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Posted at 11:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

Phoenix +8 -110 over San Antonio

8:30 PM EST San Antonio’s surge has been impressive, but the market has fully adjusted to it. When a team strings together six straight wins and climbs near the top of the conference, spreads tend to inflate. That creates opportunity on the other side. The Spurs are winning games with defense and discipline, yet their offensive profile still leans heavily on one primary engine. In a matchup where possessions tighten and half-court execution matters, grabbing points with a capable underdog becomes attractive.

The rise of San Antonio Spurs has been fueled by elite defensive metrics and the continued dominance of Victor Wembanyama, but their style can naturally keep games within range. They are comfortable playing in lower-scoring environments, protecting the rim, and grinding opponents down. That approach often limits separation unless their perimeter shooting spikes. Phoenix, meanwhile, relies on ball movement and perimeter scoring, and when their rhythm is intact they can trade baskets with anyone. Even in losses, they have shown the ability to hang around deep into the fourth quarter, which is exactly what bettors want when holding a ticket with extra points.

From a situational standpoint, this shapes up as a tighter contest than the standings might suggest. Phoenix has already surpassed preseason expectations and continues to compete for playoff positioning, while San Antonio carries the weight of heightened expectations during its current streak. The pressure dynamic shifts slightly when the favorite is expected to roll. If the Suns control tempo and get balanced scoring, this becomes a one- or two-possession game late. In that scenario, the value clearly sits with Phoenix plus the number, especially if the line reflects public enthusiasm for the Spurs’ recent run rather than the true gap between these teams.

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