Posted at 2:15 PM EST. Odds subject to change.

Pinnacle +179 BET365 +180 Sportsinteraction +165 888Sport +170

Minnesota over Phoenix

Best Odds: +180 at BET365 

10:40 PM EST. The Minnesota Timberwolves have taken an early stranglehold on their series against the Suns, going up 2-0 mostly because of their stifling resistance. Ending the regular season as the NBA's best defense, again the T-Wolves are proving that they're as legitimate as it gets on that side of the court, holding the uber-talented offense of the Suns to only 44% in game one and 45% from the field in game two. This shouldn't be surprising to anyone, though, because Phoenix's perception is way overblown at this point.

Although they had some moments where their offense showed its potential at certain points of the season, overall the Suns' offense hasn't been all that stellar. Full season they're 10th overall, okay that's pretty good, but their marks drop considerably at home, of all places. Since March 1, Phoenix owns the 24th best offense at home according to NBA advanced stats, a truly horrid rating considering how vital basketball games are in March and April. To get an idea of just how poor that designation is, try this out for size: the Heat, Bulls, Magic, Jazz, Nets, and even the Hornets are higher-rated in their own arena during the same span, an indication of offenses that tried their damndest at the end of the season.

But when the going gets tough, the Suns just aren't built for victory, especially against a defense as good as Minnesota's. The Wolves' two big-men crowd the painted area and make it difficult for any opposing player to score in the front court, and their guards are relentlessly aggressive on the perimeter. The Suns have one of the softest front courts in the NBA, with Jusuf Nurkic serving as their starting center and then virtually no depth behind the 7-footer. Bol-Bol's razor thin body isn't exactly equipped for the physicality of the playoffs. Where the Suns really get thrown off their game is when their stars are struggling, and they've all struggled mightily thus far. The Suns' "big-three," Beal, Booker, and Durant, combined for just 18-45 in game two (40%). Durant and Beal fared better in game one, but Devin Booker hasn't found any rhythm so far (5-16 in game one).

Market perception of Devin Booker has always been wrong, as we've attested to on shows and in articles for years at this point, since his 206-pound frame is too light and he's not tall enough or gifted enough to avoid stingy defenses in big game-moments. The Suns and their frustrated stars have had only 2 out of 8 productive quarters so far in this series. Eventually the Timberwolves get in their heads and make them uncomfortable, and at that point Phoenix runs out of answers. Low on depth and low on self-belief at this point, we have little reason to believe that anything will change in game three. Like the Nuggets' continuous humbling of the Lakers, expect more dominance from Minnesota tonight, probably after the first quarter. A live-wager might even get you a better price.

Farley

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