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Posted at 11:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

Colorado +16 -110 over BYU

4:00 PM EST. The number is the story here. Colorado isn’t being asked to win in Provo — they’re being handed 16 points in a conference game between two flawed teams. That’s an overreaction to perception. BYU carries the ranking, the highlight offense, and the emotional bump of a big win, but oddsmakers know the public will lay points with the shinier résumé. That’s exactly when you step in and grab value. In a Big 12 game, with a total sitting in the 160s, covering 16 requires separation for 40 full minutes. That’s a tall order, especially for a BYU team that has struggled defensively for weeks.

Colorado’s recent results look ugly, but context matters. They’ve faced elite defensive teams and young rosters tend to look worse in bad matchups than they actually are. This is a different setup. BYU wants to run, trade shots, and stretch the floor — and that style keeps underdogs alive. The Buffaloes have multiple scoring options capable of stringing together runs, and against a defense that ranks near the bottom nationally in efficiency over the past month, they won’t need perfection to hang around. When the favorite doesn’t consistently get stops, laying a big number becomes dangerous.

Then there’s the situational angle. BYU is coming off an emotional win and sits in a stretch where bigger tests loom ahead. Human nature matters in college basketball. A ranked home favorite in a celebratory environment can win comfortably and still fail to cover a bloated spread. Colorado, meanwhile, has nothing to lose and everything to gain by turning this into a pace-and-space game. The market is pricing in a blowout; the matchup suggests volatility. Take the points. Colorado +16 isn’t about backing the better team — it’s about backing the better number.

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