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Posted at 11:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

Louisiana Monroe +13.5 -110 over Texas St.

3:00 PM EST Texas State deserves to be favored at home, but laying double digit points in a conference matchup requires near-complete control for 40 minutes. The Bobcats won the first meeting by five points despite shooting over 50% from the field and dominating the paint. That’s a key detail — even with efficiency advantages and rebounding edges, they didn’t create true separation. Asking them to nearly triple that margin this time builds in a level of dominance that isn’t guaranteed.

Louisiana-Monroe’s record is ugly, but the Warhawks still have scoring punch. Krystian Lewis just dropped 32 points in their last outing, showing they can produce an individual performance capable of keeping a backdoor cover alive. The issue for ULM has been defensive consistency, not a total inability to score. In games where they find rhythm from the perimeter or generate transition opportunities, they can hang around long enough to make a big number uncomfortable. Conference familiarity also tightens margins — teams know personnel tendencies, and adjustments from the first meeting often reduce blowout risk.

From a value standpoint, this spread reflects overall season trajectories rather than the specific matchup dynamics. Texas State has been strong at home, but heavy favorites in league play often shift into game-management mode late if holding a comfortable lead. With a total sitting near 150, the pace suggests possessions will be there for both sides — and that increases the likelihood of variance. In a spot where the market leans heavily toward the favorite, grabbing Louisiana-Monroe getting double digits offers the sharper betting angle based on price alone.

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