NBA Playoffs Game 4
MEMPHIS +6 -109 over Utah

Pinnacle +6 -109 BET365 +5½ -110 SportsInteraction +5½ -105 BetOnlin+5½ -106 Bookmaker +5½ -110

Posted at 12:45 PM EST. 

MEMPHIS +6 -109 over Utah

9:40 PM EST. Eh, they’re not dead yet, these Grizzlies. One bad quarter – the first – was pretty much to blame for their Game 3 loss that tipped the series 2-1 Utah’s way. Forget the 14-2 end run made by the Jazz with 3;00 minutes left that propelled them to the cover as well as the straight-up win. Way too many early defensive breakdowns put Memphis in a hole that no underdog needs to be in. Utah has made 19 three pointers in Games 2 and 3, with 48.7% and 44.2% accuracy. While there’s no steadfast rule that the team that took the most three-pointers per game in the league (43) should shoot a lesser percentage than their average of 38.8% in the next game after bettering it by that much twice in a row, a regression is on the table as a distinct possibility, especially if the Grizzlies have their act together early. The home dog has the energy and style to create some defensive havoc, rebound as well or slightly better on both ends, and attack the paint with enough frequency and authority to offset Rudy Gobert’s rim protection.

What’s interesting to us is that there’s no overcompensating by the sportsbooks after back-to-back blowout wins for the Jazz, meaning they are encouraging all that easy money to keep it rolling on the Jazz. Before you pull the trigger on what looks like another easy cover, be aware that the books are not in the habit of bleeding money in these isolated playoff games. We expect to go 2-0 tonight with both these very live underdogs but trust that 1-1 is the worst case scenario.

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Our Pick

MEMPHIS +6 -109 (Risking 2.18 units - To Win: 2.00)

MILWAUKEE -5 -103 over Brooklyn