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Posted at 10:30 AM EST. Odds subject to change.

NBA Playoffs: Western Conference Seminfinals

Dallas Mavericks @ Oklahoma City Thunder

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Wager: Oklahoma City 1Q -1½

10:10 PM EST. We'd be bold-faced lying if we said that first quarter bets were going well for us in the postseason. Let's change that tonight. The Oklahoma City Thunder have battled the Dallas Mavericks four times this season, averaging 242 ppg. That included a dud performance by the Mavericks in the regular season finale, where they only scored 86 points. Normally when these two teams clash, high-paced basketball shows up, a style that's more akin to the home team tonight. OKC is a top 3 rated offense and they run at a top-4 tempo at home this season, a recipe they use to stomp opposing defenses early. For the most part they've succeeded, accruing a 26-17 ATS record in the first quarter this season. They also beat up on Dallas in three out of four battles this year, scoring a staggering 124.5 ppg against Jason Kidd's defense, a figure the underdog must fear heading into the Western Semifinals. 

And OKC hasn't changed their style at all in the postseason. Sure, some of their totals were lower against the Pelicans. We give credit to a formidable New Orleans' defense, but the Thunder never decreased their tempo despite their opponent's drastically different approach. It was OKC's relentless attacks to the rim, nonstop, fast-paced offense, that granted them their wins, along with better-than-advertised defense, of course. This brand of scoring has given Dallas trouble this season, which we expect nice and early in Game 1.

The Mavericks are undoubtedly a better version of the flawed program we saw last season, but they must also be very tired right now. Just last Friday, Dallas was fending off the Clippers at home to seal their first round win. Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving looked lethargic towards the end, two stars leaned on heavily by Jason Kidd. The pairing averaged 82.5 minutes per game against LAC. The Thunder, on the other hand, are as fresh as a morning dew. OKC wrapped up a 4-0 series sweep against the Pelicans last Monday, granting the squad over a week of rest before their next challenge.

The Thunder were lackadaisical in their second battle against the Mavs in the regular season, their only loss in the first quarter and full game against Dallas this year, but otherwise they've dominated Luka's team. In three other affairs, they beat the Mavs by 6, 17, and 6 in three first quarters, overwhelming Dallas' more methodical roster with their blitzing offense. More rested, healthy, and comfortable against their opponent, we're getting a lovely spread here on a home team that's built to jar their enemy's resistance, especially when their energy is at its highest in the first 12 minutes. Count us in.

Farley

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