NBA Playoffs Game 4
MIAMI +4 -104 over Milwaukee

Pinnacle +4½ -104 BET365 +4½ -110 SportsInteraction +4½ -110 BetOnlin+4½ -110 Bookmaker +4½ -110

Posted at 12:00 PM EST. 

WASHINGTON +6½ over Philadelphia

1:30 PM EST. The Heat are down 0-3 andt are coming off back to back blowout losses to the mighty Bucks. The most recent was Thursday night, which was a 113-84 romp. The Heat have now been outscored by 63 points the last two games in case you were keeping track at home. So now what?

If one were in the business of predicting the outcomes of games, the choice would be simple. However, a free lunch is rare and when one is inclined to play the value, there is only one possible selection. Miami. The Heat were spotting less than a basket two nights ago and they got whacked again. Now they are taking back a bigger pile of points tonight, but is it really going to look like enough for anyone that has been watching this series?

A breakdown of Xs and Os is not necessary here, besides, what are we going to say? The Heat are going to buckle down and stop Giannis and Middleton? That Jimmy Butler is mad as hell so he'll surely shoot closer to his regular season average of 21.5 PPG rather than the 15.3 he's put up in this series? We'll save all nonsense for Chuck and the rest of the TNT panel, as they are the best at what they do. Chuck even said to “mortgage the house” on a series sweep.

We know that the closeout game is often the toughest to win because it is very hard to keep the pressure and intensity up when the other side is fighting for their playoff lives. We also know that we’re getting inflated points based on some severe recency bias that has the masses flocking to the favorite in this early Saturday afternoon tip. The name of the game is value and as such, we must not give in to the temptation of predicting games. Heat it is.

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Our Pick

MIAMI +4 -104 (Risking 2.08 units - To Win: 2.00)

MILWAUKEE -5 -103 over Brooklyn
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