BET365     Sportsinteraction

Posted at 10:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

 Mackay Stadium, Reno, NV

Streaming: CBS Sports Network

Nevada +100 over Western Kentucky

10:30 PM EST. This one begins and ends with the market. Western Kentucky has been the vastly more successful program in recent years, while Nevada has been buried near the bottom of the Mountain West with consecutive three-win seasons. The Hilltoppers routinely win eight or nine games, go bowling and have become one of the more dependable Group-of-Five programs in the country. Nevada has become an afterthought. Yet Nevada opened as a 1½-point favorite, and the market immediately attacked that number, eventually flipping Western Kentucky into the favorite. As contrarian bettors, that's when our antenna goes up. When the market is buying, we're usually looking to sell.

That's especially true when the movement is toward the team everybody already wants to like. Western Kentucky has the winning pedigree, the recognizable recent résumé and last year's 31-16 victory over Nevada sitting there for everyone to see. Nevada brings consecutive three-win seasons and very little public appeal. So the move toward WKU feels perfectly logical—and that's precisely what makes it interesting. Markets overreact, and this has all the ingredients of one. Oddsmakers didn't mistakenly open Nevada -1½. They knew exactly how these two programs would be perceived, yet still initially made the Wolf Pack the favorite. Now we're being offered Nevada at a better price because the market disagreed. We'll gladly accept the discount.

Nevada's ugly record also disguises some legitimate progress under Jeff Choate. The Wolf Pack became more competitive last season even though it didn't translate into enough victories, and Choate now enters Year 3 with greater continuity along the offensive line and on defense. Western Kentucky, meanwhile, ranks near the bottom of the country in returning production and is introducing its sixth offensive coordinator in seven seasons. Even last year's 31-16 WKU victory deserves some context, as the final margin was padded by a 48-yard onside-kick return for a touchdown in the final 30 seconds. Now the game moves to Reno, where Nevada gets the home field and altitude against a Hilltoppers team replacing a mountain of production.

This is precisely the type of situation we're looking for. Nevada opened favored and is now being offered as the underdog without either team playing a snap. Nothing fundamentally changed about these teams—the market simply decided it preferred Western Kentucky. That's not something we're interested in chasing. We're buying Nevada when its stock remains near rock bottom and selling a WKU program whose recent success makes it considerably easier for the masses to trust. The market has spoken loudly, but loud doesn't necessarily mean right. In fact, sometimes it creates the opportunity. We'll step directly into the overreaction and take Nevada.

Take advantage of BET365's early NFL payout offer

Bet365 Early Payout – How It Works

Straight Bets:

If the team you back to win goes up by the designated number of points at any time during the game, BET365 will pay out your bet in full immediately, even if the opposing team later comes back and wins the game.

Parlays & Same Game Parlays:
If a team you’ve selected goes up by the designated number of points that selection will be marked as WON in My Bets. Any remaining legs of the parlay will continue to run as normal.

Once a selection is marked as won under the Early Payout rules, it cannot be reversed, regardless of what happens later in the game.

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------