BET365     Sportsinteraction

Posted at 10:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium, Memphis, TN

Streaming: ESPN+

Arkansas St +11½ over Memphis

Week Zero is fertile ground for overreaction because everybody in the country is starving for football. The board was littered with mismatches and enormous point spreads, which made Memphis-UNLV—lined at less than a touchdown—one of the few genuinely intriguing games available. The masses were salivating over it, and UNLV was the fashionable side. Then everybody watched Memphis walk into Las Vegas and win 27-21. Now comes one of our favorite market phenomena: the zigzag. The same bettors who wanted nothing to do with Memphis last week suddenly can't wait to lay double digits with them this week. They're not discovering Memphis. They're a week too late.

More importantly, that victory wasn't nearly as impressive as the final score makes it appear. UNLV outgained Memphis 460-418, led 21-14 in the third quarter and left plenty of points on the field. The Rebels missed a short field goal before halftime and later turned it over on downs twice in Memphis territory. Memphis scored the final 13 points and escaped with the victory, but that's precisely why this spot interests us: a misleading result played in front of an enormous audience has created an immediate premium. The Tigers also return home after playing a late game three time zones away, while Arkansas State has had the luxury of watching 60 minutes of Memphis tape without showing the Tigers anything of its own.

That's particularly useful because Arkansas State arrives with plenty of mystery. New offensive coordinator Garrett Altman could use multiple quarterbacks, including Texas transfer Trey Owens, and the Red Wolves return four starters along the offensive line. Butch Jones' program has quietly progressed, reaching three consecutive postseasons and winning back-to-back bowl games, and Jones has historically been comfortable in this role, going 18-12 ATS as an away underdog. There's also a meaningful special-teams edge in Arkansas State's favor. Meanwhile, Memphis is hardly a finished product. Charles Huff is working with a new staff and a heavily reconstructed roster. One victory over UNLV doesn't erase all the uncertainty that existed around this team seven days ago.

And here's the market question we keep coming back to: Would Memphis be laying 11½ here if everybody hadn't watched them beat UNLV last week? We don't believe so. In fact, recent history suggests having that Week Zero game under your belt isn't necessarily an advantage. Excluding spreads of 21 points or more, teams coming off a game against opponents making their season debut have covered only 28 of 71 games (39.4%) since 2016. Memphis has also been an unreliable home favorite, going 11-18-1 ATS in that role over the past six seasons. The Tigers may very well win, but we're not being asked to pick the winner. We're being handed double digits with the rested, prepared and largely unseen team against the team whose stock just soared on national television. That's an overreaction we're happy to attack. Arkansas State +11½.

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