Posted at 12:45 PM EST. Odds subject to change.

Pinnacle +212 BET365 +210 Sportsinteraction +200 888Sport +200

Milwaukee over Indiana

Best Odds: +212 at Pinnacle

5:40 PM EST. Sharp bettors on public forums like to tell people that successful handicapping is all about the number, more than it's about the teams or any intangibles heading into a particular sporting event. They're right, and this game is the quintessential example of inflation in the NBA marketplace. 

It's not like we think the Indiana Pacers aren't a good team; they are. Indiana blew out the Bucks on Tuesday, shooting 55.6% from the field and out-muscling Milwaukee throughout the contest. On the road, Indiana outrebounded their opponent (45-40) and significantly out-scored them in the paint (52-36), an impressive feat considering how stingy the Bucks' front court can be, even without Giannis. It was the best version of the Pacers on Tuesday, a program that's now surging with Pascal Siakam in their lineup, a 2.0 version of their roster that's made them one of the NBA's best offenses since the trade. In stints, we've seen a Pacers' defense that can be very feisty and aggressive, too. Limiting the Bucks to just 44.4% from the field on Tuesday, including just 10/21 from the field for Damian Lillard, is what they can do when they catch a team off guard.

And we know that Doc Rivers' led outfits can be caught off guard, don't we? The old ball coach almost always brings his talented rosters to the playoffs, but then they go to die there shortly after. Inconsistency has been the brand of Rivers' teams of the past, but he doesn't get enough credit for how well he can coach up a defense. Under his direction, Milwaukee's resistance has starkly improved, earning top-10 marks in opponent three-point and effective field goal percentages this season. They also move slower (15th in tempo), which can take a rhythm-based offense like Indiana's out of its comfort zone. After allowing such pitiful marks in their last matchup, the Bucks will do their best to slow this one down and put down the clamps. We know they're capable.

The Bucks' roster is also full of players with deep playoff experience, a factor that cannot be understated in big contests like tonight's. Bobby Portis, Khris Middleton, Brook Lopez, Jae Crowder; the Bucks' core has been here before, and they've all performed at a very high level with and without Giannis in postseason battles of the recent past. Pascal Siakam was a depth piece on the Raptors a few years ago when they won an NBA championship, but other than him the Pacers are a group of inexperienced young guys. And now they're the favorites, expected to win at home against a perennial contender.

Today's line presents a gargantuan expectation for a Pacers' team that's barely sniffed any success. Milwaukee came into this season like they do every year, expecting an NBA title. While that prospective might seem lofty at this juncture, the playoffs and this series is far from over. Oddsmakers and sharp bettors are making a statement by pushing up the spread and price of the Pacers' moneyline. We're happy to fade this impulse and go with a veteran outfit that's been built for these moments. 

Farley

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Posted at 2:15 PM EST. Odds subject to change.

Pinnacle +179 BET365 +180 Sportsinteraction +165 888Sport +170

Minnesota over Phoenix

Best Odds: +180 at BET365 

10:40 PM EST. The Minnesota Timberwolves have taken an early stranglehold on their series against the Suns, going up 2-0 mostly because of their stifling resistance. Ending the regular season as the NBA's best defense, again the T-Wolves are proving that they're as legitimate as it gets on that side of the court, holding the uber-talented offense of the Suns to only 44% in game one and 45% from the field in game two. This shouldn't be surprising to anyone, though, because Phoenix's perception is way overblown at this point.

Although they had some moments where their offense showed its potential at certain points of the season, overall the Suns' offense hasn't been all that stellar. Full season they're 10th overall, okay that's pretty good, but their marks drop considerably at home, of all places. Since March 1, Phoenix owns the 24th best offense at home according to NBA advanced stats, a truly horrid rating considering how vital basketball games are in March and April. To get an idea of just how poor that designation is, try this out for size: the Heat, Bulls, Magic, Jazz, Nets, and even the Hornets are higher-rated in their own arena during the same span, an indication of offenses that tried their damndest at the end of the season.

But when the going gets tough, the Suns just aren't built for victory, especially against a defense as good as Minnesota's. The Wolves' two big-men crowd the painted area and make it difficult for any opposing player to score in the front court, and their guards are relentlessly aggressive on the perimeter. The Suns have one of the softest front courts in the NBA, with Jusuf Nurkic serving as their starting center and then virtually no depth behind the 7-footer. Bol-Bol's razor thin body isn't exactly equipped for the physicality of the playoffs. Where the Suns really get thrown off their game is when their stars are struggling, and they've all struggled mightily thus far. The Suns' "big-three," Beal, Booker, and Durant, combined for just 18-45 in game two (40%). Durant and Beal fared better in game one, but Devin Booker hasn't found any rhythm so far (5-16 in game one).

Market perception of Devin Booker has always been wrong, as we've attested to on shows and in articles for years at this point, since his 206-pound frame is too light and he's not tall enough or gifted enough to avoid stingy defenses in big game-moments. The Suns and their frustrated stars have had only 2 out of 8 productive quarters so far in this series. Eventually the Timberwolves get in their heads and make them uncomfortable, and at that point Phoenix runs out of answers. Low on depth and low on self-belief at this point, we have little reason to believe that anything will change in game three. Like the Nuggets' continuous humbling of the Lakers, expect more dominance from Minnesota tonight, probably after the first quarter. A live-wager might even get you a better price.

Farley

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