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Posted at 11:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

East Carolina +5 -110 over Rice

2:00 PM EST Grabbing East Carolina plus the points comes down to market perception versus matchup reality. Rice enters with the slightly better record and more consistent offensive averages, but neither team has shown the ability to separate consistently from comparable opponents. The Owls are shooting just over 42% from the field on the season and rank near the bottom nationally in assists per game, which makes it difficult for them to build large margins. When you’re backing a favorite that doesn’t consistently create efficient half-court offense, laying multiple possessions becomes risky.

East Carolina, meanwhile, has the best individual scorer on the floor in Jordan Riley. Averaging over 23 points per game, he gives the Pirates a reliable late-game option who can keep them within striking distance even if the offense stalls. The Pirates also showed in their recent win over UTSA that they can generate balanced scoring and knock down free throws at a high rate when opportunities arise. Defensively, they protect the rim well with Giovanni Emejuru anchoring the paint, and that interior presence could neutralize some of Rice’s rebounding edge. If East Carolina controls the tempo and avoids extended scoring droughts, they have enough offensive firepower to stay inside the number.

From a value perspective, this shapes up as a tighter game than the spread suggests. Rice allows over 74 points per game and has struggled to put teams away, while East Carolina’s scoring average isn’t far behind Rice’s own output. When two teams profile similarly in efficiency and defensive metrics, the edge often lies with the underdog catching points — especially in a conference setting where familiarity limits surprises. Taking East Carolina with the points offers the stronger value play based on balance, scoring upside, and the likelihood of a competitive finish.

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