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Posted at 11:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

Chicago +180 over Toronto  

8:00 PM EST There’s no question the Toronto Raptors have been the steadier side over the course of the season, but value isn’t about season-long stability — it’s about price versus perception. Toronto’s recent road covers and overall record will naturally draw action, especially against a team mired in a six-game losing streak. That’s precisely why the number matters here. Chicago’s skid has inflated the market against them, yet many of those losses came against high-end offensive teams. When expectations dip this low, the buy point often shows up. The Bulls return home with urgency, and desperation can be a powerful short-term equalizer in the NBA.

The Chicago Bulls still possess offensive firepower, ranking near the top of the league in assists and scoring efficiency. While the defense has been a major issue — particularly in transition and perimeter coverage — the offensive structure remains intact. If Josh Giddey suits up as expected, Chicago maintains a primary playmaker capable of dictating tempo and creating high-percentage looks. Toronto’s defense thrives on forcing turnovers, but if the Bulls protect the ball and turn this into a half-court execution battle, the matchup tightens considerably. Chicago has also shot the ball well enough at home to keep pace with teams that rely more on ball movement than isolation scoring.

From a betting perspective, this is about fading momentum bias. Toronto’s stronger record and recent head-to-head win will carry weight with the public, but the situational angle leans toward the home side responding. The Bulls’ defensive numbers are poor, yet those metrics are baked into the line. What isn’t fully priced in is regression — both in shooting variance and in effort. With their season teetering and a home crowd behind them, Chicago has the profile of a live underdog capable of flipping the narrative for a night. Taking the Bulls outright offers stronger value than chasing the perceived stability of the road favorite.

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