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Posted at 10:00 AM EST. Odds are subject to change.

Arizona +130 over Boston

Mitch Bratt (LHP- Arizona) — 3.82 ERA

Alec Gamboa (LHP- Boston) — 1.59 ERA

7:10 PM EST. This is another spot where the market appears to be giving Boston too much credit based on a very small sample of work. Alec Gamboa has posted a 1.59 ERA, but that number comes from a limited body of work and needs to be viewed in the proper context. Mitch Bratt brings a 3.82 ERA into this matchup, and the gap between the two pitchers is simply not large enough to justify the type of price Boston is being asked to carry.

Bratt has shown enough in his current work to make Arizona an attractive side, particularly with the points available. The left-hander does not need to match Gamboa's ERA to make this a competitive game. What matters to us is his ability to limit damage, stay around the strike zone and give Arizona a chance to remain within striking distance. With both pitchers working from relatively small samples, we are not going to treat either ERA as a definitive representation of what we can expect today.

The value becomes even more appealing when we are taking the points rather than demanding an outright victory. Arizona has a much larger margin for error with the run line, and a close game throughout would be enough to put us in position to cash the ticket. Gamboa's early results have been excellent, but we are not willing to price Boston as though a 1.59 ERA automatically translates into a major pitching advantage.

We are taking Arizona on the road. Both pitchers are working with small samples, and that makes the current price on Boston far too aggressive for our liking. We will take the cushion, trust Bratt to keep this game close and back the Diamondbacks to stay within the number today.

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