Posted at 9:30 AM EST. Odds subject to change.

Pinnacle -0½ -112 BET365 -0½ -110 Sportsinteraction -0½ -105 888Sport -1½ +110

Minnesota 1Q -0½ over Phoenix

Best Odds: -105 at Sportsinteraction

3:40 PM EST. Minnesota came so close to closing the regular season as the West's #1 seed, but a late season loss to Denver sealed their fate. Finishing in 3rd, there's still plenty to be optimistic about heading into the postseason, but not earning the #1 seed when it was in their grasp could prove to be a motivating factor moving forward. That's been the T-Wolves' brand of basketball anyway; aggressive, high-energy, with a chip on their shoulders, out to put the league on notice. The #1 seed felt too early for Chris Finch's program, but there's no denying they've transformed into a real contender.

The NBA market appears speculative. Home court is a huge advantage in the playoffs, Minnesota is completely healthy heading into game one, and they're the higher seed. Yet the T-Wolves are just 1½-point favorites full-game, a virtual pick-em.

We've talked at length about the Phoenix Suns in articles this season and we're sure you're aware how dangerous their big-3 is. Phoenix burned hot at the end of the season and managed to string together enough wins to avoid the play-in tournament, a small accomplishment for a franchise with much higher hopes. Regardless, they've beaten the T-Wolves three times in a row, sweeping their season series, and played some of their best defense we've seen from them all year in those three affairs. The Timberwolves' stingy defense, which ranks 1st overall, had issues stopping the Suns' potent attack. That only makes us want to bet on Minnesota more, who's proven to be a better overall team and owns a situational edge on Saturday, but it's also worth a pause... maybe the Suns just match up well against Minnesota? We don't have to pretend to know every reason why they won all 3 regular season contests, but deadly shooters tend to match up well against most defenses.

It's also worth mentioning that two of Phoenix's wins against Minnesota aren't good indicators of what we'll see on Saturday. Their first win was 5 months ago in mid-November, hardly an accurate painting of these two squads now, and the T-Wolves didn't seem to care about winning their season finale since they knew OKC was winning by margin and locking down the #1 seed. While the Suns' potential is worth respecting for the full game, we're not as shy about betting on the home team early.

The Target Center will be rocking, Minnesota has motivation to prove they're legit, they're seeking triple-revenge against their opponent, and the return of Karl-Anthony Towns tips the scales in Minnesota's favor. Although Jusef Nurkic does a solid enough job in the front court, he's no match for the length and physicality of the T-Wolves' bigs. Phoenix will need to catch fire immediately amidst a biased crowd, against the association's best defense. We're willing to bet against that happening.

Farley

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