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Posted at 10:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

Bridgeforth Stadium, Harrisonburg, VA

Streaming: ESPN U

Liberty +6½ over James Madison

12:00 PM EST. This is exactly the type of team we want to buy when almost nobody else does. Liberty's stock couldn't be much lower after a miserable 4-8 season that included losses to Bowling Green, Missouri State and Kennesaw State. But the record doesn't tell the entire story. The Flames endured three consecutive overtime losses, actually outgained opponents by 67 yards per game in Conference USA play, and finished minus-7 in turnovers. That's how a season can go completely sideways while creating tremendous value the following year. We're not interested in paying for what happened yesterday. We're interested in what the market is charging us today, and Liberty is being priced like last year's 4-8 record represents its true level.

Now look across the field. James Madison's stock is sitting at the opposite end of the spectrum after a spectacular 12-2 season, a Sun Belt championship and a trip to the College Football Playoff. The Dukes also hammered Liberty 31-13 last year, turning a 13-10 third-quarter deficit into 21 unanswered points while finishing with a 440-233 yard advantage. That's exactly the sort of result bettors remember. What they're less likely to appreciate is how much of that James Madison team has disappeared. Head coach Bob Chesney left for UCLA and took personnel with him, quarterback Alonza Barnett III departed for UCF, leading rusher Wayne Knight followed Chesney to UCLA, and four starters from the offensive line are gone. Billy Napier may prove to be an excellent hire, but he's inheriting one of the least experienced teams in the country and hasn't even settled on a starting quarterback. We're being asked to pay for last year's James Madison with a very different James Madison taking the field.

Liberty, meanwhile, is precisely the type of damaged stock we love. Jamey Chadwell didn't suddenly forget how to coach because a bunch of close games and turnovers went against him. He's 10-5-1 ATS as an away underdog, and the Flames have attacked the portal while returning enough offensive production to make a significant bounce-back entirely plausible. Liberty also has multiple experienced quarterback options for Chadwell's difficult-to-prepare-for offense. We don't have to know exactly which version of Liberty we're getting to recognize the price. A year ago, nobody wanted to step in front of the Flames. After one ugly season, nobody wants to step up and take them. That's when we're interested.

James Madison has been virtually unbeatable at home, and that's precisely why laying the points will feel so comfortable. But we're not buying comfort; we're buying value, and these two programs are being priced off results that have already happened. Liberty's misleading 4-8 season has depressed its value while James Madison's spectacular year has inflated theirs, despite a massive offseason turnover in Harrisonburg. Even the supplied computer projection makes this 31-25, essentially right on the number, and we believe the underlying circumstances favor the dog even more than that. Don't be surprised if Liberty threatens to win this thing outright. We'll gladly take the Flames +6½ while their stock is still sitting in the bargain bin.

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