Pinnacle U202 -110 BET365 U201½ -110 Sportsinteraction U201½ -110 888Sport U201½ -110

Posted at 11:45 AM EST. Odds subject to change.

Eastern Conference Playoffs, Round 1

New York @ Philadelphia, Game 6

Wager: Under 202

Best Odds: -105 at Pinnacle

9:10 PM EST. Hedging for OT might not be a bad idea tonight; this game profiles to be a stand up, final 10 seconds of Holloway/Gaethje type of battle and OT might be the only way it goes over tonight's number. The last two contests between the Knicks and 76ers ended at 196 points and 89 points, respectively, and each affair featured high-scoring runs from each team. New York scored 30 points in the second and third quarters of game 4, and Philly followed with a 32 point second quarter and a 27-point fourth quarter in game 5; the latter is a "if you know you know" type of red flag, since many fourth quarters in the playoffs tend to slow down and turn into very low-scoring affairs. We doubt either outfit will get anywhere near 30 points in one quarter for game 6. This is the math we must think about when betting totals.

In the NBA playoffs, low-scoring is commonly observed. Since Monday, as first round series get chippier, totals have averaged 202.3 ppg. That includes an array of high-scoring programs in that equation. The Sixers and Knicks have never been the highest-scoring teams this season, both in the average to below average category compared to other offenses, and they both run at very slow tempos (Philadelphia is 18th, New York is dead last at 30th). The animosity building between each team is obvious, and as we've seen since the postseason began - the refs are letting them play. Still, game 5 resulted in 42 personal combined fouls, a stark contrast to the regular season average for NBA teams (36-37), an indication of the physicality imposed by each defense. The Knicks and 76ers each shot 46% from the field, too, which is actually their season average (New York shot 46.4% this year, Philly 46.3%). They're both in the bottom third of that category, meaning it's been rather shocking to see them meet those marks in game 5. We're willing to bet that it won't happen again.

The Philadelphia crowd is likely to be overwhelmingly loud and obnoxious for the Knicks' offense tonight after following a game 4 where a gathering of Knicks' faithful were the loudest segment of the audience. The more these two rosters battle, the more it seems officials are getting out of the way. Pushing and shoving and colliding mid-air are constant on every possession, and we don't see another disparate free-throw shooting problem like we did in game 3; the referees received enough backlash for that already. Game 6 will feel more like a game 7, since the stakes get higher the longer the series goes on. The brand and methodology of the 76ers and Knicks starts with their defenses, as you know, which means we expect many 20-25 point quarters for each of these squads tonight. When a game with this profile still sits at a number like 200 or more, the under must be in consideration. We happen to love it.

Farley

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