been trusted to replace Joe Burrow when Burrow was injured. Yet Browning didn't even make it through final cuts with Tampa Bay. The Buccaneers released him on August 30, leaving Daniels behind Mayfield. In other words, Daniels wasn't sitting third on the depth chart and suddenly got promoted because everybody else got hurt. He beat out an experienced NFL backup for the job.

Daniels is intriguing as hell. At Kansas, he accumulated more than 9,000 passing yards and 1,400 rushing yards, with 67 touchdown passes, and he spent years operating an offense rather than arriving in the NFL as some one-year college wonder.    Pasted markdown He's mobile, athletic and capable of creating when the play breaks down. That doesn't mean he's going to walk into his first NFL start and light Green Bay up. Rookie quarterbacks can look terrific for one possession and completely lost on the next. But Tampa Bay's offense has been stale and Mayfield spent much of the first three games running for his life. Maybe introducing a quarterback who can escape pressure and create something with his legs isn't the catastrophe everyone assumes. Maybe it actually gives this offense a little spark.

That becomes especially interesting after watching what Atlanta did to Green Bay last week. The Falcons ran for 224 yards while pounding the Packers 35-14. Now Green Bay has to prepare for a quarterback whose legs are a legitimate part of his game. Tampa Bay can move Daniels around, use the read-option element, change the launch point and force Green Bay's front to account for the quarterback instead of simply attacking a stationary target. Daniels doesn't have to become Lamar Jackson on Sunday. Just the threat of him pulling the ball down and running changes what the defense has to defend.

Before anyone starts getting excited about laying points with Green Bay because Love has the experience advantage, let's examine exactly what we're buying. The Packers are 1-2 and could very easily be 0-3. They were fortunate to escape the Jets in Week 2, then followed it by getting demolished by Atlanta. They're averaging only 18.7 points per game, the running game has been ineffective, there are problems along the offensive line and Jayden Reed is unavailable. Love threw the ball 53 times last week because Green Bay couldn't establish anything on the ground. This is the team we're supposed to lay more than a field goal with on the road?

Tampa Bay is 0-3. It hasn't covered in forever. Its starting quarterback is injured. A rookie is making his first NFL start. We get it. There isn't a single one of those facts that hasn't already been beaten into this number. That's what makes the Buccaneers worthy.  If Mayfield were healthy and Tampa Bay hadn't spent the past year burning bettors' money, Green Bay isn't walking into Tampa laying 3½. The market is charging the Buccaneers for every piece of bad news attached to them while seemingly giving Green Bay a pass for being pretty damn bad itself.

Maybe Daniels comes out looking like a rookie and Tampa loses again. That's certainly possible. But there's another possibility: the kid who played a ton of football at Kansas, beat out an established NFL backup and brings an element with his legs that Tampa hasn't had comes in and gives a dead offense some life. Against a Green Bay defense that just surrendered 224 rushing yards, that's enough intrigue for us. We're getting +3½ at home against a 1-2 team that could easily be 0-3. Come on. Recommendation: Tampa Bay +3½

Philadelphia +3 over L.A. Rams

1:00 PM EST. Remember all summer when the Rams were going to conquer civilization? Every preview seemed to love them. Super Bowl contender. Loaded roster. Sean McVay. Matthew Stafford. Some people were talking about Los Angeles as though 17-0 was a reasonable starting point. Three games later, the Rams are 1-2, which is a useful reminder of how quickly August certainty turns into October bullshit. None of that means Los Angeles can't win this game, but we're not interested in spotting a field goal on the road with them.

There is a perfectly reasonable case for a Rams rebound. They lost to San Francisco, came back the following week and hammered Detroit, and now they're coming off another loss after blowing a 16-point lead against Denver. So the natural reaction is that McVay gets them straightened out again. Fine. Maybe he does. But that's also an extremely comfortable narrative compared with what Philadelphia is bringing to the window this week.

The Eagles were absolutely toxic Monday night. They went into Chicago against a backup quarterback with seemingly the entire football world expecting them to win, and instead produced seven points — with their only touchdown coming with essentially no time remaining in the first half. The offense has been stuck in mud for a long time. Too many three-and-outs, too many third-and-longs, too many running plays going nowhere. Anyone who backed Philadelphia Monday night spent three hours swearing at the television. Now we're supposed to come back six days later and bet them again?

That's precisely the point.

One of the easiest traps in sports wagering is the weekly zigzag. Bet Philadelphia on Monday, watch them play like garbage, swear you'll never bet them again, and then automatically bet the Rams against them the following Sunday. Nothing about the price matters anymore. You're not handicapping the next game; you're reacting emotionally to the last one. It's one of the cardinal sins of wagering, and the NFL provides opportunities to commit it every single week.

Meanwhile, the Rams haven't exactly earned this sudden vote of confidence. They're 1-2, they just blew a substantial lead, and Puka Nacua has missed the past two games, with his status still worth watching. Yet because Philadelphia embarrassed itself in front of a national television audience, Los Angeles now becomes the appealing side. Funny how quickly perception changes. A week ago people couldn't get enough Eagles tickets. Now those same bettors won't touch them with somebody else's money.

There's also something useful about getting Philadelphia back home after that humiliation. This offense doesn't have to suddenly become the 2022 Eagles. At +3, we're being given a full field goal with the team whose price has been damaged by the most recent and most visible performance. That's a very different proposition from laying points with Philadelphia last Monday night when everybody loved them.

Maybe the Rams bounce back again. Maybe Philadelphia's offensive problems are every bit as serious as they looked in Chicago. But wagering isn't about finding the team with the fewest problems. It's about determining whether those problems have already been incorporated into the price. Philadelphia looked horrific in the exact game everybody watched, while Los Angeles enters with the much easier bounce-back story to sell. Last week the crowd couldn't wait to bet Philadelphia. This week they can't wait to get away from them. We'll zig when they're zagging Recommendation: Philadelphia +3

Tennessee +11½ over Baltimore

1:00 PM EST. Tennessee is going to be a difficult team for anyone to back this week, and that's precisely why we're interested. The Titans are 0-3, they've scored just 37 points, and Cam Ward hasn't provided much evidence that this offense is ready to break out. Meanwhile, Baltimore comes home at 2-1 with Derrick Henry facing his former team and the Ravens laying a number that suggests Tennessee barely belongs on the same field. Public perception of these two teams could hardly be further apart.

The problem with laying 11½ is that Baltimore hasn't played like a team that deserves this kind of premium. The Ravens have allowed progressively more yardage in each of their first three games, culminating with 415 yards last week, and they've blown double-digit leads in consecutive games. There are also some concerns along the offensive line, and Baltimore returns home after making the long trip back from Brazil. None of that means the Ravens aren't considerably better than Tennessee. It means asking them to win by 12 or more is a much different proposition than simply asking them to win.

Tennessee's offense has been ugly, but its defense gives us something tangible to work with. The Titans have been competitive on that side of the ball, and that's important when taking this many points. Baltimore is being priced as though it's going to dictate the game from beginning to end, but its defense hasn't consistently allowed it to put opponents away. Tennessee doesn't need Ward to suddenly become Lamar Jackson. A couple of sustained drives and a defense capable of preventing this from becoming a rout could be enough.

There isn't going to be much appetite for an 0-3 Tennessee team against Baltimore, and that's reflected in an enormous number. The Ravens could control most of this game and win comfortably without ever creating enough separation to cover 11½. This is one of those uncomfortable tickets where the price matters considerably more than the teams' records. Recommendation: Tennessee +11½

NY Giants +2½ over Arizona

1:00 PM EST. Nobody is rushing to the window to bet the Giants after watching their offense the past two weeks, and Jameis Winston certainly isn't helping their market appeal. New York managed to beat Tennessee last week without scoring a touchdown, Winston completed barely half his passes, and now Brian Burns is gone for the season. Arizona, meanwhile, has already beaten the Chargers and was competitive against San Francisco last week. It's not difficult to understand why the Cardinals are attracting more respect. What is difficult to understand is why we're being offered points with the Giants at home.

Arizona's defensive numbers provide New York with an opportunity to get its offense unstuck. The Cardinals have been particularly vulnerable through the air, allowing nearly 250 passing yards per game, and Seattle and San Francisco also had significant success running against them. That's important because New York doesn't have to put the entire game on Winston. Cam Skattebo and Najee Harris can establish the run, create manageable situations and give Winston opportunities off play action against a secondary that has been giving up completions and yardage.

There's also a perception issue working in our favor. Arizona's defensive statistics can be excused somewhat because the Cardinals have faced the Chargers, Seahawks and 49ers, while New York's victory over Tennessee isn't going to impress anybody. That's all reasonable, but the market appears to have taken those explanations and pushed them too far. Arizona is still 1-2, ranks near the bottom of the league defensively and is now being asked to go on the road and win as the favorite.

The Giants aren't pretty, and that's the point. Their stock is low enough that a 2-1 New York team is catching points at MetLife against a 1-2 opponent. Arizona may be easier on the eyes right now, but we're not interested in paying a premium for appearances. In what figures to be a competitive game, we'll take the home dog and the points. Recommendation: NY Giants +2½

HOUSTON −3 over Dallas

1:00 PM EST. Houston opened as a 3½-point favorite, and that's where this discussion begins. We have always loved 3½-point favorites because the oddsmakers aren't casually hanging that hook on the most important number in football. Houston is 0-3, its offense has scored just 23 points over the past two weeks, and Dallas comes in with the better record and the more productive quarterback. Despite all of that, the Texans opened −3½. The market has since knocked off the hook and given us Houston −3, and we're happy to take the better number.

There is nothing attractive about Houston's offense right now. C.J. Stroud hasn't looked comfortable, the running game is producing only 3.6 yards per carry, and the possible return of Nico Collins would certainly help. But Houston's defense remains the strength of this team, and that's where we see the biggest difference between these clubs. Dallas has been giving up yards and points in bunches, while Houston's defense has repeatedly been asked to compensate for an offense that hasn't held up its end of the bargain.

The Cowboys are going to attract attention because Dak Prescott has played well and Houston hasn't won a game. That's exactly what makes this price interesting. If records and recent offensive production were all that mattered, Dallas wouldn't be catching a field goal. Instead, an 0-3 team was installed at −3½ against a Cowboys team that looks considerably better on the surface. That's not a number we're interested in arguing with.

Houston is desperate, at home, and has the defensive advantage in a matchup where the Texans don't need an offensive explosion. More importantly, we're no longer being asked to lay the hook that oddsmakers originally attached to this game. Houston −3 instead of −3½ is a significant upgrade on a key number. We'll trust the original price, take the discount the market has provided, and lay the field goal. Recommendation: Houston −3

New England +6½ over Buffalo

1:00 PM EST. If you're betting Buffalo here, we don't blame you one fucking bit. Seriously. Who in their right mind is taking New England? The Patriots have left such a sour taste in everyone's mouth that Listerine couldn't fix it. They've already been blown off the field twice, and Drake Maye hasn't made a good decision since sometime around Thanksgiving. Maye is taking more heat than a gas-station burrito at 2:00 in the morning, and he's earned every bit of it. One touchdown and six interceptions? Every time he drops back to pass, Patriots fans should receive an emergency alert on their phones. WARNING: DRAKE MAYE HAS THE FOOTBALL. SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY.

Meanwhile, Buffalo apparently doesn't even have to play well anymore. The Bills turned the ball over five freaking times against the Chargers last week. Five! In the NFL, five turnovers are usually followed by the head coach apologizing at the podium and the quarterback deleting his social media accounts. Buffalo did it and won the fucking game—and covered the spread. Historically, teams losing the turnover battle by four or more have won only a tiny fraction of those games. Buffalo basically drove into a brick wall five times, backed up, did it again, and still arrived home before the other guy.

And that's exactly why this game looks ridiculous. Buffalo is undefeated against the spread. Josh Allen is Josh Allen. New England just got its ass handed to it by Jacksonville. Maye is throwing interceptions like he's trying to get every defensive back in the league a contract extension. Put those ingredients together and Buffalo −6½ looks like the lock of the century. Your neighbor likes Buffalo. Your barber likes Buffalo. Your mailman likes Buffalo. Charlie Brown's fucking teacher is probably standing at the betting window going, “Wah wah wah, Bills minus six and a half.”

So here's our question: Why the fuck isn't Buffalo −7? Why aren't the oddsmakers making anyone who wants the undefeated Bills lay the full touchdown against this dumpster fire? Instead, they're dangling −6½—the exact number that makes Buffalo irresistible while giving New England one of our favorite underdog numbers in football. And don't expect Buffalo to get another five-turnover hall pass. What happened last week was an NFL magic trick, not something sustainable. The Bills can win this game. Hell, they probably should win this game. But when one side looks this fucking obvious and the number stops just short of seven, we'll grab our noses, turn off our televisions every time Maye drops back, and take the points. Recommendation: New England +6½

NY JETS +3½ over Chicago

1:00 PM EST. Welcome to the NFL zigzag, where everybody swears they'll never overreact to one game and then immediately overreacts to one game. Chicago went into Monday night with backup quarterback Case Keenum and practically nobody wanted them against Philadelphia. Keenum hadn't started an NFL game in 1,009 days, which is roughly the last time anyone willingly watched network television commercials, yet he came out throwing darts. He completed 24 of 34 passes for 247 yards and two touchdowns, Chicago won 27-7, and everybody who faded the Bears went home wondering what the hell just happened

Now comes the dangerous part. Those same bettors who wouldn't touch Chicago last week are going to line up to bet them this week because Keenum suddenly looked like he spent those 1,009 days training with Patrick Mahomes. That's the zigzag. You bet against a team, get your ass handed to you, and seven days later decide you're never making that mistake again. Actually, the bigger mistake is allowing one result to completely change your opinion. If Chicago was worth fading last week, there's arguably more reason to fade them now, after the market watched them dismantle Philadelphia on national television.

The situation couldn't be much better for New York. Chicago just played its Super Bowl on Monday night, beating Philadelphia in front of the entire country, and now the Bears have to get emotionally charged for the Jets before facing Green Bay next week. Philadelphia on Monday night, Jets in the middle, Packers on deck. If you're looking for a flat spot, somebody just put a giant neon sign over this one. Meanwhile, the Jets have quietly played much better football than their record suggests. They beat Tennessee, thoroughly outplayed Green Bay in a game they somehow managed to lose, and had Detroit in serious trouble last week before letting that one slip away. Change a handful of plays and we're talking about a Jets team that could easily be 3-0.

And don't overlook what New York brings defensively. The Jets currently own one of the league's best defenses, and Keenum isn't getting Philadelphia's defensive game plan again. New York now has a full game of current film showing exactly what Chicago did with him. The Bears deserve credit for last week's performance, but we're not interested in paying for it afterward. The market is zigging toward Chicago after one spectacular night. We'll zag the other way, take the hook and happily accept more than a field goal with the Jets. Recommendation: NY Jets +3½

Miami +10½ over Minnesota

1:00 PM EST. Do you really want to be holding a Minnesota −10½ ticket when it's 9-3 in the fourth quarter? Hell, we're not even sure we'd want Minnesota in a survivor pool this week, never mind asking them to win by 11. The Vikings are 3-0, their defense has been outstanding and their receivers are among the best in football. Wonderful. There's just one minor detail: Who the fuck is playing quarterback? Minnesota has spent the early part of this season treating the position like a deli counter. Take a number and somebody will eventually call your name. Second string, third string, Kyler Murray—at this point, we're half expecting Brett Favre to pull into the parking lot wearing Crocs.

Minnesota's 3-0 record has also covered up some pretty significant warts. Green Bay outplayed the Vikings for long stretches in Week 1 and was leading deep into the fourth quarter. Last week, Tampa Bay had an opportunity to take the lead late despite Baker Mayfield spending much of the afternoon giving the football away like Halloween candy. Minnesota keeps surviving these games, and every escape makes its record prettier and its stock more expensive. Now we're being asked to lay 10½ points with one of the least productive offenses in football. No thanks.

Miami is 0-3 and has lost every game by double digits, so nobody is going to feel particularly clever clicking the Dolphins button. They've also lost De'Von Achane for the season, which removes their most dangerous offensive weapon. We get it. Miami has problems. Lots of them. But we're not being asked to decide which team we'd rather own. We're being offered 10½ points against an undefeated team whose offense has done almost nothing to justify laying this kind of lumber. Malik Willis also brings mobility to the position, which at least gives Brian Flores something different to account for rather than allowing Minnesota's pass rush to tee off against a stationary target all afternoon.

This is where records become dangerous. One team says 3-0, the other says 0-3, and the natural reaction is to wonder why Minnesota isn't favored by 14. We're wondering the opposite. Why would anyone want to lay double digits with a Vikings team that could easily have lost two of its three games? Minnesota's defense may dominate. The Vikings may win again. They may even get to 4-0. But if this thing is 13-6, 12-3 or our personal favorite, 9-fucking-3, sometime in the fourth quarter, there is only one ticket we want in our pocket. Recommendation: Miami +10½

Denver +2½ over San Francisco

4:25 PM EST. At some point, San Francisco is going to run out of wide receivers. John Lynch might want to check whether Jerry Rice still has his cleats because the 49ers' receiving room is starting to look like the waiting room at an orthopedic clinic. Mike Evans is the latest casualty after suffering a rib injury last week, joining a list that already includes De'Zhaun Stribling, Demarcus Robertson, Christian Kirk and Ricky Pearsall. Throw in concerns elsewhere on the roster involving Trent Williams, Dre Greenlaw and Nick Bosa, and this is becoming less of an injury report and more of a missing-persons bulletin.

Give San Francisco credit because none of it has slowed them down yet. Brock Purdy has been outstanding, George Kittle remains one of the best security blankets in football, and Kyle Shanahan continues finding ways to manufacture offense regardless of who's available. But there's a difference between surviving injuries and being immune to them. San Francisco can't keep losing important pieces every week without eventually paying a price, particularly against a Denver defense capable of creating exactly the type of game-changing plays we saw against the Rams last week.

The Broncos haven't exactly made life easy on themselves. Their offense has developed an annoying habit of waiting until halftime before remembering there's a football game being played. But Bo Nix and this offense have repeatedly responded when things have gone sideways. Denver has rallied from double-digit deficits in consecutive weeks against Jacksonville and Los Angeles, and that ability to hang around matters when we're holding +2½. This is a team that doesn't disappear when it gets punched in the mouth.

San Francisco gets the home field and the respect that comes with its name, but we're being offered points with a Denver team whose defense can disrupt Purdy and whose quarterback has repeatedly demonstrated that he's comfortable playing from behind. Against a 49ers roster being held together with athletic tape, Advil and whatever spare body Kyle Shanahan can find, we'll happily take the points. Recommendation: Denver +2½

LA Chargers +7 over Seattle

4:05 PM EST. The point spread is the great equalizer, and thank God for that because there isn't another reason on earth we'd want anything to do with the Chargers right now. They're 0-3, their offense looks like it was designed by twelve people who have never met one another, and Mike McDaniel is taking enough heat that he might want to start wearing sunscreen indoors. If you're looking at this matchup and thinking, “There is no fucking way I'm betting the Chargers,” congratulations. You're probably in the same room as 90% of the betting public.

Last week might have been the masterpiece. Buffalo turned the football over five times. The Chargers won the turnover battle 5-1 and still couldn't win the game or cover the spread. Think about how difficult that is. Buffalo spent the afternoon repeatedly handing them the football and Los Angeles kept responding, “No thanks, we're good.” It was the kind of performance that makes you swear you'll never bet the Chargers again.

Now they travel to Seattle, and the setup couldn't make the Seahawks look much more attractive. Seattle is coming off a loss at Washington, so the immediate reaction is that the defending champs will return home angry and take it out on this hopeless Chargers team. Sam Darnold is back, Jaxon Smith-Njigba is tearing up the league, and Los Angeles is scoring barely 14 points per game. Seattle −7 practically fills out the betting slip for you. The only problem is that Seattle wasn't particularly sharp last week either, turning it over three times, and its running game has been compromised by injuries and personnel changes.

We absolutely hate taking the Chargers here. Hate it. We'd rather spend Sunday afternoon assembling IKEA furniture without the instructions. But that's exactly why the number exists. If Los Angeles were playing competent football, we wouldn't be getting a full touchdown. Seattle can bounce back and win this game without covering, and after three weeks of Chargers misery, the market isn't going to require much convincing to lay the seven. This is ugly, uncomfortable and potentially hazardous to your blood pressure. In other words, it's exactly the kind of NFL underdog we're interested in. Recommendation: LA Chargers +7

Carolina +3½ over Detroit

8:20 PM EST. If your immediate reaction is, “Detroit is only laying 3½ to Carolina?” you're probably not alone. The Lions are 3-0, they've scored exactly 31 points in every game, and Carolina just lost to Cleveland. Throw in the Panthers' growing injury list and Detroit −3½ is going to look awfully inviting. But the point spread is the great equalizer, and we're getting the hook with a home dog that has been moving the football much better than its reputation suggests.

Bryce Young quietly leads the NFL with 939 passing yards and has already thrown seven touchdowns. That's not a typo. The guy who has spent much of his career being treated like he needs a permission slip to throw the football is suddenly piling up nearly 300 yards a week. Carolina ranks among the league leaders in explosive plays, and even while Young was pressured relentlessly in Cleveland last week, he still threw for nearly 300 yards and had the Panthers in position to win. Detroit's defense presents opportunities, particularly on third down, where the Lions have had enormous difficulty getting off the field.

Carolina's injuries in the secondary are concerning. There's no point pretending otherwise. Jaycee Horn and Mike Jackson being unavailable gives Jared Goff, Amon-Ra St. Brown and Jameson Williams favorable matchups. But Detroit's defense has its own issues, and this doesn't have to become a defensive masterpiece for our ticket to cash. Carolina has demonstrated that it can move the football through the air, and if Young continues producing chunk plays, Detroit may have to score into the 30s again just to create separation.

That's ultimately the attraction here. We're not being asked to prove Carolina is better than Detroit. We're getting 3½ points at home with a quarterback playing the best football of his career against a defense that has been far less impressive than the Lions' perfect record suggests. Detroit may walk out of Charlotte 4-0, but laying more than a field goal on the road in a game where Carolina has enough offense to trade punches doesn't interest us. Give us the home dog and that beautiful hook. Recommendation: Carolina +3½